ihsg per tgl 16 Oktober 2014 (Ellen May naek ROLLERCOASTER Oktober)

 SUPER PANIK, super CRA$H tiba, well, time2buy as ALWAY$
... menurut memori gw, Dow pernah ambrol 1000 poin pada satu saat beberapa taon yang lalu, akibat crash sistem transaksi yang dipicu oleh perilaku sistem High Frequency Trading ... namun segera REBOUND terjadi dan kondisi pasar kembali normal ... juga Dow pernah ambrol puluhan persen dalam Oktober 1987, namun pada 1997 Dow NAEK 1000% ... well, investor itu OPTIMISTIK, bukan superoptimistik apalagi pesimistik :)
ilmu maen saham SEDERHANA bagi CALON TRADER SAHAM beneran

JAKARTA - Melemahnya data-data ekonomi global membuat pasar saham di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Eropa membuat pasar saham Asia terkoreksi. Akibatnya, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 25,3 poin atau 0,51 persen menjadi 4.937,61.

Pagi ini, 17 saham menguat, 99 saham melemah, dan 46 saham stagnan. Mengawali perdagangan, telah terjadi transaksi sebesar Rp150,538 miliar dari 106,707 juta lembar diperdagangkan.

Relitrade Securities dalam risetnya memaparkan, pasar Eropa dan Amerika ditutup di zona merah, setelah sejumlah data seperti CPI China dan Retail Sales Amerika dirilis di bawah ekspektasi. "Terlihat IHSG belum mempunyai tekanan naik yang cukup kuat," jelas riset tersebut, Kamis (16/10/2014).

Indeks LQ45 turun 6,17 poin atau 0,7 persen menjadi 832,94, Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) melemah 5,03 poin atau 0,8 persen menjadi 647,74, indeks IDX30 turun 3,27 poin atau 0,8 persen menjadi 428,56, dan indeks MNC36 terkoreksi 1,64 poin atau 0,6 persen menjadi 263,32.

Sektor-sektor penggerak IHSG kompak melemah, dengan sektor industri dasar dan sektor tambang memimpin pelemahan 0,7 persen, sementara sektor perkebunan, properti, industri dasar, perdagangan dan keuangan turun 0,6 persen.

Di Asia, indeks Nikkei melemah 313,27 poin atau 2,08 persen menjadi 14.760,25, indeks Hang Seng turun 188,70 poin atau 0,82 persen menjadi 22.951,35, dan indeks Straits Times turun 1,14 persen menjadi 3.162,21.

Adapun saham-saham yang bergerak dalam jajaran top gainers, antara lain saham PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) naik Rp675 ke Rp59.000, saham PT Acset Indonusa Tbk (ACST) naik Rp135 ke Rp3.465, dan saham PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL) naik 125 poin ke Rp5.675.

Sedangkan saham-saham yang berada dalam jajaran top losers, antara lain saham PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) turun Rp500 menjadi Rp20.325, saham PT Siloam International Hospitals Tbk (SILO) turun Rp375 menjadi Rp13.625, dan saham PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) turun Rp300 menjadi Rp22.200.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2014/10/16/278/1052832/sentimen-global-bawa-ihsg-start-di-jalur-merah




Sumber : OKEZONE.COM
JAKARTA kontan. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dibuka melorot pagi ini (16/10). Data RTI menunjukkan, pada pukul 09.23 WIB, indeks turun 0,55% menjadi 4.935,47.
Terdapat 138 saham yang bergerak negatif. Sementara, jumlah saham yang naik sebanyak 57 saham dan 47 saham lainnya diam di tempat. Volume transaksi pagi ini melibatkan 606,596 juta saham dengan nilai transaksi Rp 619,801 miliar.
Sepuluh sektor kompak menurun. Tiga sektor dengan penurunan paling dalam di antaranya: sektor agrikultur yang turun 1,44%, sektor industri dasar turun 0,92%, dan sektor keuangan turun 0,7%.
Saham-saham yang mengalami penurunan terdalam pada indeks LQ 45 di antaranya: PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) turun 3,84% menjadi Rp 20.025, PT Express Transindo Tbk (TAXI) turun 2,12% menjadi Rp 1.155, dan PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP) turun 1,97% menjadi Rp 11.175.
Sementara itu, sejumlah saham yang berada di posisi top gainers pada indeks LQ 45 yakni: PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL) naik 3,15% menjadi Rp 5.725, PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WSKT) naik 0,57% menjadi Rp 880, dan PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) naik 0,29% menjadi Rp 17.250.

Editor: Barratut Taqiyyah

INILAHCOM, New York - Bursa saham ASberjangka panik. Dow Jones anjlok hingga minus 369 poin hanya dalam hitungan jam setelah pembukaan sesi Wall Street. Bahkan indeks S&P500 telah menghapus semua keuntungan yang diakumulasinya sepanjang 2014.
Wall Street mengalami kekacauan. Investor bingung dan panik. Aksi sell off yang terjadi sesi pembukaan merupakan hal terburuk yang pernah terjadi di bursa Amerika itu. Kepanikan dipicu terjadinya kekacauan di bursa saham Eropa yang melemah minus 2,5% dalam sehari.
Kondisi itu diperparah dengan kejatuhan yieldobligasiAmerika bertenor 10-tahun hingga di bawah 2,0%. Ini adalah peristiwa yang kali pertama terjadi sejak 2013.
Pemicunya disebut-sebut karena akselerasi pengalihan risiko yang dilakukan para pelaku pasar di tengah ketakutan mereka atas pelambatan ekonomi setelah inflasi di Eropa menuju teritori deflasi yang berbahaya. Situasi kian kacau karena kejatuhan harga minyak yang teramat tajam. (edm)

World Economy Gives Investors Growth Scare as They Look to U.S.

By Simon Kennedy and Andrew Mayeda - Oct 15, 2014

The global economy faces its biggest test of confidence since the European sovereign debt crisis as investors fear it’s running out of engines.
Japan and the euro area are throwing up fresh signs of weakness by the day and emerging markets such as China are dragging instead of driving growth. The sense of tumult is being exacerbated by war in the Middle East, the standoff in Ukraine, street protests in Hong Kong and the spread of Ebola to Dallas.
The worry is that five years since the world limped out of recession, central banks have virtually exhausted their stimulus arsenals if activity keeps fading. That leaves the hopes of financial markets riding on the U.S. to resume its historical role as a locomotive robust enough to pull up demand elsewhere.
“The global economy and the markets have a history of traumatic economic events,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas SA in New York. “Psychologically and physically they have not recovered fully and are anxious about a relapse.”
The doubts were evident across financial markets yesterday as a bear market in oil deepened, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index came close to surrendering its gains for the year and bonds from Germany to the U.S. rallied. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of investor nerves known as the VIX, is at its highest since June 2012.
U.S. stocks pared losses after Bloomberg News reported that Fed Chair Janet Yellen voiced confidence in the durability of the American expansion at a closed-door meeting in Washington last weekend. The S&P 500 closed 0.8 percent lower after dropping as much as 3 percent.

Avoiding Commodities

A Bank of America Corp. survey of fund managers this week showed the lowest optimism in the outlooks for economic growth and inflation in two years, pushing them to increase their cash balances and avoid commodities.
“Investors have huge questions about the world right now,” said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Sarasota, Florida-based Cumberland Advisors Inc.
The latest catalyst for concern was the news that U.S. retail sales dropped 0.3 percent in September and wholesale prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in a year.
That added to the drumbeat of disappointing data from elsewhere, which this week alone included the weakest German investor confidence in two years and Chinese factory-gate prices dropping for a record-tying 31st month.
Japanese industrial production tumbled 3.3 percent from a year ago, and U.K. inflation unexpectedly plunged to its lowest in five years. Prices in Israel and Sweden are even falling in an indication of deflation.

European Epicenter

The epicenter of the economic worries is the euro area, where European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is trying to tackle the weakest inflation in almost five years as investors bet it will deteriorate further amid signs powerhouse Germany is now faltering.
Having pulled the euro-area economy out of its debt panic in 2012, Draghi has sought to boost prices by cutting interest rates to record lows, issuing cheap loans to banks and laying the groundwork to begin buying private-sector assets this month.
That leaves purchases of government debt as the last option. While Draghi says he is open to quantitative easing if necessary, it would run into opposition from Germany. Governments throughout the bloc have yet to deliver the economic reforms and easier fiscal policy he would prefer to see first.
“Europe has now entered a more dangerous phase in their crisis,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. “They’ve got to do quantitative easing. They don’t have any choice because that’s the only game in town.”

Emerging Markets

Unlike five years ago when they proved strong enough to lift the world out of its slump, emerging markets are now stumbling, too. A property slump in China is pushing down the nation’s annual growth to what analysts project is the slowest pace since 1990, while Brazil is trying to escape the recession it entered in the first half of the year.
Some emerging markets are being sideswiped by subpar global growth as geopolitical tensions from the Ukraine conflict also weigh on investor confidence and threaten to sink Russia’s economy into a recession, Gustavo Reis, a New York-based economist at Bank of America Corp., said in a phone interview.
“We’re seeing an impact not only on the Russian economy, which is pretty visible, but also on European confidence indicators,” Reis said. “That is having an impact on the global economy.”

Oasis of Prosperity

The biggest reason for confidence that the storm will prove short lived are signs the U.S. is again a potential oasis of prosperity even as the foreign weakness and rising dollar draw the concern of Federal Reserve officials.
Grounds for optimism include the lowest unemployment rate in six years, a deleveraging of debt by companies and households and the likelihood cheaper energy and low bond yields will support consumer spending and business investment.
“Things aren’t looking bad enough in the rest of the world to drag the U.S.,” said Peter Hooper, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank AG and a former Fed official. “I wouldn’t say the world’s falling apart by any means.”
The growth scare in markets comes just days after finance chiefs were urged by the International Monetary Fund to find new ways to support their economies after the Washington-based lender again cut its outlook for global growth this year and next.

Budget Deficits

The problem is even with inflation now close to its recessionary lows by some measures, governments and central banks are almost out of ammunition, having exhausted it by swelling budget deficits and cutting interest rates in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
In addition to the ECB, the Bank of Japan is holding off boosting its quantitative-easing program and China is refraining from broad-based stimulus. Germany is pushing back against calls to spend more.
“My concern is that the markets are looking for a ramping up of policy support elsewhere and that may not be delivered,” said Charles Collyns, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance and a former U.S. Treasury official.
Less worried is Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. The U.S. is robust, China is switching to more sustainable growth, cheaper oil should support demand and policy makers can ease policy if they really need to.
“It’s hard to be positive given how negative the mood is in the markets but I think sentiment is unnecessarily pessimistic,” he said.

By William Watts, Ben Eisen, and Anora Mahmudova

Published: Oct 15, 2014 5:22 p.m. ET

Weak U.S. data, Europe, Ebola fears play roles in selloff

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Interconnected worries over deflation, a potential rerun of the eurozone debt crisis and some surprisingly rotten U.S. economic data shocked investors on Wednesday, triggering a whipsaw session that saw stocks plunging only to trim losses before the final bell.
Here’s a rundown of the turmoil across financial markets:

Stocks

It was panic mode in the early going and again in the afternoon. The Dow DJIA, -1.06%  dropped by around 460 points and were on track for the biggest one-day percentage drop in three years before a late rebound. In the end, the index finished down 173.45 points, or 1.1%, at 16,141.74.The S&P 500 SPX, -0.81%  temporarily erased its gain for the year but also trimmed losses by the end of the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 RUT, +1.02%  , which has been under heavy pressure this month, led the late rebound, finishing the day with a 1% gain.
The S&P 500 recorded a decline of more than 9% from its intraday peak reached on Sept. 19 to its trough on Wednesday.
While stock prices climbed the wall of worry for the first nine months of the year, strategists were at a loss to point to a single catalyst for the selloff. It appears a confluence of bad news spooked investors this time.
A trio of disappointing U.S. economic reports — retail sales, the Empire State Index and the producer price index — ahead of the opening bell, problems in Europe and mounting concerns over the threat posed by Ebola were all been cited as reasons for the drop. See: It's the momentum of the economic data that's worrisome.

Treasurys

10yryld_10152014

The 10-year Treasury note yield 10_YEAR, -1.59% which serves as a benchmark for all sorts of borrowing costs from mortgages to students loans took a sharp tumble on Wednesday as investors sought the safety of bonds. At one point Wednesday morning, the yield, which moves in the opposite direction as prices, dropped as much as a third of a percentage point, with the yield pushing below 2% for the first time since June 2013. It rebounded higher to trade at 2.148%, according to Tradeweb
Nonetheless, the 10-year yield is down nearly a full percentage point since the end of last year, defying the expectations of most investors, who were bracing for rising rates. The most recent drop comes as investors found particular reason to fear global economic weakness. Signs of lagging inflation in Europe and slowing growth in Asia combined with weak U.S. numbers to suggest that a slow-growth global economy could delay plans for the Federal Reserve to hike its key lending rates.
Also read: This wild market is telling us inflation RIP and Why QE4 is not on the horizon.

Europe

FOREX.com and Bloomberg

Before the downbeat U.S. economic data, U.S. stock-index futures had already caught a chill from Europe. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index entered correction mode with a drop of 3.3% on Wednesday, bringing it down 11% from its 2014 closing high set in June. A correction is considered a drop of at least 10% from a recent high.
Strains are re-emerging in the eurozone on growing fears the region is stumbling back toward recession and that the underlying causes of the debt crisis remain unresolved. Greek bond yields on Tuesday edged back above 7% and extended the rise Wednesday, while a flight-to-safety has sent the 10-year German bund yield DE10YT, -0.51%  to a record low below 0.8%. Also read:Have a gander at the German bund if you want to see really low yields.
“Right now, there is no sovereign crisis, but the fact that Greek yields have crossed the 7% threshold is a warning sign that all is not well,” said Kathleen Brooks, London-based research director at Forex.com in a note.

VIX

vix

Investors are scared. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX VIX, +15.18% which measures implied volatility on the S&P 500 jumped to as high as 31.06, the highest level since December 2011 during the worst of the eurozone debt crisis. The index traded ended the day at 26.25, a rise of 15.2% on the day.
The index has seen a huge jump when measured versus the persistently and extraordinarily low levels that investors grew accustomed to over the past two years, but it is only slightly above historical average of 20. As the Federal Reserve withdraws its liquidity support, these levels may again become the norm. Also read: Strap in! Wall Street’s roller coaster here to stay.

Oil

Oil prices are collapsing. Losses accelerated this week, with Brent crude LCOX4, -0.55%  and West Texas Intermediate CLX4, -1.08%  dropping more than 20% from their June peaks, meeting a widely-used definition of a bear market.
The breakdown in oil has sent the energy sector swooning, pushing the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF XLE, +0.76%  into a bear market of its own.
Oil futures, saw chopy trade as stocks tanked Wednesday but ended the day in negative territory.

Gold

It has been a seesaw autumn for gold bugs. The yellow metal tumbled sharply in September, as investors looked for the Federal Reserve to begin hiking interest rates next year.The dollar’s fall on Wednesday, coupled with investors looking for a haven, saw gold GCZ4, -0.44%  turn higher, adding to a gain that’s lifted the precious metal around 2.5% so far this month.

The dollar

The U.S. currency has been in rally mode since early September, sending the ICE dollar index DXY, +0.01% a measure of the unit against a basket of six major rivals, to a four-year high in early October. Expectations for Fed tightening was the primary driver, fueling strong gains in particular against the euro EURUSD, -0.08%  as investor expectations grew that the European Central Bank would move in the opposite direction and implement quantitative easing of its own.
The dollar plunged Wednesday as Fed expectations shifted, but the currency soon regained a large chunk of its loss in choppy trading.
“The excitement over a U.S. balance sheet reduction in parallel with an ECB balance sheet rise may at the moment be all talk rather than a given supported action,” said Douglas Borthwick, managing director at Chapdelaine Foreign Exchange.

Ellen May: Roller Coaster Oktober Belum Usai

Ellen May - detikfinance

Kamis, 16/10/2014 08:20 WIB

Jakarta detik -Indeks Dow Jones 15 Oktober ditutup di level 16,141.74 melemah 173.45 point (-1.06%). Bursa Wallstreet masih tertekan dikarenakan kekhawatiran akan perlambatan ekonomi dunia dan Eropa, serta virus Ebola. IHSG ditutup di level 4,962.94 menguat 40.36 poin (0.82%).

Beberapa saham yang berpotensi aktif : ADHI, PTPP, WSKT, WTON, BBNI, DGIK, TLKM, DILD 570-600,GGRM 58000-60000. GIAA 430-460,MEDC capai target range 3650-3800, jika breakout dari range tersebut potensi ke 4000, SSMS 1000-1010.TARA-W capai target kemarin. Next target 260. LCGP dari kemarin masih uptrend.

Sektor batu bara akhirnya breakdown dari support. Peraturan baru dari Tiongkok mengenai naiknya bea impor, yang efektif bulan ini menekan sektor batu bara.

ITMG adalah salah satu perusahaan yang melakukan ekspor ke China cukup besar, yang paling merasakan dampaknya. Kemarin ITMG melemah lebih dari 11 %.China menaikkan tarif impor batu bara karena masih mengalami perlambatan ekonomi dan berusaha mengurangi impor batu bara.

Cara menggunakan #kopipagi: batasi resiko jika harga turun di bawah range. Lindungi keuntungan dengan trailing stop jika harga mendekati range atas / breakout dari range atas #kopipagi

Pasar masih volatil, cenderung downtrend. Cash is the king, menepi, sabar menunggu momen yang terbaik tiba. Demikian #kopipagi 16 Oktober 2014 semoga mencerahkan.

Salam profit, Ellen May.

(ang/ang)