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Jakarta detik- Bank Indonesia (BI) memproyeksikan Amerika Serikat (AS) di bawah kepemimpinan Presiden Donald Trump akan mengetatkan kebijakan moneternya. Hal tersebut diungkapkan Deputi Gubernur Senior BI, Mirza Adityaswara, pada saat acara The Impact of Trumponomics on Indonesia di Museum Bank Indonesia, Jakarta, Rabu (5/4/2017).
Paris - Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump mengucapkan selamat kepada calon presiden Prancis Emmanuel Macron, yang unggul pada hasil exit poll, lewat aku twitter pribadi miliknya, @RealDonaldTrump. Trump menyebut dirinya sudah tidak sabar ingin bekerjasama dengan Macron.
"Selamat untuk Emmanuel Macron atas kemenangan besarnya hari ini sebagai Presiden Prancis selanjutnya. Saya sangat ingin bekerja sama dengan anda," tulis Trump seperti dilansir CNN, Senin (8/5/2017).
Selain Trump, mantan Presiden AS Bill Clinton juga mengucapkan selamat pada Macron. Dalam akun twitter resmi miliknya, @billclinton, Dia mengucapkan selamat pada Macron. Tak hanya Macron, Clinton juga mengucapkan selamat pada warga Prancis.
"Selamat pada Presiden terpilih @EmmanuelMacron dan semua warga Prancis," tulis Clinton di akun twitternya.
Sebelum Trump, beberapa kepala negara sudah menyampaikan ucapan selamatnya kepada Macron. Mereka antara lain juru bicara Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel, juru bicara Perdana Menteri Inggris Theresa May, Presiden Komisi Eropa Jean-Claude Juncker, Perdana Menteri Denmark Lars Lokke Rasmussen dan Perdana Menteri Swedia Stefan Lofven.
Hasil exit poll dari sebuah lembaga survei independen menyebutkan Macron unggul 65,9 persen, sedangkan Le Pen mendapat 34,1 persen.
Sementara itu, kantor berita AFP menyebutkan bayangan kemenangan Macron sudah dekat dan akan menjadi kemenangan 'bersejarah, hasil besar' dalam Pilpres Prancis sepanjang sejarah.
Presiden terpilih akan dilantik paling lambat 14 Mei untuk menggantikan Presiden Francois Hollande.
(bis/dhn)
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The youngest French leader since the Emperor Napoleon walked through the courtyards of the Louvre in central Paris alone, to the sound of Beethoven's "Ode to Joy," the European anthem on Sunday night on his way to speak to thousands of his supporters.
"A new chapter in our long history has opened this evening. I would like it to be one of hope and renewed confidence," said independent French President-elect Emmanuel Macron after declaring victory in France's presidential election on Sunday. "I will use all the energy I have to earn (the people's) trust."
Macron addressed supporters in the courtyard of the Louvre in central Paris
Macron said that Europe and the world was "watching us" and "waiting for us to defend the spirit of the Enlightenment, threatened in so many places."
France, the president-elect admitted, was facing an "immense task," in reinforcing European unity, fixing the economy and ensuring the country's security in the face of terror threats.
Addressing the concerns of his rival's voters, Macron promised to address the "anger, anxiety and doubts" in France, as worries about economic insecurity and increasing immigration were prominent themes of far-right National Front (FN) candidate Marine Le Pen's campaign.
Frankreich Emmanuel Macron hält Rede nach Wahl (REUTERS/Pool/L. Bonaventure)
Macron addressed voters at his campaign headquarters after the early run-off results
"Today they (Le Pen voters) expressed a sense of rage, of helplesness; sometimes, convictions... I will do all I can in my five years to ensure that there will no longer be any reason to vote for the extremes," the country's youngest president-elect said. "I will fight the divisions that undermine France," .
He also promised to combat climate change and fight terrorism in his victory speech.
Telephone call with Merkel
A source close to Macron told the Reuters news agency he had spoken with Chancellor Merkel on Sunday night and said he would travel to Berlin "very quickly." Merkel's spokesman said she had telephoned Macron to congratulate him on his victory, and "praised his stance for a united and open European Union during the campaign" and that "the decision of the French voters is a clear statement of support for Europe."
Merkel "looked forward to working together with the new president on the basis of trust in the spirit of the traditional German-French friendship," her spokesman Steffen Seibert said.
Le Pen concedes defeat
The former banker and economy minister achieved a clear victory over Le Pen, with initial results showing a margin of around 65 percent to 35 percent. The 39-year-old founder and leader of the independent En Marche! (On the move!) movement has proven that the French preferred a relative newcomer to the anti-immigrant Le Pen, who has spent years moving her party away from the extreme right fringes in an effort to make it more palatable to French voters.
The former economy minister ran on a pro-European Union platform that has embraced regulated immigration and social-liberal policies that he hoped would unite the left and right of the political spectrum. Although he garnered 24 percent of the vote to top the first round of voting on April 24, the last week of the campaign was marred by an insult-laden television debate with Le Pen and a huge leak of hacked emails from his camp last Friday. En Marche! has said that fake documents were mixed in with real data as part of an effort to "create confusion" ahead of Sunday's polls.
Read how the election unfolded here.
In a brief concession speech, Le Pen said the FN would have to "profoundly renew itself to be equal to this historic opportunity and the expectations expressed by the French in this second round."
"I suggest we begin a profound transformation of our movement to create a new political force," she added. "I call on all patriots to join us."
Marine Le Pen concedes defeat
Earlier in the day, the FN had earned the ire of several major media outlets after refusing them entry to its election event. Citing "overcrowding," the nationalists barred journalists from organizations such as Sky News, Buzzfeed, The Atlantic, Le Monde, and Italian public broadcaster Rai.
Europe breathes a sigh of relief
The reaction around Europe was definitely one of satisfaction. After the surprising results of last year's Brexit vote and the election of US President Donald Trump, there had been worries that Le Pen's strong polling numbers in the first round of voting (21 percent) meant that right-wing populism might emerge victorious in France as well.
Current French President Francois Hollande was one of the first to praise the success of his former economy minister, saying the French people had chosen to stick with the "values of the republic."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert hailed the "victory for a strong and united Europe." Macron has repeatedly called for further European integration. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the president-elect that he was "happy that the ideas that you defended of a strong and progressive Europe that protects all its citizens will be those that France will cherish under your presidency."
Even as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, Prime Minister Theresa May also "warmly congratulated" the French centrist on his victory. US President Donald Trump took to Twitter to offer similar sentiments, adding that "I look very much forward to working with him!"
As darkness settled around Paris, Macron's ecstatic supports showed no signs of ending their party in Louvre museum courtyard, singing and waving French flags in celebration.
Low turnout
The election's final turnout was expected to reach around 75 percent - the lowest representation since 1969.
A national turnout of just over 65 percent was recorded by 5pm local time (1500 UTC), three hours before the final polling stations closed. That was more than six points lower than the 72 percent recorded at that time in 2012 and nearly 10 points down from 2007.
According to reports, some 5 million blank votes were cast, characterizing this year's highly divisive election and its many disgruntled voters.
es,dm/tj (AP, AFP, dpa, Reuters)
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Mirza mengatakan, Trumponomics merupakan istilah baru bagi Indonesia, mengenai kebijakan Trump, khususnya di bidang moneter. Perekonomian Indonesia akan dihadapkan pada situasi ketidakpastian, sama seperti halnya di 2016 saat terjadi British Exit (Brexit).
"Amerika akan terus ketatkan policy, dan menerbitkan kebijakan yang revolusioner," kata Mirza.
Pengetatan kebijakan sudah dimulai sejak Bank Sentral AS menaikkan suku bunga acuan atau Fed Fund Rate (FFR) sebesar 0,25% yang diduga akan terus berlanjut lagi tren kenaikkannya hingga akhir 2017.
"Jika AS target inflasi 2% minimum, normal rate of ineterst FFR harus sekitar 2%. Kalau kita asumsi AS interest rate 2%, kita harus persiapkan diri. Ada era di mana suku bunga acuan AS berada di kisaran 5% belum lama ini," tambahnya.
Mirza menuturkan, suku bunga acuan AS pernah mencapai 6% pada saat era dotcom bubble alias sektor internet negeri Paman Sam merajalela pada tahun 2000-an. Namun, pada saat krisis global suku bunga acuan turun ke 0,25%.
Tidak hanya itu, pengetatan kebijakan moneter AS juga dilakukan dengan diterbitkannya executive order mengenai sektor perdagangan, yang intinya AS tengah melacak negara-negara mitra dagangnya yang terbukti membuat neraca perdagangannya defisit.
Mirza menyebutkan, Indonesia dapat dipastikan bukan negara yang membuat neraca perdagangan AS menjadi defisit. Meski begitu, kata dia, pemerintah harus tetap memonitor perkembangan dari kebijakan tersebut.
"Kriteria bukan kita. Tapi tentu saja kita pemerintah dan BI serta stakeholders harus monitor tentang kebijakan apa dari AS yang akan dilaporkan pada executive order," ujarnya (hns/hns)
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| WASHINGTON
President Donald Trump suffered a stunning political setback on Friday in a Congress controlled by his own party when Republican leaders pulled legislation to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system, a major 2016 election campaign promise of the president and his allies.
House of Representatives leaders yanked the bill after a rebellion by Republican moderates and the party's most conservative lawmakers left them short of votes, ensuring that Trump's first major legislative initiative since taking office on Jan. 20 ended in failure. Democrats were unified against it.
House Republicans had planned a vote on the measure after Trump late on Thursday cut off negotiations with Republicans who had balked at the plan and issued an ultimatum to vote on Friday, win or lose. But desperate lobbying by the White House and Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan was unable to round up the 216 votes needed for passage.
"We learned a lot about loyalty. We learned a lot about the vote-getting process," Trump told reporters at the White House, although he sought to shift the blame to the Democrats even though his party controls the White House, the House and the Senate.
With Friday's legislative collapse, Democratic former President Barack Obama's signature domestic policy achievement, the 2010 Affordable Care Act - known as Obamacare - remains in place despite seven years of Republican promises to dismantle it.
The healthcare failure called into question not only Trump's ability to get other key parts of his agenda, including tax cuts and a boost in infrastructure spending, through Congress, but the Republican Party's capacity to govern effectively.
Neither Trump nor Ryan indicated any plans to try to tackle healthcare legislation again anytime soon. Trump said he would turn his attention to getting "big tax cuts" through Congress, another tricky proposition.
Republican supporters said the legislation would achieve their goal of rolling back the government's "nanny state" role in healthcare. The White House made undoing Obamacare its top priority when Trump took office two months ago.
But the White House and House leaders were unable to come up with a plan that satisfied the clashing interests of moderates and conservatives, despite Trump's vaunted image as a deal maker.
Amid a chaotic scramble for votes, Ryan, who championed the bill, met with Trump at the White House. Ryan said he recommended that it be withdrawn from the House floor because he did not have the votes to pass it, and Trump agreed.
"We were just probably anywhere from 10 to 15 votes short," Trump said. "With no Democrat support we couldn't quite get there."
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said the bill failed "because of two traits that have plagued the Trump presidency since he took office: incompetence and broken promises."
Democrats said the bill would take away medical insurance from millions of Americans and leave the more-than-$3 trillion U.S. healthcare system in disarray.
And some moderate Republicans opposed the bill because of worries that millions of America would be hurt.
"There were things in this bill that I didn't particularly like," Trump added, without specifying what those were, but expressed confidence in Ryan's leadership.
"Perhaps the best thing that could happen is exactly what happened today, because we'll end up with a truly great healthcare bill in the future after this mess known as Obamacare explodes," said Trump, who had posted multiple tweets throughout March proclaiming that "Obamacare is imploding" and repeatedly saying that Republicans were coming together to pass the bill.
Friday's events cast doubt on whether Ryan can get major legislation approved by fractious Republican lawmakers.
"I will not sugarcoat this. This is a disappointing day for us. Doing big things is hard," Ryan said at a news conference, adding that his fellow Republicans are experiencing what he called "growing pains" transitioning from an opposition party to a governing party.
"Obamacare's the law of the land," Ryan added. "We're going to be living with Obamacare for the foreseeable future."
"A LITTLE SURPRISED"
Members of the Freedom Caucus, the House's most conservative members, were instrumental in the bill's failure, opposing it among other reasons because they considered parts too similar to Obamacare.
Trump said he was disappointed and "a little surprised" with the Freedom Caucus opposition.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said under the Republican legislation 14 million people would lose medical coverage by next year and more than 24 million would be uninsured in 2026.
News that the bill had been pulled before a final vote was greeted initially with a small sigh of relief by U.S. equity investors, who earlier in the week had been fretful that an outright defeat would damage Trump's other priorities, such as tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Benchmark U.S. stock market indexes ended the session mixed after rallying back from session lows following the news. The S&P 500 Index ended fractionally lower, the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped about 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose about 0.2 percent.
Shares of hospital operators finished sharply higher, with the S&P healthcare facilities index up 2.7 percent, while the S&P 500 healthcare sector edged down 0.03 percent. The dollar strengthened modestly on the news, and U.S. Treasury bond yields edged up from session lows.
Trump said he would be "totally open" to working with Democrats on healthcare "when they all become civilized." House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi said working to lower prescription drug prices was one area of possible cooperation with Republicans.
Republican Representative Dana Rohrabacher said before the bill was pulled that voting it down would be "neutering Trump" while empowering his opponents.
"You don't cut the balls off a bull and then expect that he can go out and get the job done," Rohrabacher told Reuters. "This will emasculate Trump and we can't do that. ... If we bring this down now, Trump will have lost all of his leverage to pass whatever bill it is, whether it's the tax bill or whatever reforms that he wants."
Representative Joe Barton of Texas, when asked why his fellow Republicans were so united over the past seven years to dump Obamacare only to fall apart when they actually do something about it, said, "Sometimes you're playing fantasy football and sometimes you’re in the real game."
Obamacare boosted the number of Americans with health insurance through mandates on individuals and employers, and income-based subsidies. About 20 million Americans gained insurance coverage through the law.
The House plan would have rescinded a range of taxes created by Obamacare, ended a penalty on people who refuse to obtain health insurance, and ended Obamacare's income-based subsidies to help people buy insurance while creating less-generous age-based tax credits
It also would have ended Obamacare's expansion of the Medicaid state-federal insurance program for the poor, cut future federal Medicaid funding and let states impose work requirements on some Medicaid recipients.
House leaders agreed to a series of last-minute changes to try to win over disgruntled conservatives, including ending the Obamacare requirement that insurers cover certain "essential benefits" such as maternity care, mental health services and prescription drug coverage.
Click on the links below for related graphics:
Graphic on Obamacare and Republican healthcare bill (tmsnrt.rs/2n0ZMKf)
Graphic on poll on Americans' views of the Republican healthcare bill (tmsnrt.rs/2n7f3e4)
(Additional reporting by Dustin Volz, David Morgan, David Lawder, Susan Cornwell, Susan Heavey, Richard Cowan, Steve Holland, Roberta Rampton, Patricia Zengerle and Doina Chiacu; Writing by Will Dunham; Editing by Bill Rigby and Leslie Adler)
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quora: by newsweek: Answer from William Murphy, professor of American history:
Manufacturing is not dead in the United States. In fact, manufacturing output in the United States has doubled since 1984. So the U.S. still makes lots and lots and lots of stuff, and our manufacturing output overall has been rising. So what gives? Why do people think manufacturing is in decline?
Because manufacturing jobs have declined a lot. Some of this is the result of outsourcing to other countries. But a great deal more has been the result of technology and automation. Manufacturing productivity has improved by a factor of three over the last 40 years. This means that even though we make more stuff than we used to, we use fewer workers (and less time) to do it.
Technological change often leads to improvements in productivity that in turn lead to reductions in the workforce even as output is increasing. It’s not hard to see why when you really look.
This is a picture of an automobile assembly line in 1948:Photo credit: The Tucker Engine Assembly Line
This is an automobile assembly line today:Photo credit: Last Car Plant Brings Detroit Hope and Cash
See the difference?
So this is a major reason why people think U.S. manufacturing has basically disappeared. Far fewer people have factory jobs than was the case decades ago. Some of this is because those jobs were sent to countries with lower labor costs. And some of that outsourcing was accelerated by trade deals like NAFTA. But robots take away far more jobs than Mexican or Chinese workers do.
The appearance of the collapse of manufacturing is fueled by the fact that there are many towns and communities in some parts of the U.S., especially the so-called “Rust Belt,” where the local factory was pretty much the sole employer for everyone who lived there. And when that factory closed or cut back on its workforce for one reason or another, the consequences were dire for the people living in those communities. And those people are, and have been, angry at the loss of their livelihood.
This is not really something new. In the second half of the 19th century, many farming communities were in decline, even as overall farm output was increasing. This was because of improvements in productivity as a result of first steam-powered and then internal-combustion powered tractors, mechanical reapers and harvesters, and other advanced tools and equipment that became available. In 1900, it took farm workers four hours to do the same job it took 60 hours to do 60 years earlier. This was devastating for many small rural communities, so much so that farmers organized into groups like the Grange, the Farmer’s Alliance and ultimately the Populist Party in the 1890s in an attempt to force the adoption of government policies they thought would revive their communities and improve their economic fortunes.
People in the Rust Belt are doing something similar today. They were waiting for someone like Trump to come along. Up until now, both parties had basically told them the jobs and the life they remembered from decades ago were gone forever. And they said this while pursuing policies that contributed to the loss of more industrial jobs. But then Trump arrived, and said that he would bring those jobs back, and would reject those policies, even though trade policy is not the biggest reason manufacturing jobs have declined, as I pointed out above. Here’s the thing, though; nobody will take you seriously if you say you’re going to make factories become less automated. Nobody believes this will happen. But if you say, “I’ll stop companies from moving jobs oversees and get them to bring jobs back,” well, that sounds at least potentially credible. It’s probably not realistic but it’s what people want to hear. It’s what people in those declining communities that depended on one local factory for their livelihood want to hear. They certainly do not want to hear that those jobs are never coming back.
But many of them simply are not.
None of this means that you cannot develop government policies that will promote the expansion of manufacturing. This is certainly something that should be achievable. But Trump is basically telling these declining manufacturing towns that he will restore them to their former glory and bring jobs flooding back to them.
So is that “out of touch”? Well, it’s not very realistic.
Many of those Rust Belt communities grew up during and immediately after World War II, when there was an unprecedented expansion of American industry. For years after the war, the U.S. had virtually unrivaled domination of the international market for complex manufactured products like cars, refrigerators, televisions… the leading industrial nations in the world aside from the U.S. had their industrial infrastructures gutted by the war. It took years for them to rebuild and then years more for them to overcome the competitive advantage the U.S. had developed from owning such a large share of the marketplace for so long — they had to overcome the inertia of customers just buying American products because that’s what they had done for so long. But by the late 1950s U.S. global market share was already declining as foreign competition had recovered from the war and its aftermath. This led to a gradual but steady decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs that has never really stopped. Some of this was declining market share for American products; some of it was the result of globalization and the shifting of jobs to countries with lower labor costs; most of it was the result of technology increasing productivity.
But in those communities that grew up around factories built to win the war, all people knew was that there were fewer and fewer jobs available for people who lived there. And as the factory jobs dwindled, the tax base for these communities shriveled up; property values dropped, schools and services declined, and young people who had any hope of a better life looked to move away as soon as they were old enough.
Trump is promising the people living in those communities that he can reverse all of that.
He almost certainly cannot. I don’t know if it’s right to call that “out of touch.” It might simply be that Trump doesn’t really understand why manufacturing jobs have declined. It may be that he understands just fine but he’s just saying what his audience wants to hear. Either way, he is either ignoring or denying the reality of rising U.S. manufacturing output. He’s focusing on raw numbers of jobs, and seems to be assuming that trade deals are the reason those jobs have declined, and seems also to be assuming that better deals or different deals or no deals at all would bring jobs back, and not just bring them back, but bring them back to the exact same places where they were lost over the past several decades.
It used to be that pretty much all car factories were in Michigan. Today some of the factories that once built cars in Michigan are closed. But there are factories that build cars in places like Tennessee that did not exist when Detroit was the center of the automotive world. There’s no guarantee that policies that actually could bring back some of those lost jobs would bring them back to the places where people are angry about having lost them in the past.
None of this is to say that it’s impossible to adopt policies that would promote an increase in manufacturing jobs in the U.S. Countries like Germany have promoted industrial policies that maintain a highly skilled manufacturing workforce who, because of their skill and education levels, cannot easily be outsourced to countries with low labor costs. The U.S. could certainly pursue such policies, focusing on promoting high-end and high-tech manufacturing and maintaining the highly educated workforce to support such jobs.
To an extent, this is what globalization is supposed to do; the low-skilled, low-paying jobs move to countries with low labor costs (and unskilled workforces) while the more complex manufacturing jobs (that pay more) remain in countries with more highly skilled and educated workforces. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, textile manufacturing (clothing) was one of the largest segments of American industry. Today, nobody is calling for bringing textile manufacturing back to the U.S. from countries like Bangladesh, because the jobs pay too little for American workers to want them. And Americans don’t want to pay more for their clothes, so they really don’t want to see textile labor costs rise.
But even if the U.S. could develop the kind of educational and industrial policies to consistently promote the expansion of advanced manufacturing jobs as an overall share of the economy, that’s not going to help people in Rust Belt towns where the local auto parts factory closed 20 years ago and now the people living there feel like they have no hope for a better life. It’s these kinds of people who voted for Trump; they don’t want their communities to die. They don’t want to be told to move if they want to find a job. They don’t want to hear that their kids should leave town as soon as they are old enough. They want things to be the way they were in an idealized past.
And Trump has promised he can deliver that. Is that “out of touch”? Like I said, I don’t think that’s the best way of describing it. The most charitable term I could suggest might be “unrealistic.”
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nikkei asian review: The loss of manufacturing jobs over the past generation has taken a particularly heavy toll in the U.S. As Nicholas Eberstadt pointed out in a powerful recent article for Commentary magazine, "per capita growth in America has averaged less than 1% a year" from 2000 to 2016, a sharp decline from the 2.3% annual growth the U.S. enjoyed from 1948 to 2000. In addition, Trump is right that the official U.S. unemployment rate is deceptive because it does not include the growing numbers of working-age Americans who have stopped actively looking for work. Not coincidentally, addiction to drugs, both legal and illegal, has spiked over the past generation. Eberstadt cites a study conducted in 2016 by Alan Krueger, former chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, which found that nearly half of all male working-age Americans who have dropped out of the economy now take pain medication daily. Among these legions of the disaffected there is demand for system-upending change. Trump has promised to deliver it.
Yet, debt-wary lawmakers will ensure that Trump's promises to invest historic sums to upgrade substandard U.S. roads, bridges, ports and airports will take longer than he expects and produce a smaller package than promised. Further, the new president won't deliver on the most ambitious of his plans -- to sharply cut the corporate tax rate. In fact, Congress won't accomplish much of anything until Trump and the Republican Party leadership find a way to credibly end the Obama health care program without stripping millions of voters of their health insurance, assuming that's possible.
Trump will spend much more on the Pentagon, though the new money won't change his opinion that U.S. military might should be used exclusively to advance narrowly defined U.S. security and commercial interests. Trade won't be back on the agenda anytime soon. Mega-deals with Asian and European partners are dead. Potential deals with Britain and Japan will take years to negotiate. Other agreements are unlikely, at least for now.
AI obstacle
It's also inevitable that, in the U.S. as elsewhere, more jobs will be lost to advances in automation and the expansion of artificial intelligence in the workplace. A 2015 study conducted by Ball State University found that automation and related factors, not trade, accounted for 88% of lost manufacturing jobs. In addition, artificial intelligence is reducing the number of -- and changing the skill sets needed for -- a fast-growing number of service sector jobs. More than half of jobs in the retail sector could be lost, and two-thirds of jobs in the finance and insurance sectors are likely to disappear when computers are able to understand speech as well as humans do, according to the study. That might be the biggest obstacle to Trump's plans to put middle- and working-class voters back to work.
Economic frustration will make the U.S. an even less predictable international actor, because Trump has persuaded his core supporters that outsiders -- China and Mexico, in particular -- are to blame for "stealing" U.S. jobs and that some allies are free-riding on U.S. military support. If the real U.S. economy continues to generate growth and wealth without jobs, and more working-class Americans feel left behind, Trump's search for scapegoats will become an even more important part of his foreign and trade policies.
As if Donald J. Trump weren't unpredictable enough.
Bisnis.com JAKARTA – Kendati pidato Presiden Amerikat Serikat Donald Trump dinilai tidak akan berpengaruh ke pasar, tetapi pelaku pasar diharapkan mewaspadai pergerakan dolar AS dan harga komoditas ke depan.
Berdasarkan Bloomberg (1/3/2017), Trump mengajukan ke kongres untuk bisa menggelontorkan belanja pemerintah (government spending) sebanyak US$1 triliun untuk investasi infrastruktur.
Selain itu, Trump juga mempercayai harus ada perdagangan yang adil, meski dia juga mempercayai soal perdagangan bebas. Tak hanya itu, dia mengungkapkan jika pemerintah As peduli terhadap pekerja maka harus ada perubahaan secara legal pada imigrasi.
Senior Analis dari PT Binaartha Parama Sekuritas Reza Priyambada mengatakan pidato Trump tersebut lebih memberikan harapan akan kemajuan, pekerjaan dan kesejahteraan. Namun, sayangnya, dia menilai pidato tersebut kurang menggambarkan secara detail bagaimana hal-hal tersebut akan dilakukan dan bagaimana mendanai pos-pos tersebut.
Menurutnya, pidato tersebut tidak menyinggung mengenai hubungan dagang negara sehingga asumsinya tidak akan berpengaruh langsung terhadap pasar terutama indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) dan Rupiah.
“Tetapi, harus dilihat juga imbas pidato tersebut ke pergerakan dolar AS dan komoditas global karena nanti itu yang akan berpengaruh ke market di Indonesia. Jadi, terkena imbas secara tidak langsung,” ujarnya saat dihubungi, Rabu (1/3/2017).
Adapun, pada perdagangan Rabu (1/3/2017), IHSG melemah 0,44% dan ditutup pada Rp5.386,69. IHSG bergerak dari Rp5.350,91 ke Rp5.391,54. Berdasarkan data Bloomberg, di pasar spot pada perdagangan Rabu (1/3/2017) pukul 3.59 waktu setempat, dolar AS menguat 0,19% terhadap Rupiah menjadi Rp13.363 per dolar AS.
Sepanjang 2017, mata uang Garuda berhasil meningkat 1%. Tahun lalu, rupiah tumbuh 2,28% menjadi Rp13.473 per dolar AS. Sebelumnya, Gundy Cahyadi, Vice President Economic & Curreny Research DBS Bank, menyampaikan secara keseluruhan mata uang global tertekan terhadap penguatan dolar AS pada tahun ayam api. Faktor utama yang memengaruhi ialah rencana pengerekan suku bunga Federal Reserve.
DBS memandang, instrumen Fed Fund Rate (FFR) bakal mengalami peningkatan sebanyak 4 kali secara bertahap pada 2017, cenderung lebih agresif dari proyeksi pasar sejumlah 2 kali. Adapun Bank Sentral AS sendiri merencanakan pengerekan FFR sebanyak 3 kali.
Bila dilakukan 4 kali, maka pengerekan FFR sebesar 25 basis poin masing-masing dilakukan dalam pertemuan The Fed (Federal Open Market Committee/ FOMC) di bulan Maret, Juni, September, dan Desember. Saat ini, posisi suku bunga AS ialah 0,5%-0,75%.
"Saat pertemuan di tiap akhir kuartal yang melakukan live conference, kami perkirakan di situlah kenaikan FFR dilakukan," ujarnya.
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| WASHINGTON
U.S. President Donald Trump showed a different side in his first address to Congress. This Trump was part deal-maker, part salesman, asking for unity and trying to repackage his populist message in more palatable terms.
He was less combative, less thin-skinned and more inclusive.
And where five weeks ago at his inauguration, he slammed Washington's politicians as out-of-touch elitists who prospered at the expense of the public, his message on Tuesday night was different: I need you, Republicans and Democrats alike.
Always a showman, the TV reality star-turned-politician laid out plenty of promises: A massive infrastructure and public works program; tax cuts for the middle class; immigration reform; a healthcare overhaul; an education bill.
All of it will require congressional action, likely by different coalitions of conservatives, moderates and Democrats.
“This is our vision. This is our mission,” Trump said. “But we can only get there together.”
Trump, a Republican who has taunted Democrats over his 2016 election victory and publicly fumed as they held up his Cabinet nominees, did not criticize them this time. Repeatedly, he asked for their help, arguing the country’s problems demanded bipartisan solutions.
After weeks of attacks on the media, political rivals and the judges who ruled against his executive order to ban travel from seven Muslim-majority countries, Trump finally eased off, although his proposals were short on specifics.
“It was a softer tone and he gave a speech and not a tweet and that's more suitable when you're president of the United States," said Democratic Representative Peter Welch. "The challenges are going to be the details on his policies.”
“He was presidential tonight in a way he has not been before this," said Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak.
The address appeared to show some recognition by the White House that Trump’s bombastic go-it-alone style has its limits. After a parade of executive orders, Trump now must turn his attention to the big-ticket items on his agenda requiring legislative action.
“He’s done all he can unilaterally,” said Bradley Blakeman, a former aide to President George W. Bush. “Now he needs to pass bills.”
Blakeman said Trump needs Democrats to build a majority that would allow conservative Republicans to oppose some of his more centrist proposals, such as hefty infrastructure spending and talks on immigration reform.
“The president is as transactional a person as we’ve ever seen,” Blakeman said. “He understands that you might not like this deal, but I need you for three other deals.”
SKEPTICAL
Despite the softer tone, Trump's divisive policies and months of hostile rhetoric will not be forgotten by his adversaries.
“If you have been living in a cave for the last month, you might think this was a reasonable speech, If you see him every day, you can only see this as words,” said Rodell Mollineau, once a top aide to former Democratic Senator Harry Reid. “If he had carried himself like this every day, Democrats might be in a different position.”
Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, the leading Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives, said in a statement: “The president’s speech was utterly disconnected from the cruel reality of his conduct.”
Congressional Democrats said they liked :
- Trump’s infrastructure program,
- his childcare tax credit,
- his call to reduce the prices of prescription drugs, and
- his vow to preserve some key elements of former President Barack Obama's signature 2010 Obamacare health insurance law.
Democratic Senator Christopher Coons offered muted praise for Trump. “That was the most coherent public address he's given in a month and it certainly began and ended with positive themes.”
Democrats nonetheless remain troubled, among other things, by Trump’s pledge to slash domestic programs to increase military spending, his plans to reduce taxes for the wealthy and corporations, as well as his aggressive deportation policy.
To be sure, the more foreboding elements of Trump’s campaign rhetoric were still present, albeit slightly dialed-down. As he did during the campaign, he portrayed the country in ruinous economic shape and plagued by terrorism, drugs, gangs, and illegal immigrants.
In coming days, the White House is likely to release a revised version of its travel ban, reigniting a controversy that overshadowed the first weeks of Trump’s presidency.
Trump came into the address struggling with public opinion. In an interview with Fox News he acknowledged that he and his staff had not been effective communicators. The most recent Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll found about 48 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump’s performance, with 46 percent backing him, poor numbers for a new president.
Mackowiak said Trump’s address could reverse his fortunes in a “crucial moment” for his presidency. “His public support will improve from this speech,” he said.
But John Geer, a public-opinion expert at Vanderbilt University, was not convinced. "He's going to have to do more than give a speech."
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New York detik - Bursa saham Wall Street di Amerika Serikat (AS) mencetak rekor baru, setelah Presiden Donald Trump berjanji segera mengeluarkan kebijakan pemangkasan pajak dalam waktu dekat.Pada perdagangan Kamis (9/2/2017), indeks Dow Jones Industrial naik 0,6% ke 20.172,40. indeks S&P 500 naik 0,6% ke 2.307,87. Kemudian indeks Nasdaq Composite naik 0,6% ke 5.715,18. Ketiga indeks ini mencetak rekor baru,
"Ada antusiasme yang muncul," kata Analis, Jack Ablin, dilansir dari AFP, Jumat (10/2/2017).
Pernyataan Trump ini memberikan semangat para pelaku ekonomi. Pemangkasan pajak dilakukan Trump untuk memperbaiki iklim investasi di AS. Kebijakan pemangkasan pajak akan keluar pada 2 atau 3 minggu ke depan.
Pajak yang akan dipangkas adalah pajak perusahaan, yang akan disubstitusi penurunannya dari kenaikan pajak barang impor.
Sejumlah ahli mengatakan, kebijakan Trump ini berpotensi menimbulkan aksi balasan dari partner dagang AS di Eropa dan negara lain, karena tingginya tarif pajak barang impor.
Bahkan karena kebijakan ini, AS juga berpotensi untuk digugat di Badan Perdagangan Dunia (World Trade Organization/WTO).
Meski begitu, pemerintah AS tetap akan menerapkan reformasi pajak ini. "Kita menghadapi persaingan yang ketat di luar karena aturan pajak saat ini. Trump hanya ingin agar iklim pajak menjadi insentif bagi perusahaan untuk datang ke negara ini , dan memunculkan lapangan kerja baru," kata Juru Bicara Gedung Putih, Sean Spicer. (wdl/wdl)
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Federal Appeals Refuses to Reinstate President Trump's Travel Ban
Updated: 6:52 AM SE | Originally published: 6:21 AM SE
(San Francisco)— A federal appeals court refused Thursday to reinstate President Donald Trump's ban on travelers from seven predominantly Muslim nations, dealing another legal setback to the new administration's immigration policy.
In a unanimous decision, the panel of three judges from the San Francisco-based 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals declined to block a lower-court ruling that suspended the ban and allowed previously barred travelers to enter the U.S. An appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court is possible.
seattle times: A federal judge in Seattle on Friday ordered a national halt to enforcement of President Trump’s controversial travel ban on citizens from seven predominantly Muslim nations. The White House vowed to appeal the decision immediately.
denver post: Trump’s action also baffles for its obvious ineffectiveness. Trump’s list of black-listed countries doesn’t include the known terrorist breeding grounds of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan — curiously, all countries in which Trump has business interests. In those banned (Syria, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen), he does not. A review by the Cato Institute finds that from 1975 through 2015, of all the foreign-born people who harmed Americans on U.S. soil, only 17 hailed from Trump’s chosen countries, and none of those attacks resulted in death.
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denver post: “Donald Trump talked a big game about Wall Street during his campaign — but as president, we’re finding out whose side he’s really on,” Warren said in a statement. “The Wall Street bankers and lobbyists whose greed and recklessness nearly destroyed this country may be toasting each other with champagne, but the American people have not forgotten the 2008 financial crisis — and they will not forget what happened today.”
The crisis touched off the worst recession since the 1930s Great Depression, wiping out $11 trillion in U.S. household wealth and leaving about 8 million Americans jobless. U.S. taxpayers funded multibillion-dollar bailouts of Wall Street mega-banks, smaller banks across the country and other financial firms.
Eight years on, the economy’s recovery has been halting, a situation that contributed to Trump’s election. Beyond being fed up with bailouts, consumers have an interest in the Financial Protection Bureau, which expanded regulators’ ability to police a wide array of financial products and services.
During his campaign, Trump pledged to repeal and replace the law, but he also railed against Wall Street excess and vowed to hold the industry accountable for the crisis. His rhetoric left questions about how closely he would align with the financial services industries’ years-long fight to undo regulations they view as burdensome.
Since winning the White House, Trump has cleared up some of those questions. He has filled his administration with millionaires and financiers and signed the orders after meeting with top CEOs and banking executives.
In his other action Friday, Trump’s presidential memorandum on financial advisers delayed implementation of the past administration’s “fiduciary rule,” aimed at blocking consultants from steering clients toward investments with higher commissions and fees that can eat away at retirement savings. The rule was to take effect in April.
The financial services industry argues that the rule would limit retirees’ investment choices by forcing asset managers to steer them to low-risk options.
Meanwhile, unwinding most of Dodd-Frank will require legislation, and on Capitol Hill the Republicans’ yearning to cut it down is as strong as ever. But tax reform, reworking “Obamacare” and other issues are more immediate priorities, some Republicans suggest. Further, the big Wall Street banks already have baked in many of the Dodd-Frank rules and aren’t clamoring to unwind all of them.
Aiming lower, in the pre-dawn hours of Friday, Congress passed and sent to Trump for his signature legislation striking down a rule that requires oil and gas companies to disclose payments to the U.S. or foreign governments for commercial development.
Critics warn that rolling back the Dodd-Frank regulations would put the economy at risk.
“You can blow up the financial system and really crush the American economy. I think that’s where they’re headed,” said Michael S. Barr, a former assistant treasury secretary for financial institutions and a key architect of the law.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is a prime target within the law for Republican lawmakers, who have long accused it of overreach. But there are political risks in Trump taking a hatchet to a watchdog agency focused on protecting ordinary consumers against abusive practices by banks, mortgage companies, credit card issuers, payday lenders, debt collectors and others.
Over five years, the agency says, it has recovered $11.7 billion that it returned to more than 27 million harmed consumers.
“You could expect pushback, that this is about favoring Wall Street over Main Street,” said Phillip Swagel, an assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy in the George W. Bush administration.
Going after the bureau, Barr said, would likely hurt consumers, “including some of President Trump’s strongest supporters.”
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NEW YORK. Analis yang kerap dikenal dengan sebutan Bapak Kiamat, Marc Faber, menilai kebijakan presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump akan membantu perekonomian Amerika. Namun, masalahnya, tidak akan ada cukup cadangan dana untuk jangka panjang.
"Trump sangat pro-bisnis, sehingga cukup wajar jika mood pelaku bisnis kecil menengah, korporasi, dan investor kian membaik," kata Faber kepada CNBC.
Meski Faber memprediksi pasar saham akan terus mendaki, dia mencatat bahwa hal ini tidak akan cukup baik bagi investor jika kondisinya mulai berbalik arah.
"Saya rasa ekonomi di masa Trump akan membaik, tapi itu bukan berarti harga aset-aset akan terus mendaki, karena harga mereka sudah terinflasi," jelasnya. Namun, jika dibandingkan dengan wawancara sebelumnya, retorika Faber masih lebih baik. Di wawancara sebelumnya, Faber meramal pasar saham AS akan kolaps dan kondisinya lebih buruk dibanding tahun 80-an.
"Jika seseorang mau berada di market, saya melihat pasar saham lain -selain Amerika- lebih menarik," kata Faber.
Dia mencatat, di 2017, Argentina, Brazil dan ETF emerging market sudah akan melampaui kinerja S&P 500. "Pasar saham asing akan melampaui kinerja pasar saham AS, dan jika keduanya mengalami penurunan, maka pasar saham AS akan turun lebih dalam," paparnya.
Menurutnya, investasi yang masih menarik di AS saat ini hanyalah saham-saham berbasis emas, perak, dan platinum. "Kita memiliki perusahaan tambang emas yang hebat di AS," jelasnya.
Sekadar informasi, harga emas sudah naik 3% di sepanjang tahun ini. Saham-saham tambang melonjak lebih dari 8% pada periode yang sama. "Saya rasa emas memiliki performa yang cukup fantastis," imbuhnya.
Di sisi lain, Faber juga memprediksi, perekonomian AS akan stagnan dan defisit anggaran akan kian membengkak. Kondisi ini akan mendorong Trump "memohon" kepada The Fed untuk meluncurkan quantitative easing 4 (QE4). "Hal ini nantinya akan menyebabkan dollar melemah dan harga emas akan meroket," paparnya.
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INILAHCOM, Washington - Kepemimpinan Presiden Donald John Trump, perekonomian Amerika Serikat (AS) diprediksi bakal lemah dan bisa ambruk. Semua karena Trumpnomics yang mengkhawatirkan seluruh dunia.
Analisa ini disampaikan mantan Anggota Kongres Texas serta mantan Calon Presiden, Ron Paul, seperti dilansir dari CNBC, Minggu (22/1/2017).
Hal yang paling krusial adalah, para kritikus Trump sangat memercayaai kebijakan ekonomi dari raja properti dan kasino ini, bakal menenggelamkan perekonomian AS. Ujung-ujungnya, bank sentral AS, the Fed harus turun tangan untuk membenahinya. "Dengan peningkatan anggaran besar-besaran di infrastruktur dan militer, saya pikir akan lebih banyak pengeluaran," kata Paul.
"Hutang negara dikhawatirkan bakal membesar. (Dan) Saya pikir, negara akan menekan Federal Reserve atau bank sentral untuk segera menaikkan suku bunga," terang Paul.
Paul juga mengatakan, kemungkinan saat ini, Amerika merasakan yang mudah. Namun, setelahnya bakal datang era-era sulit yang menjadi tantangan bagi pemerintahan Trump.
Meski sebagian besar pelaku bisnis di Wall Street optimis dengan prospek ekonomi jangka pendek, sejumlah ekonom tak sepakat dengan rancangan kebijakan Trump di sektor fiskal.
Kritikan Paul yang disampaikan David Stockman, mantan kepala anggaran era Presiden Reagan, menyebut kebijakan Trump pada akhirnya akan memicu bencana keuangan.
Sekedar informasi saja, sejak awal, Paul sudah menolak untuk mendukung Trump. Di mana, Trump berhasil membelah Partai Republik.
Paul bilang, Trump berpotensi melakukan kebohongan soal pajak perbatasan. Di mana, pajak perbatan tinggi seperti usulan Trump bakal mematikan perdagangan bebas.
Dan, terbukti sinyalemen Paul benar-benar terjadi. Saat pidato kenegaraan Presiden Trump pada Jumat (20/1/2017), volume perdagangan melorot drastis. [ipe]
- See more at: http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2354814/era-trump-ekonomi-amerika-diprediksi-ambruk#sthash.XvA9z88S.dpuf
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INILAHCOM, New York - Miliarder kawakan, George Soros memprediksi reli pasar saham setelah kemenangan Donald Trump dalam pilpres AS akan memudar dengan mulainya Trump berkantor di Gedung Putih.
Menurut Soros investor segera menghadapi ketidakpastian baru dengan kebijakan yang dilakukan pemerintahan baru tersebut. "Sekarang adalah puncak ketidakpastian. Dan sebenarnya ketidakpastian adalah musuh dari investasi jangka panjang. Jadi saya tidak berpikir pasar akan melakukannya dengan sangat baik," kata Soros seperti mengutip marketwatch.com.
Pernyataan tersebut diungkapkan Soros dalam pertemuan tahunan ekonomi dunia di Davos Swiss, Kamis (19/1/2017) kemarin. Ini bukan pertama kalinya investor miliarder sekelas Soros berseberanan dengan Trump. Soros bahkan telah mengatakan presiden dari Partai Republik tersebut sebagai calon diktator.
Sikap Soros tersebut diduga karena dia telah mengalami kerugian sejak November lalu. The Wall Street Journal mengungkapkan secara pribadi Soros telah kehilangan dana hampir US$1 miliar saat reli tajam bursa saham setelah kemenangan Trump pada pilpres 8 November lalu.
- See more at: http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2354360/inilah-kata-soros-soal-trump-jadi-presiden-as#sthash.kTjttg9w.dpuf
Kerugian tersebut untuk portofolio yang dikelola perusahaannya, Soros Fund Management. Perusahaan ini disebut-sebut mengelola sekitar US$30 miliar milik keluarga Soros.
Namun saat ini, reli panjang sejak November tersebut telah berhanti. Indeks S&P 500 tercatat turun 0,3 persen. Indeks ini telah reli panjang sekitar 6 persen sejak 8 November lalu. Reli ini seperti halya yang terjadi saat Bill Clinton terpilih lagi pada tahun 1996.
Soros menilai, kenaikan panjang sejak 8 November tersebut seiring munculnya ekspektasi terhadap Trump tentang rencana deregulasi terhadap aturan yang ada dan pemangkasan pajak. Tetapi ke depan pasar akan menghadapi ketidakpasstian ke depan. Setbab Trump harus beadu argumentasi dengan Kongres. "Anda akan melihat berbagai instansi akan berseberangan satu sama lain, yang menghadang terhadap hasil yang tidak terduga," jelasnya.
- See more at: http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2354360/inilah-kata-soros-soal-trump-jadi-presiden-as#sthash.kTjttg9w.dpuf
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Dunia telah memasuki era baru yang penuh ketidakpastian, setelah dilantiknya Presiden Donald J. Trump pada 20 Januari 2017. Semua sesi di World Economic Forum (WEF) di Davos pun tidak lepas dengan prediksi bahwa peran Amerika Serikat (AS) dalam orde internasional baru akan sangat berbeda.
Di WEF, podium internasional yang bergengsi, sejumlah kepala negara seperti Presiden China Xi Jin Ping dan PM Inggris Theresa May juga menyuarakan pentingnya manfaat globalisasi, walaupun kita juga harus memperhatikan unsur pemerataan—pesan yang ditujukan ke Donald Trump.
Kelompok optimistis melihat bahwa dalam jangka pendek pertumbuhan ekonomi AS akan terus membaik karena langkah-langkah stimulus yang akan dilakukan oleh Trump.
Kelompok optimistis juga beranggapan bahwa kandidat Trump akan berbeda dengan Presiden Trump, dan beliau akan menjadi presiden yang “normal” dan “pragmatis” setelah menyadari bahwa Negara Amerika bukan Corporate America.
Ada kebenaran dari kelompok optimistis bahwa keadaan ekonomi di jangka pendek akan terus membaik. Hal tersebut terutama karena Presiden Trump beruntung mewarisi keadaan ekonomi AS yang telah pulih dan membaik.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal III/2016 mencapai 3,5% dan selama beberapa tahun terakhir terjadi peningkatan penyerapan tenaga kerja sehingga pengangguran menyentuh tingkat yang terendah, yaitu 4,7%. Gambaran ini memang bukan pembantaian (carnage) perekonomian yang disebut di pidato pelantikan Presiden Trump.
Memang kelompok masyarakat yang menjadi target dari kampanye dan pidato pelantikan adalah kelompok kelas menengah bawah yang gajinya tidak meningkat selama 20 tahun dan yang kehilangan pekerjaan di pabrik-pabrik baja dan otomotif.
Yang menjadi pertanyaan, apakah target pertumbuhan 3,5% yang dicanangkan dapat dipertahankan dalam jangka menengah dengan rangkaian kebijakan yang dilakukan?
Isu pertama adalah program stimulus fiskal, reformasi pajak, dan deregulasi yang telah diumumkan. Stimulus fiskal yang akan dibelanjakan untuk pembangunan infrastruktur dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan dan penyerapan tenaga kerja.
Namun, diperkirakan pendanaan stimulus fiskal dari pinjaman pemerintah tersebut akan berdampak ke inflasi dan suku bunga. Kecenderungan kenaikan suku bunga juga akan terjadi.
Kenaikan suku bunga serta penurunan pajak akan meyebabkan arus modal kembali ke AS dan dolar menguat. Ini akan memengaruhi ekspor dan pertumbuhan AS. Hal tersebut harus diimbangi dengan kebijakan fiskal dan moneter.
Indonesia harus mewaspadai volatilitas arus modal dan penguatan dolar. Pada saat kemenangan Donald Trump di November, sempat ada arus modal yang keluar senilai Rp32 triliun.
Dengan keadaan demikian, ruang gerak kebijak an moneter terbatas, dan di tambah dengan perkem bangan ekspor yang masih lesu. Stimulus pertumbuhan harus diandalkan dari stimulus fiskal dan investasi swasta.
Isu kedua dan yang lebih mengkhawatirkan adalah sikap nasionalisme dan proteksionisme, America First atau mengutamakan kepentingan AS. Untuk sementara, kelompok optimistis perlu menyimak, belum ada perbedaan antara kandidat Trump dan Presiden Trump, di mana beliau serius (dan konsisten) mengenai Corporate America yang punya bendera America First.
Dengan posisi yang bertolak belakang dari pendahulunya, Presiden Trump menegaskan bahwa kebijak an luar negeri AS tetap berba sis persahabatan, tetapi mengedepankan hak setiap negara untuk memprioritaskan kepentingan nasional.
Kebijakan luar negeri AS selama ini dianggap tidak menguntungkan AS dan justru yang terjadi pembuatan produk Amerika di pabrikpabrik di luar menyebabkan hilangnya pekerjaan untuk warga Amerika.
Dua rumus digencarkan Trump untuk memperkuat AS: Buy American and Hire American– gunakan produk Amerika dan pekerjakan tenaga kerja Amerika.
Sesungguhnya, kenyataan di lapangan jauh berbeda dengan yang disampaikan Presiden Trump. Hanya 20% dari berkurangnya pekerjaan disebabkan oleh persaingan karena perdagangan internasional. Sementara itu, 80% dari hilangnya pekerjaan lebih disebabkan oleh teknologi dan pro duk tivitas yang stagnan.
Dengan demikian, proteksi tidak akan serta-merta menciptakan lapangan pekerjaan di AS, tanpa menjawab isu utama terkait dengan produktivitas. Terlepas dari kenyataan dan fakta, kecenderungan proteksionisme diperkirakan akan meningkat di AS dan kecenderungan tersebut mempunyai beberapa implikasi penting bagi Indonesia dan perekonomian dunia.
Pertama, ancaman peningkatan proteksionisme meme ngaruhi akses pasar dan investasi. Target utama saat ini adalah China dan Meksiko, di mana kandidat Trump sudah mengancam akan mengenakan bea masuk 45% dan 36%. Ekspor China yang akan disorot adalah produk yang berkontribusi kepada defisit perdagangan AS de ngan China.
Penyumbang terbesar defisit adalah alat telekomunikasi. Selain China, negara-negara lain yang masuk dalam rantai nilai tambah pembuatan komponen dan bahan baku terkait, seperti Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, dan Singapura, juga akan disorot.
Dengan Indonesia, nilai perdagangan AS selama beberapa tahun ini stagnan di sekitar US$19 miliar dan menurun pada 2016. Indonesia merupakan mitra dagang peringkat ke-20 di dunia dan ke-4 di antara negara Asean (di bawah Vietnam, Thailand, dan Malaysia).
Produk utama adalah pakai an jadi, produk dari karet (terutama ban mobil), mesin listrik, alas kaki, produk perikanan, mebel, dan kelapa sawit. Nilai impor produk Indonesia masih kecil dan bukan yang dianggap berkontribusi besar terhadap defisit perdagangan AS. Kendati demikian, Indonesia dan perusahaan Indonesia akan menghadapi peningkatan tindakan proteksionisme.
WASPADAI HAMBATAN
Tentu langkah unilateral tersebut dapat mengundang retaliasi dan perang dagang dari mitranya, sehingga kemungkinan besar yang akan dilakukan adalah menggunakan instrumen pengamanan perdagangan, seperti melakukan investigasi adanya dumping atau subsidi, dan mengenakan bea masuk tambahan.
Indonesia dan perusahaan Indonesia perlu mewaspadai peningkatan hambatan perdagangan dan bisnis yang diperkirakan akan terjadi. Kedua, Presiden Trump akan menggunakan pendekatan bilateral daripada multilateral atau regional.
Hal ini berarti tidak akan banyak kemajuan dalam negosiasi multilateral di WTO. PR utama pemerintah dan perusahaan Indonesia adalah persiapan peningkatan kapasitas memahami, menggunakan, dan dapat melakukan negosiasi berdasarkan peraturan perdagangan internasional yang ada, dan tentu melakukan pendekatan kepada pihak-pihak penentu di AS di bawah Presiden Trump.
Tidak akan terimplementasinya TPP di satu sisi juga akan mengurangi kekhawatir an Indonesia akan kalah bersaing de ngan Vietnam dan Malaysia yang merupakan anggota TPP.
Di sisi lain, diperkirakan Pemerintah AS akan mengubah pendekatan negosiasi menjadi bilateral dengan basis apa yang sudah termasuk dalam TPP. Diperkirakan dua negara yang akan menjadi perhatian AS dalam kerja sama bilateral adalah Jepang dan Vietnam.
Sementara itu, dalam keadaan ketidakpastian global, kawasan Asia tetap mengalami pertumbuhan yang paling tinggi di dunia 6,3%, dengan India, Cambodia, Laos dan Myanmar bertumbuh 7%—8%; China, Vietnam, dan Filipina bertumbuh 6%—7%; dan Indonesia dan Malaysia bertumbuh 4%—5%.
Kerja sama dan integrasi ekonomi melalui Asean dan RCEP juga masih berjalan dan proses integrasi ekonomi akan terus berjalan secara bertahap di kawasan Asia.
Hal ini yang sesungguhnya menjadi sumber optimisme riil sehingga perlu menjadi prioritas strategi Indonesia. Kita beruntung berada dalam kawasan yang masih dan akan terus mengalami pertumbuhan ke depan. Akhir kata, Indonesia akan menghadapi banyak ketidakpastian eksternal ke depan.
Optimisme ada. Namun, PR utama yang harus kita tuntaskan di dalam negeri adalah reformasi struktural dan investasi SDM. Untuk saat ini, kita juga perlu mengutamakan Asia, tetapi tidak dengan cara menutup diri seperti America First. Yang justru ha rus dilakukan adalah menggunakan proses integrasi ekonomi di Asia sebagai platform untuk memperluas pasar, dan sebagai sumber pertumbuhan sembari menjalankan program reformasi dalam negeri.
*) Mari Pangestu, Guru Besar Ekonomi Internasional Universitas Indonesia
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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Beberapa waktu lalu, bisnis global Donald Trump disorot publik Amerika Serikat dan dunia karena dinilai berpotensi menimbulkan konflik kepentingan setelah Trump resmi terpilih menjadi Presiden Amerika.
Saat kampanye pada pertengahan Desember 2016, melalui akun Twitter-nya, pengusaha real estat itu berjanji tidak akan membuat perjanjian bisnis baru. Trump juga telah menutup yayasan keluarga dan membatalkan beberapa proposal proyek, seperti Trump Office Buenos Aires di Argentina dan Trump Riverwalk di India.
Daftar bisnis global Trump dikompilasi dalam laporan Trump Financial Disclosure yang disampaikan kepada Komisi Pemilihan Umum Federal (Federal Election Commission) pada Juli 2015 dan Mei 2016.
Dokumen setebal 104 halaman yang dikutip oleh media-media dunia, seperti The New York Times, VOA, Washington Post, dan Wall Street Journal, tersebut mencantumkan daftar perusahaan milik Trump di penjuru dunia. Unit usaha Trump tersebar mulai di Panama, Irlandia, Skotlandia, Azerbaijan, hingga Indonesia.
Baca: Gandeng Trump Hotel, Berapa Royalti yang Dibayarkan MNC?
Dalam data tersebut, terungkap ada empat perusahaan yang memiliki keterangan atau deskripsi cukup jelas mempunyai transaksi dengan unit usaha PT MNC Land Tbk (KPIG), yakni PT Lido Nirwana Parahyangan dan PT Bali Nirwana Resort. MNC Land merupakan unit usaha MNC Group milik konglomerat Hary Tanoesoedibjo.
MNC Land sedang menggandeng Trump Hotel Collection dalam mengembangkan kawasan resor terintegrasi dengan taman hiburan di Lido, Jawa Barat, dan kawasan nirwana resor di Tanah Lot, Bali. Megaproyek yang diberi nama MNC Lido City dan Bali Nirwana Resort tersebut direncanakan membutuhkan total nilai investasi sekitar Rp 20 triliun.
Baca: Dampak Trump, Ekonom: Waspadai Pelarian Dana ke Luar Negeri
Empat perusahaan yang ada dalam daftar perusahaan milik Trump tersebut adalah:
1. DT Marks Lido LLC
Deskripsi: memiliki perjanjian lisensi dengan PT Lido Nirwana Parahyangan, Indonesia
Lokasi: New York
Status perusahaan: LLC
Jenis pendapatan: royalti
Jumlah pendapatan: US$ 1-5 juta (Rp 13,4-67 miliar)
2. DT Lido Technical Services Manager LLC
Deskripsi: memiliki perjanjian manajemen dengan PT Lido Nirwana Parahyangan, Indonesia.
Lokasi: New York
Status perusahaan: LLC
Jenis pendapatan: management fee
Jumlah pendapatan : US$ 83.333 (Rp 1,11 miliar)
3. DT Marks Bali LLC
Deskripsi: memiliki perjanjian lisensi dengan PT Bali Nirwana Resort
Lokasi: New York
Status perusahaan: LLC
Jenis pendapatan: royalti
Jumlah pendapatan: US$ 1-5 juta (Rp 13,4-67 miliar)
4. DT Bali Technical Services Manager LLC
Deskripsi: memiliki perjanjian manajemen dengan PT Bali Nirwana Resort
Lokasi: New York
Status perusahaan: LLC
Jenis pendapatan: management fee
Jumlah pendapatan: US$ 83.333 (Rp 1,11 miliar)
Baca : Rupiah Diproyeksi Menguat Setelah Pelantikan Donald Trump
Selain empat perusahaan tersebut, masih ada belasan perusahaan lain yang namanya terasosiasi dengan Indonesia, tapi penjelasannya tidak rinci. Semua perusahaan tersebut terdaftar di New York, yang sebagian berstatus LLC atau limited liability company dan sebagian lain berstatus corporation (corp) atau korporasi.
LLC merupakan bentuk spesifik perusahaan swasta Amerika yang struktur bisnisnya menggabungkan status pajak pass-through dari kemitraan atau kepemilikan tunggal dengan kewajiban korporasi yang terbatas. Adapun corporation adalah badan hukum yang mempunyai banyak perusahaan di bawahnya yang memiliki hak dan kewajiban yang berbeda dengan perusahaan di bawahnya. Belasan perusahaan tersebut adalah:
5. DT Bali Golf Manager LLC
6. DT Bali Golf Manager Member Corp
7. DT Bali Hotel Manager LLC
8. DT Bali Hotel Manager Member Corp
9. DT Bali Techincal Services Manager Member Corp
10. DT Lido Golf Manger LLC
11. DT Lido Golf Manager Member Corp
12. DT Lido Hotel Manager LLC
13. DT Lido Hotel Manager Member Corp
14. DT Lido Technical Services Manager Member Corp
15. DT Marks Bali Member Corp
16. DT Marks Lido Member Corp
ABDUL MALIK
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Liputan6.com, Jakarta Bursa saham Amerika Serikat (AS) atau wall street menguat seiring data ekonomi AS yang positif. Saat ini pelaku pasar menanti pelantikan presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump pada 20 Januari 2017.
Dalam laporan DBS Indonesia menyebutkan, seperti ditulis Senin (16/1/2017) menjelang pelantikan Donald Trump, investor terus berharap pada kemungkinan stimulus yang besar selama masa jabatan presiden AS Donald Trump.
Adanya keyakinan terhadap stimulus fiskal yang kuat akan terus mendorong pasar saham AS. Ditambah data ekonomi AS antara lain data manufaktur dan upah AS yang kuat jadi dorongan sentimen.
Sebelumnya pemulihan ekonomi AS mendapatkan momentum karena pertumbuhan aktivitas manufaktur dan tingkat upah kalahkan ekspektasi.
BACA JUGA
Rata-rata penghasilan per jam naik 0,4 persen MoM pada Desember, lebih tinggi dari harapan pasar kenaikan 0,3 persen MoM. Indeks manufaktur ISM naik 54,7 pada Desember, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan konsensus 53,8.
Di sisi lain, kenaikan inflasi di Amerika Serikat (AS) dapat memicu respons hawkish dari bank sentral AS atau the Federal Reserve dan pengetatan moneter yang agresif. Sejumlah sentimen itu mempengaruhi wall street.
Dari internal, ada sejumlah rilis data ekonomi yang telah dikeluarkan antara lain realisasi defisit Indonesia tercatat 2,46 persen dari produk domestik bruto (PDB), lebih besar dari target awal 2,35 persen. Inflasi tercatat 3,02 persen sepanjang 2016. Selain itu, cadangan devisa Indonesia pada Desember 2016 mencapai US$ 116,4 miliar. Sedangkan indeks manufaktur Indonesia turun menjadi 49 pada Desember 2016 dari periode November sekitar 49,7.
Pada pekan ini, data ekonomi yang keluar antara lain neraca perdagangan Indonesia, produk domestik China (PDB) China, produksi industri China.
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bloomberg: Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers attacked the policy proposals of Donald Trump on several fronts, saying the president-elect’s plans for deregulation were setting the stage for the next financial crisis.
“The deregulation in some areas like finance is hugely dangerous,” Summers said Sunday in an interview on Fox News Channel. “Who wants to go back to the era of predatory lending? Who wants to go back to the era of vastly over-levered banks?”
Members of Trump’s transition team have vowed to dismantle the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, the principal legislative response to the 2008-09 global financial crisis, although Trump himself has given mixed signals on Wall Street regulation. During his campaign, he railed against Dodd-Frank, which greatly increased restrictions on banks operating in the U.S., but also said he would reinstate a separation between bank lending and securities underwriting, which was removed in 1999.
Summers, former chief economic adviser to President Barack Obama and Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, also took aim at Trump’s protectionist rhetoric. That’s already caused a plunge in the Mexican peso, giving Mexican manufacturing an extra advantage over U.S. competitors.
NEW YORK. Analis yang kerap dikenal dengan sebutan Bapak Kiamat, Marc Faber, menilai kebijakan presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump akan membantu perekonomian Amerika. Namun, masalahnya, tidak akan ada cukup cadangan dana untuk jangka panjang.
"Trump sangat pro-bisnis, sehingga cukup wajar jika mood pelaku bisnis kecil menengah, korporasi, dan investor kian membaik," kata Faber kepada CNBC.
Meski Faber memprediksi pasar saham akan terus mendaki, dia mencatat bahwa hal ini tidak akan cukup baik bagi investor jika kondisinya mulai berbalik arah.
"Saya rasa ekonomi di masa Trump akan membaik, tapi itu bukan berarti harga aset-aset akan terus mendaki, karena harga mereka sudah terinflasi," jelasnya. Namun, jika dibandingkan dengan wawancara sebelumnya, retorika Faber masih lebih baik. Di wawancara sebelumnya, Faber meramal pasar saham AS akan kolaps dan kondisinya lebih buruk dibanding tahun 80-an.
"Jika seseorang mau berada di market, saya melihat pasar saham lain -selain Amerika- lebih menarik," kata Faber.
Dia mencatat, di 2017, Argentina, Brazil dan ETF emerging market sudah akan melampaui kinerja S&P 500. "Pasar saham asing akan melampaui kinerja pasar saham AS, dan jika keduanya mengalami penurunan, maka pasar saham AS akan turun lebih dalam," paparnya.
Menurutnya, investasi yang masih menarik di AS saat ini hanyalah saham-saham berbasis emas, perak, dan platinum. "Kita memiliki perusahaan tambang emas yang hebat di AS," jelasnya.
Sekadar informasi, harga emas sudah naik 3% di sepanjang tahun ini. Saham-saham tambang melonjak lebih dari 8% pada periode yang sama. "Saya rasa emas memiliki performa yang cukup fantastis," imbuhnya.
Di sisi lain, Faber juga memprediksi, perekonomian AS akan stagnan dan defisit anggaran akan kian membengkak. Kondisi ini akan mendorong Trump "memohon" kepada The Fed untuk meluncurkan quantitative easing 4 (QE4). "Hal ini nantinya akan menyebabkan dollar melemah dan harga emas akan meroket," paparnya.
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INILAHCOM, Washington - Kepemimpinan Presiden Donald John Trump, perekonomian Amerika Serikat (AS) diprediksi bakal lemah dan bisa ambruk. Semua karena Trumpnomics yang mengkhawatirkan seluruh dunia.
Analisa ini disampaikan mantan Anggota Kongres Texas serta mantan Calon Presiden, Ron Paul, seperti dilansir dari CNBC, Minggu (22/1/2017).
Hal yang paling krusial adalah, para kritikus Trump sangat memercayaai kebijakan ekonomi dari raja properti dan kasino ini, bakal menenggelamkan perekonomian AS. Ujung-ujungnya, bank sentral AS, the Fed harus turun tangan untuk membenahinya. "Dengan peningkatan anggaran besar-besaran di infrastruktur dan militer, saya pikir akan lebih banyak pengeluaran," kata Paul.
"Hutang negara dikhawatirkan bakal membesar. (Dan) Saya pikir, negara akan menekan Federal Reserve atau bank sentral untuk segera menaikkan suku bunga," terang Paul.
Paul juga mengatakan, kemungkinan saat ini, Amerika merasakan yang mudah. Namun, setelahnya bakal datang era-era sulit yang menjadi tantangan bagi pemerintahan Trump.
Meski sebagian besar pelaku bisnis di Wall Street optimis dengan prospek ekonomi jangka pendek, sejumlah ekonom tak sepakat dengan rancangan kebijakan Trump di sektor fiskal.
Kritikan Paul yang disampaikan David Stockman, mantan kepala anggaran era Presiden Reagan, menyebut kebijakan Trump pada akhirnya akan memicu bencana keuangan.
Sekedar informasi saja, sejak awal, Paul sudah menolak untuk mendukung Trump. Di mana, Trump berhasil membelah Partai Republik.
Paul bilang, Trump berpotensi melakukan kebohongan soal pajak perbatasan. Di mana, pajak perbatan tinggi seperti usulan Trump bakal mematikan perdagangan bebas.
Dan, terbukti sinyalemen Paul benar-benar terjadi. Saat pidato kenegaraan Presiden Trump pada Jumat (20/1/2017), volume perdagangan melorot drastis. [ipe]
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INILAHCOM, New York - Miliarder kawakan, George Soros memprediksi reli pasar saham setelah kemenangan Donald Trump dalam pilpres AS akan memudar dengan mulainya Trump berkantor di Gedung Putih.
Menurut Soros investor segera menghadapi ketidakpastian baru dengan kebijakan yang dilakukan pemerintahan baru tersebut. "Sekarang adalah puncak ketidakpastian. Dan sebenarnya ketidakpastian adalah musuh dari investasi jangka panjang. Jadi saya tidak berpikir pasar akan melakukannya dengan sangat baik," kata Soros seperti mengutip marketwatch.com.
Pernyataan tersebut diungkapkan Soros dalam pertemuan tahunan ekonomi dunia di Davos Swiss, Kamis (19/1/2017) kemarin. Ini bukan pertama kalinya investor miliarder sekelas Soros berseberanan dengan Trump. Soros bahkan telah mengatakan presiden dari Partai Republik tersebut sebagai calon diktator.
Sikap Soros tersebut diduga karena dia telah mengalami kerugian sejak November lalu. The Wall Street Journal mengungkapkan secara pribadi Soros telah kehilangan dana hampir US$1 miliar saat reli tajam bursa saham setelah kemenangan Trump pada pilpres 8 November lalu.
- See more at: http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2354360/inilah-kata-soros-soal-trump-jadi-presiden-as#sthash.kTjttg9w.dpuf
Kerugian tersebut untuk portofolio yang dikelola perusahaannya, Soros Fund Management. Perusahaan ini disebut-sebut mengelola sekitar US$30 miliar milik keluarga Soros.
Namun saat ini, reli panjang sejak November tersebut telah berhanti. Indeks S&P 500 tercatat turun 0,3 persen. Indeks ini telah reli panjang sekitar 6 persen sejak 8 November lalu. Reli ini seperti halya yang terjadi saat Bill Clinton terpilih lagi pada tahun 1996.
Soros menilai, kenaikan panjang sejak 8 November tersebut seiring munculnya ekspektasi terhadap Trump tentang rencana deregulasi terhadap aturan yang ada dan pemangkasan pajak. Tetapi ke depan pasar akan menghadapi ketidakpasstian ke depan. Setbab Trump harus beadu argumentasi dengan Kongres. "Anda akan melihat berbagai instansi akan berseberangan satu sama lain, yang menghadang terhadap hasil yang tidak terduga," jelasnya.
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Dunia telah memasuki era baru yang penuh ketidakpastian, setelah dilantiknya Presiden Donald J. Trump pada 20 Januari 2017. Semua sesi di World Economic Forum (WEF) di Davos pun tidak lepas dengan prediksi bahwa peran Amerika Serikat (AS) dalam orde internasional baru akan sangat berbeda.
Di WEF, podium internasional yang bergengsi, sejumlah kepala negara seperti Presiden China Xi Jin Ping dan PM Inggris Theresa May juga menyuarakan pentingnya manfaat globalisasi, walaupun kita juga harus memperhatikan unsur pemerataan—pesan yang ditujukan ke Donald Trump.
Kelompok optimistis melihat bahwa dalam jangka pendek pertumbuhan ekonomi AS akan terus membaik karena langkah-langkah stimulus yang akan dilakukan oleh Trump.
Kelompok optimistis juga beranggapan bahwa kandidat Trump akan berbeda dengan Presiden Trump, dan beliau akan menjadi presiden yang “normal” dan “pragmatis” setelah menyadari bahwa Negara Amerika bukan Corporate America.
Ada kebenaran dari kelompok optimistis bahwa keadaan ekonomi di jangka pendek akan terus membaik. Hal tersebut terutama karena Presiden Trump beruntung mewarisi keadaan ekonomi AS yang telah pulih dan membaik.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal III/2016 mencapai 3,5% dan selama beberapa tahun terakhir terjadi peningkatan penyerapan tenaga kerja sehingga pengangguran menyentuh tingkat yang terendah, yaitu 4,7%. Gambaran ini memang bukan pembantaian (carnage) perekonomian yang disebut di pidato pelantikan Presiden Trump.
Memang kelompok masyarakat yang menjadi target dari kampanye dan pidato pelantikan adalah kelompok kelas menengah bawah yang gajinya tidak meningkat selama 20 tahun dan yang kehilangan pekerjaan di pabrik-pabrik baja dan otomotif.
Yang menjadi pertanyaan, apakah target pertumbuhan 3,5% yang dicanangkan dapat dipertahankan dalam jangka menengah dengan rangkaian kebijakan yang dilakukan?
Isu pertama adalah program stimulus fiskal, reformasi pajak, dan deregulasi yang telah diumumkan. Stimulus fiskal yang akan dibelanjakan untuk pembangunan infrastruktur dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan dan penyerapan tenaga kerja.
Namun, diperkirakan pendanaan stimulus fiskal dari pinjaman pemerintah tersebut akan berdampak ke inflasi dan suku bunga. Kecenderungan kenaikan suku bunga juga akan terjadi.
Kenaikan suku bunga serta penurunan pajak akan meyebabkan arus modal kembali ke AS dan dolar menguat. Ini akan memengaruhi ekspor dan pertumbuhan AS. Hal tersebut harus diimbangi dengan kebijakan fiskal dan moneter.
Indonesia harus mewaspadai volatilitas arus modal dan penguatan dolar. Pada saat kemenangan Donald Trump di November, sempat ada arus modal yang keluar senilai Rp32 triliun.
Dengan keadaan demikian, ruang gerak kebijak an moneter terbatas, dan di tambah dengan perkem bangan ekspor yang masih lesu. Stimulus pertumbuhan harus diandalkan dari stimulus fiskal dan investasi swasta.
Isu kedua dan yang lebih mengkhawatirkan adalah sikap nasionalisme dan proteksionisme, America First atau mengutamakan kepentingan AS. Untuk sementara, kelompok optimistis perlu menyimak, belum ada perbedaan antara kandidat Trump dan Presiden Trump, di mana beliau serius (dan konsisten) mengenai Corporate America yang punya bendera America First.
Dengan posisi yang bertolak belakang dari pendahulunya, Presiden Trump menegaskan bahwa kebijak an luar negeri AS tetap berba sis persahabatan, tetapi mengedepankan hak setiap negara untuk memprioritaskan kepentingan nasional.
Kebijakan luar negeri AS selama ini dianggap tidak menguntungkan AS dan justru yang terjadi pembuatan produk Amerika di pabrikpabrik di luar menyebabkan hilangnya pekerjaan untuk warga Amerika.
Dua rumus digencarkan Trump untuk memperkuat AS: Buy American and Hire American– gunakan produk Amerika dan pekerjakan tenaga kerja Amerika.
Sesungguhnya, kenyataan di lapangan jauh berbeda dengan yang disampaikan Presiden Trump. Hanya 20% dari berkurangnya pekerjaan disebabkan oleh persaingan karena perdagangan internasional. Sementara itu, 80% dari hilangnya pekerjaan lebih disebabkan oleh teknologi dan pro duk tivitas yang stagnan.
Dengan demikian, proteksi tidak akan serta-merta menciptakan lapangan pekerjaan di AS, tanpa menjawab isu utama terkait dengan produktivitas. Terlepas dari kenyataan dan fakta, kecenderungan proteksionisme diperkirakan akan meningkat di AS dan kecenderungan tersebut mempunyai beberapa implikasi penting bagi Indonesia dan perekonomian dunia.
Pertama, ancaman peningkatan proteksionisme meme ngaruhi akses pasar dan investasi. Target utama saat ini adalah China dan Meksiko, di mana kandidat Trump sudah mengancam akan mengenakan bea masuk 45% dan 36%. Ekspor China yang akan disorot adalah produk yang berkontribusi kepada defisit perdagangan AS de ngan China.
Penyumbang terbesar defisit adalah alat telekomunikasi. Selain China, negara-negara lain yang masuk dalam rantai nilai tambah pembuatan komponen dan bahan baku terkait, seperti Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, dan Singapura, juga akan disorot.
Dengan Indonesia, nilai perdagangan AS selama beberapa tahun ini stagnan di sekitar US$19 miliar dan menurun pada 2016. Indonesia merupakan mitra dagang peringkat ke-20 di dunia dan ke-4 di antara negara Asean (di bawah Vietnam, Thailand, dan Malaysia).
Produk utama adalah pakai an jadi, produk dari karet (terutama ban mobil), mesin listrik, alas kaki, produk perikanan, mebel, dan kelapa sawit. Nilai impor produk Indonesia masih kecil dan bukan yang dianggap berkontribusi besar terhadap defisit perdagangan AS. Kendati demikian, Indonesia dan perusahaan Indonesia akan menghadapi peningkatan tindakan proteksionisme.
WASPADAI HAMBATAN
Tentu langkah unilateral tersebut dapat mengundang retaliasi dan perang dagang dari mitranya, sehingga kemungkinan besar yang akan dilakukan adalah menggunakan instrumen pengamanan perdagangan, seperti melakukan investigasi adanya dumping atau subsidi, dan mengenakan bea masuk tambahan.
Indonesia dan perusahaan Indonesia perlu mewaspadai peningkatan hambatan perdagangan dan bisnis yang diperkirakan akan terjadi. Kedua, Presiden Trump akan menggunakan pendekatan bilateral daripada multilateral atau regional.
Hal ini berarti tidak akan banyak kemajuan dalam negosiasi multilateral di WTO. PR utama pemerintah dan perusahaan Indonesia adalah persiapan peningkatan kapasitas memahami, menggunakan, dan dapat melakukan negosiasi berdasarkan peraturan perdagangan internasional yang ada, dan tentu melakukan pendekatan kepada pihak-pihak penentu di AS di bawah Presiden Trump.
Tidak akan terimplementasinya TPP di satu sisi juga akan mengurangi kekhawatir an Indonesia akan kalah bersaing de ngan Vietnam dan Malaysia yang merupakan anggota TPP.
Di sisi lain, diperkirakan Pemerintah AS akan mengubah pendekatan negosiasi menjadi bilateral dengan basis apa yang sudah termasuk dalam TPP. Diperkirakan dua negara yang akan menjadi perhatian AS dalam kerja sama bilateral adalah Jepang dan Vietnam.
Sementara itu, dalam keadaan ketidakpastian global, kawasan Asia tetap mengalami pertumbuhan yang paling tinggi di dunia 6,3%, dengan India, Cambodia, Laos dan Myanmar bertumbuh 7%—8%; China, Vietnam, dan Filipina bertumbuh 6%—7%; dan Indonesia dan Malaysia bertumbuh 4%—5%.
Kerja sama dan integrasi ekonomi melalui Asean dan RCEP juga masih berjalan dan proses integrasi ekonomi akan terus berjalan secara bertahap di kawasan Asia.
Hal ini yang sesungguhnya menjadi sumber optimisme riil sehingga perlu menjadi prioritas strategi Indonesia. Kita beruntung berada dalam kawasan yang masih dan akan terus mengalami pertumbuhan ke depan. Akhir kata, Indonesia akan menghadapi banyak ketidakpastian eksternal ke depan.
Optimisme ada. Namun, PR utama yang harus kita tuntaskan di dalam negeri adalah reformasi struktural dan investasi SDM. Untuk saat ini, kita juga perlu mengutamakan Asia, tetapi tidak dengan cara menutup diri seperti America First. Yang justru ha rus dilakukan adalah menggunakan proses integrasi ekonomi di Asia sebagai platform untuk memperluas pasar, dan sebagai sumber pertumbuhan sembari menjalankan program reformasi dalam negeri.
*) Mari Pangestu, Guru Besar Ekonomi Internasional Universitas Indonesia
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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Beberapa waktu lalu, bisnis global Donald Trump disorot publik Amerika Serikat dan dunia karena dinilai berpotensi menimbulkan konflik kepentingan setelah Trump resmi terpilih menjadi Presiden Amerika. Saat kampanye pada pertengahan Desember 2016, melalui akun Twitter-nya, pengusaha real estat itu berjanji tidak akan membuat perjanjian bisnis baru. Trump juga telah menutup yayasan keluarga dan membatalkan beberapa proposal proyek, seperti Trump Office Buenos Aires di Argentina dan Trump Riverwalk di India.
Daftar bisnis global Trump dikompilasi dalam laporan Trump Financial Disclosure yang disampaikan kepada Komisi Pemilihan Umum Federal (Federal Election Commission) pada Juli 2015 dan Mei 2016.
Dokumen setebal 104 halaman yang dikutip oleh media-media dunia, seperti The New York Times, VOA, Washington Post, dan Wall Street Journal, tersebut mencantumkan daftar perusahaan milik Trump di penjuru dunia. Unit usaha Trump tersebar mulai di Panama, Irlandia, Skotlandia, Azerbaijan, hingga Indonesia.
Baca: Gandeng Trump Hotel, Berapa Royalti yang Dibayarkan MNC?
Dalam data tersebut, terungkap ada empat perusahaan yang memiliki keterangan atau deskripsi cukup jelas mempunyai transaksi dengan unit usaha PT MNC Land Tbk (KPIG), yakni PT Lido Nirwana Parahyangan dan PT Bali Nirwana Resort. MNC Land merupakan unit usaha MNC Group milik konglomerat Hary Tanoesoedibjo.
MNC Land sedang menggandeng Trump Hotel Collection dalam mengembangkan kawasan resor terintegrasi dengan taman hiburan di Lido, Jawa Barat, dan kawasan nirwana resor di Tanah Lot, Bali. Megaproyek yang diberi nama MNC Lido City dan Bali Nirwana Resort tersebut direncanakan membutuhkan total nilai investasi sekitar Rp 20 triliun.
Baca: Dampak Trump, Ekonom: Waspadai Pelarian Dana ke Luar Negeri
Empat perusahaan yang ada dalam daftar perusahaan milik Trump tersebut adalah:
1. DT Marks Lido LLC
Deskripsi: memiliki perjanjian lisensi dengan PT Lido Nirwana Parahyangan, Indonesia
Lokasi: New York
Status perusahaan: LLC
Jenis pendapatan: royalti
Jumlah pendapatan: US$ 1-5 juta (Rp 13,4-67 miliar)
2. DT Lido Technical Services Manager LLC
Deskripsi: memiliki perjanjian manajemen dengan PT Lido Nirwana Parahyangan, Indonesia.
Lokasi: New York
Status perusahaan: LLC
Jenis pendapatan: management fee
Jumlah pendapatan : US$ 83.333 (Rp 1,11 miliar)
3. DT Marks Bali LLC
Deskripsi: memiliki perjanjian lisensi dengan PT Bali Nirwana Resort
Lokasi: New York
Status perusahaan: LLC
Jenis pendapatan: royalti
Jumlah pendapatan: US$ 1-5 juta (Rp 13,4-67 miliar)
4. DT Bali Technical Services Manager LLC
Deskripsi: memiliki perjanjian manajemen dengan PT Bali Nirwana Resort
Lokasi: New York
Status perusahaan: LLC
Jenis pendapatan: management fee
Jumlah pendapatan: US$ 83.333 (Rp 1,11 miliar)
Baca : Rupiah Diproyeksi Menguat Setelah Pelantikan Donald Trump
Selain empat perusahaan tersebut, masih ada belasan perusahaan lain yang namanya terasosiasi dengan Indonesia, tapi penjelasannya tidak rinci. Semua perusahaan tersebut terdaftar di New York, yang sebagian berstatus LLC atau limited liability company dan sebagian lain berstatus corporation (corp) atau korporasi.
LLC merupakan bentuk spesifik perusahaan swasta Amerika yang struktur bisnisnya menggabungkan status pajak pass-through dari kemitraan atau kepemilikan tunggal dengan kewajiban korporasi yang terbatas. Adapun corporation adalah badan hukum yang mempunyai banyak perusahaan di bawahnya yang memiliki hak dan kewajiban yang berbeda dengan perusahaan di bawahnya. Belasan perusahaan tersebut adalah:
5. DT Bali Golf Manager LLC
6. DT Bali Golf Manager Member Corp
7. DT Bali Hotel Manager LLC
8. DT Bali Hotel Manager Member Corp
9. DT Bali Techincal Services Manager Member Corp
10. DT Lido Golf Manger LLC
11. DT Lido Golf Manager Member Corp
12. DT Lido Hotel Manager LLC
13. DT Lido Hotel Manager Member Corp
14. DT Lido Technical Services Manager Member Corp
15. DT Marks Bali Member Corp
16. DT Marks Lido Member Corp
ABDUL MALIK
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Liputan6.com, Jakarta Bursa saham Amerika Serikat (AS) atau wall street menguat seiring data ekonomi AS yang positif. Saat ini pelaku pasar menanti pelantikan presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump pada 20 Januari 2017.
Dalam laporan DBS Indonesia menyebutkan, seperti ditulis Senin (16/1/2017) menjelang pelantikan Donald Trump, investor terus berharap pada kemungkinan stimulus yang besar selama masa jabatan presiden AS Donald Trump.
Adanya keyakinan terhadap stimulus fiskal yang kuat akan terus mendorong pasar saham AS. Ditambah data ekonomi AS antara lain data manufaktur dan upah AS yang kuat jadi dorongan sentimen.
Sebelumnya pemulihan ekonomi AS mendapatkan momentum karena pertumbuhan aktivitas manufaktur dan tingkat upah kalahkan ekspektasi.
BACA JUGA
Rata-rata penghasilan per jam naik 0,4 persen MoM pada Desember, lebih tinggi dari harapan pasar kenaikan 0,3 persen MoM. Indeks manufaktur ISM naik 54,7 pada Desember, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan konsensus 53,8.
Di sisi lain, kenaikan inflasi di Amerika Serikat (AS) dapat memicu respons hawkish dari bank sentral AS atau the Federal Reserve dan pengetatan moneter yang agresif. Sejumlah sentimen itu mempengaruhi wall street.
Dari internal, ada sejumlah rilis data ekonomi yang telah dikeluarkan antara lain realisasi defisit Indonesia tercatat 2,46 persen dari produk domestik bruto (PDB), lebih besar dari target awal 2,35 persen. Inflasi tercatat 3,02 persen sepanjang 2016. Selain itu, cadangan devisa Indonesia pada Desember 2016 mencapai US$ 116,4 miliar. Sedangkan indeks manufaktur Indonesia turun menjadi 49 pada Desember 2016 dari periode November sekitar 49,7.
Pada pekan ini, data ekonomi yang keluar antara lain neraca perdagangan Indonesia, produk domestik China (PDB) China, produksi industri China.
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bloomberg: Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers attacked the policy proposals of Donald Trump on several fronts, saying the president-elect’s plans for deregulation were setting the stage for the next financial crisis.
Jawboning Automakers
“Every business deciding whether to locate in Ohio or Mexico is finding Mexico 20 percent cheaper,” said Summers, who’s now a Harvard University professor. “That’s a huge tilt against the United States.”
The peso has lost 14 percent against the dollar since the Nov. 8 election.
Trump, via Twitter, has jawboned a number of companies, including automakers General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp., on their plans for expansion in Mexico. “Toyota Motor said will build a new plant in Baja, Mexico, to build Corolla cars for U.S. NO WAY! Build plant in U.S. or pay big border tax,” Trump said in a Twitter post on Jan. 5.
Trump’s plans to reduce corporate taxation, Summers said, would “hugely increase inequality” and could also help strengthen the dollar, further hurting U.S. exporters and the people who work for them.
While Summers favors a big increase in infrastructure spending in the U.S. as a way to boost productivity and growth, he called Trump’s plans on that front “a Potemkin village of nothing.”
Trump’s proposal called for filling an estimated $1 trillion “10-year funding gap” of spending on bridges, highways and airports through private investment and tax credits. Prospects for the plan in Congress among Republican lawmakers are unclear.
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the economist: Investors bet on tax cuts, repatriated profits and deregulation
SELL on the rumour, buy on the news runs one version of a hoary stockmarket adage. And it certainly applied to last month’s presidential election. Before the poll, many investors were concerned about the risk that Donald Trump might become the 45th president. But as soon as the result was confirmed, they piled into shares. American equity mutual funds enjoyed four consecutive weeks of inflows, the longest streak since 2014, according to EPFR Global, a data provider.
One driver of the rally was Mr Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus. Investors believe this will lead to bigger deficits; hence the rise in bond yields since the election. But they also hope it will boost the American economy. That may explain why the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, which tend to have a domestic focus, has outperformed the S&P 500 since the election (see chart). If this goes on, such stocks may become known as the Trumpettes.
Another factor was the planned cut in corporate-tax rates. The official American corporate income-tax rate is 35% (rising to 39% when state taxes are added). Standard & Poor’s, a ratings agency, reckons that the effective rate paid by companies is 29%—largely because profits earned abroad are not repatriated and so are not taxed. Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup reckons that a cut in corporation tax from 35% to 20% would boost earnings per share for S&P 500 companies by 7%, even allowing for the offsetting impact of a stronger dollar and higher interest rates (both of which seem likely in 2017).
Investors may also be smacking their lips at the prospect of companies’ repatriating their overseas cash piles. A repatriation tax “holiday” in 2004 saw companies bring back around $600bn, much of which was used to buy back shares or pay dividends. Mr Levkovich estimates that investors may receive cash worth around 3% of the American stockmarket’s total current value. A lot of this money may be ploughed back into equities.
But the effect on the American market has not been uniform. The best-performing bit of the stockmarket since the election has been financial firms. In terms of individual sectors, banks and life-insurance companies have both managed double-digit percentage gains. Investors clearly hope that the repeal of financial-services regulation, as well as a steepening of the yield curve, will boost Wall Street’s profits—something voters in the rustbelt might not have realised would be one striking consequence of a Trump victory.
More broadly, the election has prompted a shift out of stocks such as power utilities and consumer-goods producers, which are less tightly linked to the overall strength of the economy, and into more cyclical shares such as miners and construction companies. The poor old utility stocks have suffered a double whammy since the election. Such firms pay high dividends and are often treated as alternatives to government bonds by income-seeking investors; as a result, they have been caught up in the bond sell-off since November 8th.
All this has had some perverse effects. One popular investor strategy has been to buy shares with low volatility (those that tend to rise and fall less rapidly than the overall market); exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been set up specifically to own low-vol shares. According to BNP Paribas, a French bank, low-vol ETFs outperformed the rest of the American market in the first seven months of the year. But in the aftermath of the election, low-vol ETFs fell in price and actually became more volatile than the overall market.
The danger in all this is that the market gets ahead of itself. By the middle of 2017 investors expect the earnings of S&P 500 companies to have risen at an annual rate of 12.3%. Some of this reflects a recovery in the energy sector after last year’s falls in oil prices. But even if energy stocks are excluded, profits are expected to be 7.9% higher, according to Société Générale, another French bank.
In recent years analysts have regularly forecast that companies would produce double-digit percentage growth in profits, only to be disappointed. It may well happen again. Even if Mr Trump’s proposals get through Congress unscathed, they may take time to have an impact on the economy, and thus on corporate profits.
In the meantime, equities trade on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (which averages profits over the past ten years) of 27.3, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University. That valuation is 63% above the long-term average. And interest rates look poised to rise, a development that has in the past upset equity markets. The first blast of the Trumpettes may yet be followed by a loud raspberry.
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Jakarta detik - Yield obligasi pemerintah Indonesia 10 tahun berangsur-angsur turun ke 8.038 setelah di awal minggu menyentuh level tertinggi sejak Maret 2016. Pengaruh kemenangan Trump membuat dana asing keluar dari emerging market Asia termasuk Indonesia sebesar US$ 7,7 miliar. Pagi ini, US$/IDR spot dibuka melemah 3 poin dibandingkan penutupan Rp 13.585.
Demikian disampaikan Analis Global Market Bank Mega, James Evan Tumbuan dalam risetnya seperti dikutip detikFinance, Kamis (1/12/2016).
The Fed Beige Book yang berisi rangkuman komentar kondisi ekonomi dari 12 district bank sentral AS menunjukkan peningkatan ekonomi terutama dari sektor retail khususnya furnitur dan pakaian. DXY ditutup di 101.50. Obligasi pemerintah AS kembali melemah dengan peningkatan yieldsebesar 9,5 bps. Hal ini juga diikuti dengan anjloknya harga obligasi secara global.
Regional
OPEC bersepakat untuk melakukan pemotongan jumlah produksi harian menjadi 32,5 juta barel per hari. Harga minyak mentah meningkat ke US$ 49,10 per barel pagi ini.
Saham Asia terkena dampak harga minyak di mana Nikkei menguat 1.75%. Bullish-nya sektor saham membuat yen tersungkur dengan 115.03 menjadi target resisten. Keputusan OPEC berdampak juga pada turunnya harga emas ke US$ 1171.06 per troy ons membuat Aussie melemah 1,62% ke level 0.7387 terhadap US$. (drk/drk)
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Sungguh, dunia terperangah melihat kemenangan Donald J. Trump yang kontroversial sebagai presiden ke-45 AS pada 8 November lalu. Apa dampak Trump (Trump effects) bagi Indonesia?
Dunia keuangan global langsung bereaksi tajam. Nilai tukar beberapa mata uang eksoktis dunia terhadap dolar AS tampak gonjang-ganjing. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS pun melemah sekitar 2%. Demikian pula indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) terkoreksi hingga sekitar 5%.
Belum lepas dari ingatan kita semua, Trump dengan konfrontatif mengumandangkan janji-janji dalam kampanyenya. Tercatat ada tidak kurang dari delapan janji utama dalam kampanye. Sebut saja, Trump akan membangun tembok raksasa perbatasan AS-Meksiko untuk membendung arus pengungsi Amerika Latin. Janji lainnya, Trump akan melarang muslim masuk ke AS. Trump pun akan mengubah Obamacare dengan mencabut UU Perlindungan Pasien dan Perawatan yang terjangkau.
Sebagai gantinya, Trump akan menyusun sistem asuransi kesehatan yang berorientasi pasar. Kemudian, Trump akan memangkas pajak perusahaan dan kelas menengah, membatalkan perjanjian iklim Paris, memperkuat militer AS dan memotong anggaran planned parenthood. Bukan hanya itu. Trump juga melakukan proteksi perdagangan dalam negeri terhadap Tiongkok.
Efek Trump
Apa dampak efek Trump bagi Indonesia terutama di bidang ekonomi, keuangan dan perbankan ke depan? Pertama, secara umum, sekiranya semua janji itu akan dilaksanakan oleh Trump akan membutuhkan dana sangat tinggi. Tidak ayal lagi, hal itu akan amat membebani anggaran pemerintahan Trump pada masa mendatang.
Saat ini saja rasio utang terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) AS mengalami kenaikan dari 103% menjadi 104,17% di tengah ambang batas 60%. Dengan bahasa lebih bening, utang AS akan terus naik apabila hasrat untuk menunaikan semua janji itu.
Maka sudah semestinya hal itu menjadi pertimbangan bagi Trump untuk tidak menambah utang lagi. Sebagai perbandingan, tengok pula rasio utang negara-negara maju Jepang 229,20%, Perancis 96,10%, Inggris 89,20% dan Jerman 71,20%. Bagaimana negara-negara yang tergabung dalam BRICS? Brasil 66,23%, Rusia 17,70%, India 67,20%, Tiongkok 43,90% dan Afrika Selatan 50,10%. Rasio utang Indonesia yang 27% lebih baik dari negara-negara Asean lainnya seperti Singapura 104,70%, Malaysia 54%, Vietnam 50,50%, Filipina 45,05% dan Thailand 44,40%.
Untuk mengatasi krisis 2008, pemerintah AS menggelontorkan dana ke pasar keuangan AS dengan cara membeli surat berharga dalam empat gelombang. Gelombang pertama pada Maret 2009-Maret 2010 dengan dana US$ 1,5 triliun. Karena dirasakan belum cukup untuk menciptakan lapangan kerja yang maksimum, The Fed meluncurkan dana ke pasar keuangan (quantitative easing/QE) tahap kedua pada November 2010-Juli 2011. Suntikan dana yang dilakukan pada tahap ini US$ 75 miliar.
Gelombang ketiga dikenal dengan istilah Operation Twist. Diluncurkan pada September 2011, The Fed membeli surat berharga jangka panjang US$ 667 miliar. Tahapan terakhir (QE3) diluncurkan September 2013 dengan suntikan US$ 40 miliar. Seluruh kebijakan QE dan Operation Twist ini diumumkan berhenti pada Desember 2013. The Fed juga mengumumkan kebijakan baru tapering off yang pada dasarnya merupakan pembalikan kebijakan QE (Makmur Keliat, 2014).
Kedua, memang kondisi ekonomi dalam negeri AS dewasa ini tampak membaik. Hal itu tampak dari beberapa indikator berikut. Tingkat pengangguran membaik dari 5% menjadi 4,9% per Oktober 2016. Jumlah pengangguran menurun dari 7,94 juta menjadi 7,79 juta orang, sebaliknya tawaran lowongan kerja naik dari 5,45 juta menjadi 5,49 juta.
Apa arti indikator yang membaik itu? Artinya, suku bunga acuan AS alias The Fed Fund Rate yang kini menyentuh 0,50% bisa pelan-pelan (gradually) naik menjadi 1-2% seperti yang diutarakan Janet Yellen, gubernur Bank Sentral AS. Oleh karena itu, kemungkinan besar suku bunga acuan AS akan mulai mendaki pada pertengahan Desember 2016.
Ketika suku bunga acuan AS terus naik-naik ke gunung, maka amat dicemaskan dana panas yang selama ini masuk ke negara-negara emerging markets termasuk Indonesia akan pulang kampung (capital outflow) ke negara Paman Sam. Mengapa? Karena para investor akan mencari imbal hasil yang lebih tinggi.
Untuk itulah, adalah tepat bagi Bank Indonesia (BI) untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan BI 7 Day Reverse Repo rate pada level 4,75% pada sidang Dewan Gubernur BI pada medio November 2016. Suku bunga acuan Indonesia sudah jauh turun dari 6,50% setelah BI rate berubah menjadi BI 7 Day Reverse Repo rate pada 19 Agustus 2016. Sekalipun demikian, level 4,75% ternyata masih terbilang tinggi di antara negara-negara Asean lainnya, seperti Vietnam 6,5%, Malaysia 3%, Filipina 3%, Thailand 1,50% dan Singapura 0,07%.
Oleh karena itu, BI hendaknya tetap mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 4,75% untuk sementara ini sampai The Fed menegaskan kepastian kenaikan suku bunga acuan AS. Selama ini, suku bunga deposito sudah mulai turun signifikan lantaran biaya dana (cost of fund) semakin kecil. Nah, ketika kenaikan suku bunga acuan AS menjadi kenyataan, maka hal itu dapat mengganggu laju penurunan suku bunga deposito.
Padahal, penurunan suku bunga deposito itu amat diharapkan dapat menyetrum suku bunga kredit untuk ikut turun. Tatkala suku bunga kredit lebih terjangkau (affordable), maka diharapkan sektor riil makin menikmati kredit perbankan untuk melakukan ekspansi bisnis.
Tak berhenti di situ. Ancaman kenaikan suku bunga acuan AS juga akan menjadi hambatan target pemerintah berupa suku bunga kredit tunggal (single digit) atau di bawah 10% pada akhir 2017. Ini semua akan menjadi kendala penting dalam mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,1% pada akhir 2016.
Ketiga, selain itu, janji Trump untuk menjalankan proteksi perdagangan terutama terhadap Tiongkok akan menjadi gangguan tersendiri bagi perdagangan internasional Indonesia. Liriklah indikator perdagangan AS hingga Oktober 2016. Nilai ekspor AS ternyata juga mengalami kenaikan dari US$ 188.159 juta menjadi US$ 189.195 juta.
Begitu pula sebaliknya, nilai impor mengalami penurunan dari US$ 228.621 juta menjadi US$ 225.635 juta. Namun defisit anggaran terhadap PDB naik dari 2,5% menjadi 3,20% (Indonesia 2,53%). Indikator perdagangan itu bisa menguatkan wacana Trump untuk melakukan proteksionisme. Selama ini Tiongkok menjadi negara tujuan ekspor nomor utama bagi Indonesia.
Dengan demikian, proteksionisme tersebut dapat menekan ekspor Indonesia ke Tiongkok. Inilah pekerjaan rumah bagi Indonesia untuk membendung wacana tersebut. Salah satu caranya adalah melalui pertemuan tahunan Forum Kerja sama Ekonomi Asia Pasifik (APEC) di Lima, Peru pada 19-20 November 2016.
Indonesia sebagai negara adi daya di Asean dapat memberikan gambaran terang benderang tentang dampak negatif manakala proteksionisme dilakukan oleh Trump.
Kini saatnya bagi Indonesia untuk memainkan peran penting sebagai “pemimpin†Asean. Apalagi sejatinya, pertumbuhan ekonomi global saat ini berpusat di Asia dengan motor pertumbuhan ekonomi India 7,10%, Filipina 7,10%, Tiongkok 6,70% dan Vietnam 6,40%.
Hal itu penting untuk disampaikan mengingat APEC merupakan forum kerja sama 21 negara dan entitas ekonomi di Pasifik yang memiliki total nilai ekonomi hingga 60% dari perekonomian global dengan jumlah penduduk mencapai 40% dari populasi global.
Sarinya, APEC merupakan forum yang mempunyai kekuatan tawar (bargaining power) tinggi terhadap wacana Trump itu. Sebagai catatan, Obama akan hadir dalam forum itu sebelum melepas jabatannya.
Paul Sutaryono, Pengamat Perbankan & Mantan Assistant Vice President BNI
http://id.beritasatu.com/home/menakar-efek-trump/153030
Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY
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Washington, Nov 23, 2016 (AFP)Donald Trump signaled Tuesday his campaign trail dismissal of the threat of climate change may have been hot air after all, saying he was "open minded" on supporting global accords.
The US president-elect emerged from cabinet-building talks in his Trump Tower headquarters and traveled ten minutes across town to The New York Times to give a wide-ranging interview on his plans.
He disavowed "alt-right" activists who hailed his election as a victory for white supremacy, distanced himself from calls to prosecute Hillary Clinton and defended his global business empire.
And he appeared to soften his pledge to pull the United States out of accords such as last year's COP21 Paris Agreement, that binds countries to national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
"I'm looking at it very closely. I have an open mind to it," he told New York Times executives and journalists over lunch at their headquarters, according to the paper's own account.
Campaigning ahead of November 8, Trump repeatedly told crowds of rustbelt and southern voters -- factory workers, coal miners and oilmen among them -- that he would tear up international climate agreements.
As far back as 2012 he had tweeted: "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive."
Now elected and due to become president on January 20, when he was confronted by Times columnist Thomas Friedman he admitted there may be a link between human industry and global warming.
"I think there is some connectivity. Some, something. It depends on how much," he said, adding he would nevertheless remain concerned about how much green measures would "cost our companies."
- Nazi salutes -
The New York Times sit-down, which followed a reportedly hostile off-the-record clash with TV network chiefs on Monday, appeared to represent a perhaps temporary truce with the hated media.
Trump regularly -- as recently as earlier Tuesday -- insults the "failing New York Times" in tweets, but distanced himself from threats to toughen libel laws and engaged cheerfully with the paper.
"I do read it. Unfortunately," he admitted. "I'd live about 20 years longer if I didn't."
He also, under repeated questioning, denounced the so-called alt-right, after leaders of the movement met in Washington at the weekend and celebrated his victory with Nazi salutes.
He insisted, somewhat controversially, that his sprawling global business empire does not represent a conflict of interest for a president -- at least not according to lawyers he has consulted.
"The law's totally on my side, the president can't have a conflict of interest," he told the paper.
Trump also said that he was reconsidering his position favoring the authorization of torturing detainees after sitting down with retired general James Mattis over the weekend to discuss naming him as secretary of defense.
He reported that he would "love" to clinch a deal to end the intractable conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, but on the bloodshed in Syria, Trump was more vague, saying "we have to end the craziness that's going on."
Trump gushed in his admiration for President Barack Obama, whom he will replace in the White House, telling the paper, despite the aggressive tone of his campaign, he had been honored to meet Obama. And he stepped back from threats to prosecute his defeated rival Clinton.
During the campaign, Trump had accused Clinton of illegally destroying email records to cover up wrongdoing and alleged fraud at her charitable foundation -- as his fans chanted "Lock her up."
- Special prosecutor -
Trump was asked by The New York Times whether he stood by a threat, made to Clinton's face in their second debate, to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate her.
"I think it would be very, very divisive for the country," the president-elect admitted.
In common with his predecessors, the Republican billionaire has been in no hurry to name a cabinet, leaving the reporters gathered under Trump Tower chasing after rumors as he holds court above.
And if the Washington political class was expecting the populist provocateur of the campaign trail to hire a top team from the institutional mainstream, it could well be disappointed.
His picks include a chief strategist who is a self-described "economic nationalist" and a national security adviser who -- eased into retirement by Obama -- went to dine with Vladimir Putin.
And why would Trump, a 70-year-old tycoon and reality television star whose defiance of political norms led him to win the world's highest office in his first foray into an election, change now?
- Time to give thanks -
According to two opinion polls published Tuesday, a majority of voters are optimistic that his efforts to "make America great again" will lead the nation to a brighter future.
According to data from Quinnipiac University, most voters think he should stop tweeting but, by a margin of 59 to 37, most "are optimistic about the next four years with Donald Trump as president."
A similar CNN/ORC poll found a narrow majority, 53 percent of voters, thought Trump would do a good job.
Late Tuesday, Trump arrived for a family Thanksgiving break at his golf resort in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, where onlookers lined the street, taking pictures and cheering as his motorcade pulled in.
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