per tgl 29 Mei 2015, TERBUKT1 ekspektasi secara historikal yang gw peroleh datanya dari yahoo finance terjad1 :
tren KENAEKAN IHSG sejak 1997 NGET0P, cius :)
26 Maret 2015, gw punya analisis teknikal: FASE BEARISH @ April 2015 walo REKOR TERTINGGI @ tgl 7 April 2015 analisis data per April 2011-2015: emang bisa NAEK, bisa turun (fifty-fifty) sinyal bullish reversal TIDAK TERJADI seh fase BEARISH TERKONFIRMASI karena SMA 200day dah DI ATAS TREN IHSG (28 April 2015) 30 Apr 2011: 3798.55 28 Mei 2011: 3844.02; +1.19% 28 Apr 2012: 4216.68 26 Mei 2012: 3799.77 ; -9.88% 27 Apr 2013: 4925.48 25 Mei 2013: 5068.63; +2.90% 26 Apr 2014: 4838.76 31 Mei 2014 : 4937.18; +2.03% dalam 4 taon terakhir, ihsg NAEK dalam taon 2011, 2013 (jelang PEMBATALAN KEBIJAKAN QUANTITATIVE EASING the fed), n 2014 (taon politik), sementara ihsg turun pada periode Mei 2012... secara sederhana n kasar berarti secara musiman ada ekspektasi lebe positif tren ihsg akan NAEK pada Mei 2015 ... well, liat aza :) per tgl 13 Mei 2015 (17 taon dah @ MAY RIOTS @ Jakarta 1998), ihsg maseh manjat k 5220an:
per tgl 12 Mei 2015, well, dewi fortuna (luck goddess) tampaknya tersenyum :
... pada 28 April 2015, gw dah menyatakan AKAN BELI SAHAM LEBE BANYAK (time2buy): gaya Ahok LAWAN ARUS, gaya gw MAEN SAHAM KONTRARIAN saat BELI-BELI-BELI + FLDTT + FLDTN @ warteg saham gw 30 April 2015, beli-beli-beli dll LANJUTKAN saat pembalikan ARAH KE NAEK / bullish MULAI terbentuk, tetap BELI seh + FLDTT
JAKARTA ID - Hari raya Lebaran akan tiba sekira dua bulan lagi. Seperti tahun-tahun sebelumnya sejumlah harga barang akan meningkat.
Namun berdasarkan Survei Konsumen Bank Indonesia, ada tiga komponen harga yang akan meningkat signifikan.
"Meningkatnya tekanan kenaikan harga diperkirakan terjadi pada semua kelompok komoditas, dengan kenaikan tertinggi pada kelompok transportasi, komunikasi, dan jasa keuangan," demikian seperti dikutip dari hasil Survei Bank Indonesia (BI) mengenai Survei Konsumen, seperti dikutip Kamis (6/5/2015).
Tingginya permintaan menjelang Hari Raya Idul Fitri ditengarai mendorong terjadinya kenaikan harga pada Juli 2015.
Hal ini terindikasi dari kenaikan Indeks Ekspektasi Harga (IEH) tiga bulan mendatang sebesar 11 poin dari bulan sebelumnya menjadi 179,8.
Secara regional, peningkatan IEH 3 bulan mendatang terjadi di 16 kota yang disurvei, dengan peningkatan indeks tertinggi di kota Padang dan Bandar Lampung.
Survei Konsumen merupakan survei bulanan yang dilaksanakan oleh BI sejak Oktober 1999. Sejak Januari 2007 survei dilaksanakan terhadap kurang lebih 4.600 rumah tangga sebagai responden (stratified random sampling) di 18 kota: Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon dan Banten.
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/05/06/320/1145720/tiga-harga-yang-akan-meroket-jelang-lebaran
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM bloomberg 30 April 2015; Asia is in the driver’s seat of the global equity rally for the first time in nine months.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up 5.2 percent in April, the first time it’s beaten both the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the European benchmark measure since July. Stock gauges in Shanghai and Hong Kong posted some of the world’s biggest gains, climbing to levels not seen in seven years as China’s slowing economy buoyed expectations for additional stimulus.
“The strong performance in Asia thus far has been driven by China,” said Kelvin Tay, Singapore-based chief investment officer for South Asia Pacific at UBS Wealth Management. “The Chinese economy still hasn’t bottomed out so there is more room for further easing. Even if the the U.S. starts normalizing rates, we still have a lot of liquidity sloshing around.”
With the Federal Reserve signaling readiness to raise interest rates this year for the first time since 2006, monetary authorities in Asia are taking up the slack. China’s central bank reduced interest rates twice since November and lowered reserve requirements for lenders this month. The Bank of Japan on Thursday kept record stimulus in place, while policy makers in South Korea cut borrowing costs to an all-time low in March.
All of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 10 industry groups advanced in April, with energy shares soaring 12 percent to lead gains as oil rebounded. Companies that benefit from increased stock turnover in Hong Kong surged, with the city’s bourse operator advancing 56 percent and brokerage Haitong Securities Co. climbing 35 percent.
Europe, U.S.
While central-bank stimulus has also been a boon for Europe’s equity investors, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index soaring 16 percent last quarter as Mario Draghi unveiled an unprecedented bond-buying program, the rally stalled in April. The stock measure was little changed on the month through Wednesday, with gains in Austria offsetting a slump for German exporters as the euro rebounded. Investors are weighing data signaling the region’s economy is recovering, and Greece remains locked in an impasse over bailout aid.
The S&P 500 added 1.9 percent in April through yesterday, posting just one daily move of more than 1 percent in the span. The gauge closed at a record on April 24, a feat that’s become commonplace in a six-year bull market. Fed officials have said their decision on when to raise rates will be guided by the latest data.
A correction is inevitable in May after the four-month rally for Asian equities, according to Khiem Do at Baring Asset Management Ltd. Even as stocks across the region slumped on Thursday, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index still posted a 17 percent surge in April. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 19 percent and the Hang Seng Index rose 13 percent.
Valuations may have run ahead of fundamentals amid signs the world’s biggest economies are slowing, according to Mark Lister, Wellington-based head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners Ltd. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded at 14.8 times estimated earnings on Wednesday, up from 13.5 times at the beginning of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 was valued at a multiple of 17.9 yesterday, compared with 16.8 for the Stoxx 600.
A preliminary gauge of Chinese manufacturing fell to a 12-month low in April, a report showed last week, suggesting government efforts to cushion a slowdown are yet to revive the nation’s factories.
“It makes a lot of sense for people to be taking a bit of risk off the table,” Craig Investment’s Lister said by phone. “The odds of a minor correction over the next few months have probably increased. There’s still a lot of risks out there and people have just got a little bit complacent.”
tren KENAEKAN IHSG sejak 1997 NGET0P, cius :)
Namun berdasarkan Survei Konsumen Bank Indonesia, ada tiga komponen harga yang akan meningkat signifikan.
"Meningkatnya tekanan kenaikan harga diperkirakan terjadi pada semua kelompok komoditas, dengan kenaikan tertinggi pada kelompok transportasi, komunikasi, dan jasa keuangan," demikian seperti dikutip dari hasil Survei Bank Indonesia (BI) mengenai Survei Konsumen, seperti dikutip Kamis (6/5/2015).
Tingginya permintaan menjelang Hari Raya Idul Fitri ditengarai mendorong terjadinya kenaikan harga pada Juli 2015.
Hal ini terindikasi dari kenaikan Indeks Ekspektasi Harga (IEH) tiga bulan mendatang sebesar 11 poin dari bulan sebelumnya menjadi 179,8.
Secara regional, peningkatan IEH 3 bulan mendatang terjadi di 16 kota yang disurvei, dengan peningkatan indeks tertinggi di kota Padang dan Bandar Lampung.
Survei Konsumen merupakan survei bulanan yang dilaksanakan oleh BI sejak Oktober 1999. Sejak Januari 2007 survei dilaksanakan terhadap kurang lebih 4.600 rumah tangga sebagai responden (stratified random sampling) di 18 kota: Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon dan Banten.
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/05/06/320/1145720/tiga-harga-yang-akan-meroket-jelang-lebaran
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA--Wakil Presiden
Jusuf Kalla menargetkan pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal II/2015 akan berada
di atas level 5%, atau lebih tinggi dari capaian kuartal pertama yang
hanya 4,71%.
Kalla mengungkap pemerintah akan terus mempercepat realisasi pencairan anggaran pembangunan untuk menutupi perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tiga bulan pertama tahun ini.
“Ya tentu harus di atas 5%, pasti,” sebutnya di Kantor Wakil Presiden, Rabu (6/5/2015).
Jika muncul hambatan dalam menyalurkan anggaran, maka pemerintah akan lebih gesit mencari solusi untuk menghentikan kendala tersebut.
Percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur bisa mendorong investasi asing langsung mengalir semakin deras ke Indonesia.
Siang tadi, Presiden Joko Widodo dan Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla mengadakan rapat dengan sejumlah menteri bidang ekonomi untuk membahas perekonomian saat ini dan langkah yang akan dilakukan ke depan demi memperlancar pembangunan.
Kalla mengungkap pemerintah akan terus mempercepat realisasi pencairan anggaran pembangunan untuk menutupi perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tiga bulan pertama tahun ini.
“Ya tentu harus di atas 5%, pasti,” sebutnya di Kantor Wakil Presiden, Rabu (6/5/2015).
Jika muncul hambatan dalam menyalurkan anggaran, maka pemerintah akan lebih gesit mencari solusi untuk menghentikan kendala tersebut.
Percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur bisa mendorong investasi asing langsung mengalir semakin deras ke Indonesia.
Siang tadi, Presiden Joko Widodo dan Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla mengadakan rapat dengan sejumlah menteri bidang ekonomi untuk membahas perekonomian saat ini dan langkah yang akan dilakukan ke depan demi memperlancar pembangunan.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up 5.2 percent in April, the first time it’s beaten both the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the European benchmark measure since July. Stock gauges in Shanghai and Hong Kong posted some of the world’s biggest gains, climbing to levels not seen in seven years as China’s slowing economy buoyed expectations for additional stimulus.
“The strong performance in Asia thus far has been driven by China,” said Kelvin Tay, Singapore-based chief investment officer for South Asia Pacific at UBS Wealth Management. “The Chinese economy still hasn’t bottomed out so there is more room for further easing. Even if the the U.S. starts normalizing rates, we still have a lot of liquidity sloshing around.”
With the Federal Reserve signaling readiness to raise interest rates this year for the first time since 2006, monetary authorities in Asia are taking up the slack. China’s central bank reduced interest rates twice since November and lowered reserve requirements for lenders this month. The Bank of Japan on Thursday kept record stimulus in place, while policy makers in South Korea cut borrowing costs to an all-time low in March.
All of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 10 industry groups advanced in April, with energy shares soaring 12 percent to lead gains as oil rebounded. Companies that benefit from increased stock turnover in Hong Kong surged, with the city’s bourse operator advancing 56 percent and brokerage Haitong Securities Co. climbing 35 percent.
Europe, U.S.
While central-bank stimulus has also been a boon for Europe’s equity investors, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index soaring 16 percent last quarter as Mario Draghi unveiled an unprecedented bond-buying program, the rally stalled in April. The stock measure was little changed on the month through Wednesday, with gains in Austria offsetting a slump for German exporters as the euro rebounded. Investors are weighing data signaling the region’s economy is recovering, and Greece remains locked in an impasse over bailout aid.
The S&P 500 added 1.9 percent in April through yesterday, posting just one daily move of more than 1 percent in the span. The gauge closed at a record on April 24, a feat that’s become commonplace in a six-year bull market. Fed officials have said their decision on when to raise rates will be guided by the latest data.
A correction is inevitable in May after the four-month rally for Asian equities, according to Khiem Do at Baring Asset Management Ltd. Even as stocks across the region slumped on Thursday, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index still posted a 17 percent surge in April. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 19 percent and the Hang Seng Index rose 13 percent.
Looking Shaky
“The month of April has been brilliant,” said Do, who helps oversee about $60 billion as head of multi-asset strategy at Baring Asset in Hong Kong. “We should expect some consolidation. With global markets looking a bit shaky at the moment, some trading money managers may look to close some of their positions and lock in some profits. The month of May is always a bit tricky.”Valuations may have run ahead of fundamentals amid signs the world’s biggest economies are slowing, according to Mark Lister, Wellington-based head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners Ltd. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded at 14.8 times estimated earnings on Wednesday, up from 13.5 times at the beginning of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 was valued at a multiple of 17.9 yesterday, compared with 16.8 for the Stoxx 600.
China Economy
The Asian equity gauge slid 1.6 percent as of 4:18 p.m. in Hong Kong Thursday, poised for its biggest drop since January, as Honda Motor Co. slumped after its profit missed estimates and investors digested data showing the U.S. economy barely grew in the first quarter.A preliminary gauge of Chinese manufacturing fell to a 12-month low in April, a report showed last week, suggesting government efforts to cushion a slowdown are yet to revive the nation’s factories.
“It makes a lot of sense for people to be taking a bit of risk off the table,” Craig Investment’s Lister said by phone. “The odds of a minor correction over the next few months have probably increased. There’s still a lot of risks out there and people have just got a little bit complacent.”
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