dengan bollinger band ATAS @ 5182, MAKA jarak teknikal semakin dekat bwat ihsg mencelat k 5200 ... daya beli (stochastic) maseh kuat, sedikit ati-ati saat masuk area jenuh beli seh ... tren jangka pendek, menengah, n panjang dah mirip kejadian 2015 saat ihsg meroket k 5300an ... well, liat aza :)
Dana repatriasi akan masuk karena investor memanfaatkan fasilitas tax amnestyperiode pertama yang berakhir September 2016. Namun, membanjirnya dana berpotensi menimbulkan bubble. Pasar modal akan terkoreksi pada Oktober pasca-berakhirnya tax amnesty periode I.
Tekanan tidak hanya terjadi di saham. Pasar obligasi khususnya milik pemerintah juga terancam tertekan akibat banyaknya investor yang masuk. Investor repatriasi menyerbu obligasi pemerintah karena dianggap mampu membagikan keuntungan tinggi, tapi volatilitas yang lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan saham.
Kendati demikian, gejolak harga obligasi akan lebih tenang lantaran dana yang mengendap juga relatif stabil. Demikian juga dengan industri reksadana yang akan mengalami tekanan.
Turunnya pasar reksadana dipicu oleh fluktuasi saham dan obligasi yang menjadi aset dasar produk tersebut.
Sinyal terjadinya bubble akan terlihat saat valuasi rasio harga saham per laba (PEratio) sudah di atas standar deviasi rata-rata lima tahun. Adapun pada obligasi, bisa dicermati saat yield obligasi bergerak terlalu rendah. Saat itu, kemungkinan akan terjadi profit taking, sehingga pasar turun.
Untuk menghadapi serbuan repatriasi dana, investor bisa terus masuk karena pasar saham diprediksi masih akan meningkat. Karena itu IHSG di akhir tahun akan berada di kisaran 5.200-5.400.
Investor perlu menerapkan investasi secara bertahap karena pasar modal akan tertekan dalam jangka pendek. Namun, koreksi hanya berlangsung sementara saja.
Sementara itu, investor juga harus mengikuti perkembangan pelaksanaan kesuksesan tax amnesty. Langkah ini diambil untuk mengantisipasi pergerakan arah pasar.
Di akhir sesi I, IHSG naik 0,32% atau 16,56 poin ke 5.126,74 setelah berfluktuasi di kisaran 5.093,15-5.127,10.
Pagi ini, indeks dibuka turun tipis 0,04% atau 2,26 poin di level 5.107,92.
Sebanyak 147 saham menguat, 131 saham melemah, dan 254 saham stagnan dari 532 saham yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia.
Tujuh dari sembilan indeks sektoral IHSG bergerak menguat dengan support utama dari sektor anek industri yang melesat 2,29%, sektor pertanian yang menanjak 1,20%, dan sektor tambang yang naik 1,17%.
Adapun sektor finansial dan industri dasar masing-masing bergerak melemah 0,15% dan 0,14%.
Dalam risetnya, Analis PT Waterfront Securities Indonesia Octavianus Marbun memprediksikan pergerakan mixed IHSG pada perdagangan hari ini.
“Indeks di Indonesia hari ini diperkirakan bergerak mixed,” kata Octavianus.
Dikemukakan pasar bursa pada pekan ini menunggu rilis sejumlah data ekonomi, antara lainhousing starts, building permits, Philadelphia Fed, FHFA housing price, existing home sales dan leading indicator.
“Pasar akan mencermati kelanjutan earning season (laporan keuangan) triwulan kedua pada pekan ini,” tambahnya.
Sementara itu, pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah terpantau menipis hingga hanya sebesar 0,08% atau 10 poin ke Rp13.106 per dolar AS pada pukul 12.04 WIB.
Jakarta -Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) mengawali perdagangan awal pekan ini bergerak di zona merah.
Pada perdagangan Senin (18/7/2016), IHSG dibuka turun 2,26 poin (0,04%) ke 5.107,916.
Mengakhiri perdagangan Jumat (15/7/2016), IHSG ditutup menguat 26,639 poin (0,52%) ke 5.110,178. Sementara indeks LQ45 ditutup naik 5,266 poin (0,60%) ke 877.486.
Sementara di pasar uang, dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) bergerak stagnan terhadap rupiah. Berdasarkan data perdagangan Reuters, dolar AS pagi ini dibuka stagnan di Rp 13.090.
Berikut kondisi bursa saham Asia pagi ini:
- Indeks Hang Seng turun 2,41 poin (0,01%) ke 21.656,84
- Indeks SSE Composite turun 8,18 poin (0,27%) ke 3.046,34
- Indeks Straits Times naik 7,24 poin (0,24%) ke 2.932,59
Metrotvnews.com, Jakarta: Pada perdagangan pekan ini Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) diprediksi terus berupaya melanjutkan tren kenaikan untuk menembus level 5.200, setelah pada akhir minggu kemarin menguat ke level 5.110.
"Kami melihat bahwa walaupun terjadi aksi jual harian oleh 'kaum beruang' yang tidak tahan dengan volatilitas regional, pembelian saham big cap dan kedua membuat IHSG hanya tekoreksi tipis," jelas analis PT HD Capital Tbk Yuganur Wijanarko dalam riset yang diterima, Senin (18/7/2026).
Yuganur mengatakan, adanya aksi profit taking di pekan kemarin tidak mampu menjebol level support psikologis 5.000. Keadaan itu, dapat dikatakan bahwa pasar sudah dalam fase tren naik baru untuk breakout pasca konsolidasi di antara 5.100 dan 5.000 menuju di 5.200.
Dia memandang, arus modal masuk masih bisa berlanjut pasca pemberlakuan kebijakan tax amnesty, khususnya ke emerging market seperti Indonesia. ‎Aset berisiko yang dinamis berbentuk saham di Asia, khususnya Indonesia, masih menawarkan alternatif yield yang jauh lebih menarik.
"Itu akan membuat i‎nvestor maupun trader akan mendapatkan return menarik yang outweigh kadar risiko aset tersebut," ungkap Yuganur.
Sementara itu, ‎menurut Kepala Analis PT Asjaya Indosurya Securities, William Suryawijaya‎, pergerakan indeks pada perdagangan hari ini berpotensi untuk melanjutkan tren kenaikan, setelah di akhir pekan kemarin mampu bertahan di atas level resisten psikologis 5.100.
"Kekuatan‎ naik IHSG belum menurun. Sepanjang hari ini indeks berpotensi menguat. Indeks yang menguat tercermin juga pada level support yang tejaga di 5.067, dan target resisten 5.178 perlu ditembus untuk memperkuat pola uptrend," jelas William.
Pada penutupan perdagangan di akhir pekan kemarin, William menuturkan, gerak indeks berhasil mempertahankan posisi di atas level 5.100 yang ditunjang oleh capital inflow hingga lebih dari Rp1 triliun, ‎Bahkan, selama sepekan tercatat inflow di atas Rp5,6 triliun. Hal ini menunjukkan tingkat kepercayaan investor masih cukup tinggi terhadap pasar modal Indonesia.
Tidak hanya itu, indeks yang menguat juga dibantu sentimen positif kenaikan jumlah cadangan devisa Juni 2016 menjadi USD109,79 miliar. Sehingga semakin memperkuat ketahanan ekonomi Indonesia.
Mengamati keadaan satu hari ini, William merekomendasikan kepada pelaku pasar untuk mencermati beberapa pergerakan saham seperti ‎PT PP London Sumatera Indonesia Tbk (LSIP), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF), ‎PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk (WTON), PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk‎ (WIKA), ‎PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI), PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk (PGAS)‎, ‎PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR), PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk (ADHI), dan PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (SMGR).‎
http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/bursa/gNQYXa5N-ihsg-berjibaku-tembus-level-5-200
Sumber : METROTVNEWS.COM
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA—Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) diprediksi cenderung melemah pada perdagangan Senin (18/7/2016).
Tim Riset Mandiri Sekuritas memperkirakan indeks diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran 5.070-5.150.
Sebelumnya, indeks ditutup menguat dengan naik 26 poin atau 0,52% ke level 5.110.
Dengan melihat kondisi dari berbagai indikator teknikal, lanjutnya, IHSG berada dalam kondisioverbought.
“Oleh karena itu, dalam beberapa hari kedepan kami estimasi IHSG akan berpeluang memasuki fase konsolidasi dengan kecenderungan terkoreksi,” paparnya dalam riset.
Adapun saham yang dinilai perlu untuk dicermati pada hari ini:
Kode
|
Rekomendasi
|
Target Harga (Rp)
|
Stop Loss (Rp)
|
Keterangan
|
PGAS
|
BUY
|
2.750
|
2.550
|
Day trade
|
BSDE
|
BUY
|
2.100
|
1.950
|
Day trade
|
Sumber: Mandiri Sekuritas
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA -- Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) diprediksi masih dalam tren naik menuju level 5.200.
Pada perdagangan Jumat (15/7/2016), IHSG ditutup di posisi 5.110,18, naik 0,52% dari hari sebelumnya. HD Capital melihat walau terjadi aksi jual harian dari pelaku pasar pengikut kaum beruang yang tidak tahan dengan volatilitas regional, pembelian saham big caps dan lapis hanya terkoreksi tipis dan tidak melebih level psikologis pada perdagangan Senin (18/7/2016).
"Pasar sudah dalam fase tren naik baru untuk breakout pascakonsolidasi antara level 5.100-5.000 ke level psikologis resistance berikutnya di 5.200," tulis HD Capital dalam website resminya yang dikutip pada Minggu (17/7/2016).
Menurutnya, arus modal masuk masih bisa berlanjut pasca-tax amnesty, khususnya ke pasar negara berkembang seperti Indonesia. Aset berisiko yang dinamis berbentuk saham di Asia dan emerging market khususnya Indonesia masih menawarkan alternatif imbal hasil atau capital gain yang jauh lebih menarik. Investor maupun trader akan mendapat return menarik yang outweigh kadar risiko aset tersebut.
Saham pilihan HD Capital yakni ASII dengan target Rp7.600, BMRI dengan target Rp10.250, WIKA dengan target Rp2.975, dan TLKM dengan target Rp4.350.
JAKARTA. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) mengawali pekan perdana semester kedua ini dengan gemilang. Dalam sepekan, indeks melonjak 2,79% ke level 5.110,18 ketimbang akhir pekan lalu. Sepekan ini, IHSG hanya terkoreksi pada Kamis (14/7) akibat profit taking.
Transaksi pasar saham pekan ini jauh lebih ramai ketimbang rata-rata sepanjang 2016. Nilai transaksi rata-rata pekan ini sebesar Rp 8,42 triliun dengan volume rata-rata 6,79 miliar saham. Nilai dan volume transaksi rata-rata harian sepanjang tahun ini masing-masing 5,87 triliun dan 5,36 miliar saham.
Analis Recapital Securities Liga Maradona mengatakan, penguatan IHSG selama sepekan didukung bursa regional, global dan sentimen domestik. Dari kawasan regional, Jepang menghembuskan angin segar. Pemilihan umum berjalan lancar.
"Ada juga spekulasi Jepang untuk menambah stimulus," kata Liga kepada KONTAN, Jumat (15/07).
Dari dalam negeri, isu tax amnesty terus menyulut penguatan IHSG selama sepekan ini. Cadangan devisa di akhir semester pertama yang masih meningkat ketimbang bulan sebelumnya ikut menopang pergerakan indeks pekan ini.
Krishna Setiawan, analis Lautandhana Securindo, mengatakan, IHSG awal pekan depan akan cenderung mixed antara naik dan turun. "Kalau naik, ya naiknya tipis. Turun pun begitu," jelas Krishna.
Krishna memprediksi, rentang IHSG berada di 5.080-5.130. Sedangkan Liga memperkirakan, IHSG akan terkoreksi, setelah melaju kencang, dengan kisaran 5.005-5.175. "Pasar rebalancing dulu, slow down," jelas Liga.
bisnis.com: Kabar24.com, BERLIN - Seorang politisi Jerman menuding Presiden Turki melakukan pembersihan lawan poltik dengan cara-cara yang mirip Partai Nazi.
ISTANBUL. Di tengah upaya kudeta oleh segelintir anggota militer yang membangkang di Turki, kekuatan politik negara tersebut menjadi sorotan warga dunia.
Christian Lindner, Pemimpin liberal Partai Demokrat Bebas (FDP) Jerman, dalam tulisan yang diterbitkan Minggu (7/8/2016) menyamakan pembersihan lembaga negara oleh Presiden Turki dengan langkah partai Nazi pada 1930-an.
Lindner mengatakan melihat kesamaan perilaku Presiden Turki Tayyip Erdogan dengan keadaan setelah kebakaran Reichstag pada 1933, yang dilakukan Nazi sebagai rencana Komunis melawan pemerintah dan digunakan Adolf Hitler untuk membenarkan semua pembatasan kebebasan warga.
"Kami mengalami kudeta seperti itu pada 1933 setelah kebakaran Reichstag. Dia membangun rezim otoritatif, yang dibentuk semata-mata untuk dirinya," kata Lindner kepada surat kabar Bild am Sonntag.
"Karena hak dan kebebasan pribadi tidak lagi berperan, dia tidak dapat menjadi rekan bagi Eropa," tambah Lindner.
Tanggapannya itu diutarakan kembali oleh politisi sayap kanan Austria, Heinz Christian Strache, yang pada Sabtu mengatakan kebijakan Erdogan terhadap pemberontakan gagal pada Juli tersebut untuk menyingkirkan lawannya mengingatkan kembali terhadap kebijakan Hitler terhadap kebakaran Reichstag untuk mendapatkan kekuasaan lebih.
Erdogan menyangkal tuduhan bahwa dia atau pemerintahanya kemungkinan berada di balik kudeta gagal itu, tempat dia menyalahkan kejadian itu kepada pemuka agama di Amerika Serikat. Erdogan lolos dari penangkapan atau bahkan pembunuhan pada malam kudeta tersebut.
FDP saat ini tidak mewakili Bundestag (Parlemen) Jerman, namun sebelumnya berperan sebagai sebuah pihak koalisi dari partai konservatif pimpinan Kanselir Angela Merkel, CDU, dan menjadi rekan potensialnya setelah pemilihan umum pada musim gugur 2007.
Meskipun demikian, Lindner mengkritik tanggapan Merkel sejauh ini terhadap tindakan keras yang dijatuhkan kepada lawan-lawan Erdogan dalam pihak militer, pegawai negeri, akademisi dan media.
"Itu membuat saya kecewa bahwa diskusi penambahan (bagi Turki) tidak diakhiri sebelumnya. Namun Nona Merkel hanya mendesak 'proporsionalitas'," kata dia.
Menteri luar negeri Jerman pada Jumat menahan dorongan dari Austria untuk menghentikan diskusi dengan Turki terkait keanggotaannya dalam Uni Eropa, mengatakan bahwa blok negara itu perlu untuk berpikir lebih luas terkait bagaimana cara membentuk hubungan mereka dengan Ankara pada saat-saat bermasalah.
ISTANBUL. Di tengah upaya kudeta oleh segelintir anggota militer yang membangkang di Turki, kekuatan politik negara tersebut menjadi sorotan warga dunia.
Sejumlah analis politik menilai, kegagalan aksi kudeta akan memperkuat posisi presiden Turki Recep Tayyip Erdogan dibandingkan para pesaingnya.
Secara garis besar, kegagalan aksi kudeta dipicu oleh sejumlah faktor. Sebut saja minimnya dukungan publik, kurangnya perencanaan aksi, dan ketidakjelasan dukungan dari petinggi militer.
Yang terpenting lagi adalah dukungan dunia internasional terhadap posisi Erdogan yang terpilih secara demokratis. Dukungan terhadap Erdogan tetap mengalir kendati banyak negara yang menilai sang presiden Turki itu memerintah secara otoriter.
Setelah aksi kudeta, bagaimana dampaknya terhadap Turki?
Erdogan akan lebih berkuasa?
Saat pendukung Erdogan di seluruh dunia mengecam aksi kudeta, para pemimpin dunia mengingatkan agar Erdogan tidak menyalahgunakan momen ini sebagai alasan untuk mengonsolidasikan kekuasaannya. Sebelumnya, Erdogan memang mendorong untuk dilakukannya reformasi konstitusional yang memberikan peran lebih besar kepada presiden sebagai kepala negara sekaligus kepala eksekutif, untuk mempertahankan kekuasaannya.
Para menteri luar negeri Eropa dalam pertemuan Senin kemarin di Brussels menyatakan, Erdogan harus menghormati "penegakan hukum" dan mengimbau agar mengendalikan kekuasaannya.
Meski demikian, salah satu analis berpendapat, bersatunya seluruh partai politik menentang aksi kudeta berpotensi untuk menyetujui pembatasan polarisasi dalam kancah politik domestik di negara tersebut.
Doruk Ergun, peneliti dari EDAM research foundation yang berbasis di Istanbul, mengatakan meskipun Erdogan tidak memiliki track record yang cukup baik, fakta bahwa seluruh partai politik bersatu menentang kudeta berpotensi menciptakan pembatasan polarisasi pada dunia politik Turki.
"Kami melihat tingkat polarisasi di level yang cukup tinggi di negara itu. Kejadian ini memberikan mereka (Erdogan dan aliansinya) sebuah kesempatan yang baik untuk tidak menentang pihak oposisi dan melihat mereka sebagai partmet dalam memperbaiki kembali demokrasi Turki sebagai tanggungjawab mereka," paparnya.
Penegakan hukum
Erdogan, yang mendirikan partai AK yang konservatif dan islami, bersumpah untuk membalas dendam atas aksi kudeta. Dia bahkan berjanji melakukan pembersihan di tubuh pemerintahan dari apa yang dia sebut sebagai "virus".
Hingga saat ini, pemerintahan Erdogan langsung melakukan upaya pembersihan di tubuh militer dan pemerintah. Hasilnya, 6.000 orang militer dan hakim ditahan.
Sebagian besar, Erdogan menuding Fethullah Gulen -tokoh politik oposisi Turki yang tinggal di AS- sebagai dalang dari aksi kudeta dan meminta agar dia diekstradisi ke Turki.
Gulen sendiri membantah tuduhan tersebut dan mengatakan Erdogan bisa saja melakukan settingan kudeta sebagai langkah untuk menjatuhkan para penentangnya dan membatasi hak asasi manusia.
Setelah upaya kudeta, Erdogan menyerukan pemberlakuan kembali hukuman mati yang sebelumnya dihapus pada 2004 lalu sebagai bagian dari ambisi Turki untuk bergabung dengan Uni Eropa (UE).
Kekhawatiran juga muncul terkait perlakuan yang diterima oleh tahanan aksi kudeta pada pekan ini setelah sejumlah foto menampilkan tentara dengan tangan terikat ditelanjangi hingga tinggal mengenakan pakaian dalam saja.
Anthony Skinner, head of Political Risk dari Verisk Maplecroft mengatakan aksi Erdogan semakin "kejam".
"Respon refleks Erdogan ketika ditantang oleh masyarakat sipil atau kelompok oposisi selama beberapa tahun terakhir telah menjadi kombinasi pembangkangan, konfrontasi dan intimidasi," papar Skinner.
Skinny juga menguraikan, upaya kudeta memang permainan yang berbeda dibandingkan Aksi Protes di Taman Gezi di 2013 lalu atau aksi korupsi oleh sejumlah aliansi Erdogan oleh pendukung Gulen. Pada waktu itu, Erdogan tidak melakukan penahanan. "Saat ini, pemerintah Turki mempertimbangkan kembali untuk menerapkan hukuman mati akibat pengkhiatan yang dilakukan," tambahnya.
Turki bisa hengkang dari Uni Eropa
Uni Eropa mengancam, jika Turki memberlakukan kembali hukuman mati, maka mereka akan mencabut keanggotaan negara tersebut.
Kemarin, politisi Eropa dan Menteri Luar Negeri AS John Kerry mengimbau Turki untuk menghormati penegakan hukum. Hal itu diungkapkan Kerry saat menggelar pertemuan dengan 28 menteri luar negeri Uni Eropa, termasuk kepala kebijakan luar negeri Uni Eropa Federica Mogherini.
"Kami mengimbau agar Turki menegakkan hukum dan kami dari Uni Eropa menekankan pentingnya penegakan demokrasi, hak asasi manusia, dan kebebasan fundamental," jelas Mogherini.
Dia melanjutkan, jika Turki kembali memberlakukan hukuman mati -yang sudah dihapus pada 2004 lalu- maka secara otomatis hal itu akan membuat Turki ditendang keluar dari keanggotaan.
"Tidak ada negara yang dapat menjadi anggota Uni Eropa jika memberlakukan hukuman mati," tegas Mogherini.
Keamanan dan terorisme
Upaya kudeta juga memicu kecemasan atas peran Turki dalam memerangi kelompok militan Islam (ISIS).
Turki merupakan salah satu aliansi utama negara-negara Barat dalam memerangi ISIS di Suriah, yang berbatasan dengan Turki. Negara ini juga diandang sebagai gerbang masuk ke Eropa.
Uni Eropa pada tahun lalu melakukan kesepakatan dengan Turki untuk melarang masuknya arus migran dari negara-negara konflik.
"Aliansi Turki di NATO menunjukkan solidaritas di belakang Erdoga dan pemerintahannya. Kendati demikian,respon presiden atas upaya kudeta juga dapat menempatkan posisi Erdogan tertekan dengan aliansi Baratnya," jelas Skinner dari Verisk Maplecroft.
Pariwisata, investasi, dan makroekonomi
Di luar kondisi geopolitik dan upaya kudeta, fokus saat ini kembali pada perekonomian Turki pasca guncangan politik yang terjadi.
Perekonomian Turki sangat tergantung pada sektor pariwisata. Sayangnya, sejumlah tempat wisata tampak dalam keadaan rusak akibat serangan bom dari ISIS dan kelompok separatis Kurdi dalam beberapa tahun terakhir.
Salah satu serangan paling besar adalah serangan di bandara Istanbul Juni lalu yang menyebabkan 41 orang tewas dan ratusan lainnya terluka. Hal ini kian menekan sektor pariwisata Turki lebih dalam.
Padahal, sebagai sebuah emerging market, Turki merupakan merupakan salah satu kesempatan investasi menarik bagi investor yang menari investasi dengan imbal hasil tinggi.
Pada Senin (18/7), mata uang dan pasar saham Turki juga bereaksi positif atas status quo politik yang berhasil dipertahankan.
Mata uang lira -yang sempat keok 5% versus dollar AS- berhasil rebound dan ditutup pada level 2,9398. Sebelum aksi kudeta, nilai tukar lira berada di posisi 2,90.
Sedangkan indeks acuan Turki, The Bora Istanbul, ditutup dengan penurunan 3,6% meskipun penurunan yang tidak terlalu dalam ini mengejutkan analis.
"Dari perspektif investor, Turki terlihat lebih seperti kasus keranjang politik," kata Dani Rodrik, Ekonom Harvard University. Ekonomi Turki diproyeksikan tumbuh melambat menjadi 3%-4% di sepanjang tahun 2016 dari pertumbuhan 4,5% pada 2015.
Presiden Turki Tayyip Erdogan, melalui panggilan video facetime, mengklaim memegang kontrol penuh atas pemerintahan di Turki usai malam tadi faksi angkatan darat negara tersebut mengumumkan telah mengambil alih kekuasaan.
Mata uang Turki, lira, anjlok 4,78% ke 3,0157 pada akhir perdagangan pekan ini, penurunan harian paling tajam sejak 2008. Indeks iShares MSCI Turki yang diperdagangkan di New York merosot 2,5% pada penutupan perdagangan.
“Ini adalah syok politik yang tidak diduga Satu-satunya kesimpulan adalah akan ada gejolak politik lanjutan. Banyak dana telah mengalir ke Turki, pasti sebagian akan berbalik keluar. Mata uang Turki pasti melemah hingga ada kepastian,” kata Jorge Mariscal dari UBS Group AG kepadaBloomberg.
Turki adalah pasar keuangan di wilayah timur Eropa dengan kinerja terbaik tahun ini sebelum upaya kudeta, menguat 15% sejak awal tahun. Ekonomi Turki tumbuh 4,8% pada kuartal I/2015, lebih pesat dari proyeksi ekonom.
Emad Mostaque, dari Ecstrat Ltd, memperkirakan saham yang diperdagangkan di Turki bisa jatuh hingga 20% bagaimanapun kelanjutan dari upaya kudeta Jumat malam.
“Walaupun kudeta gagal, ini adalah bencana bagi Turki. Risiko politik akan melesat. Kudeta yang sukses juga tidak bagus bagi pasar karena partai Erdogan memiliki dukungan politik yang kuat,” kata Mostaque.
Turki telah tiga kali melalui kudeta militer sejak 1960. Namun, pengaruh militer telah merosot drastis sejak partai Ak yang dipimpin Erdogan berkuasa pada 2002.
Kudeta militer terakhir pada 1997 membuat indeks Istambul merosot 15% dalam 3 hari perdagangan. Indeks kemudian berbalik reli dan naik hingga 254% sepanjang tahun.
ANKARA. Kendati gagal, kuedeta militer terhadap pemerintahan resmi Turki memunculkan keraguan terhadap investor. Pelaku pasar menilai, kudeta militer menambah kekuatiran investor terhadap masa depan ekonomi Turki.
Otoritas maritim Turki membuka kembali selat Bosphorus setelah sempat beberapa menutup jalur perdagangan utama kapal tanker minyak tersebut. Turki membuka kembali lalu lintas di Bosphorus, Sabtu (17/7).
BACA JUGA :
Asal tahu saja, Bosphorus merupakan salah satu titik penting di jalur transit minyak mentah. Bosphorus melayani lalu lintas lebih dari 3% dari pasokan global, terutama dari Rusia dan Laut Kaspia.
Selat Bosphorus resmi berjalan normal setelah pasukan Pemerintah Turki menghancurkan sisa-sisa dari upaya kudeta militer, menyusul kekerasan dan bentrokan di Ankara dan Istanbul. Agen pengiriman minyak mentah di Bosphorus menyatakan, lalu lintas kapal telah dibuka kembali setelah ditutup selama beberapa jam karena alasan keamanan.
"Sekarang kapal mampu melakukan perjalanan lagi melalui ke sisi Eropa dan Asia," ujar agen tersebut seperti dilansir Reuters, kemarin.
Setelah kabar terjadinya percobaan kudeta militer beredar, mata uang Turki, lira anjlok 4,78% ke posisi 3,0157 per dollar AS, pada akhir perdagangan akhir pekan lalu. Ini merupakan penurunan harian paling tajam nilai tukar lira sejak tahun 2008.
Stabilkan pasar
Presiden Turki Tayyip Erdogan mengklaim telah memegang kontrol penuh atas pemerintahan di Turki. Untuk menenangkan hati investor, Bank Sentral Turki menyatakan bahwa mereka akan menawarkan likuiditas terbatas kepada bank.
“Fundamental makro ekonomi Turki tetap kuat. Kami telah melakukan hal-hal yang perlu dilakukan untuk menstabilkan pasar,” ujar Mehmet Simsek, Wakil Perdana Menteri seperti dikutip The Financial Times.
Kemarin, Simsek menggelar konferensi melalui telepon (conference call) dengan para investor untuk memastikan kestabilan ekonomi Turki. Namun, kudeta untuk menggulingkan Erdogan merupakan pukulan bagi ekonomi Turki yang sangat bergantung pada investasi asing. Pasalnya, mata uang Turki terus melemah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) sehingga memperbesar risiko kenaikan inflasi.
Turki juga masih menderita defisit anggaran yang terus membesar. Dus, upaya kudeta militer memperbesar ketidakpastian sekaligus mengancam aliran investasi dan pariwisata Turki. "Ini adalah kejutan kepercayaan yang sangat serius, tetapi tergantung pada bagaimana depresiasi mata uang akan berlanjut," kata Murat Ucer, ekonom Global Source Partners.
Upaya kudeta menambah berat beban ekonomi Turki. Pasalnya, gejolak politik terus terjadi sementara gelombang serangan teroris menekan industri pariwisata. Padahal, selama ini sektor pariwisata merupakan sumber penting devisa Turki.
Nah, pendapatan Turki dari sektor pariwisata telah terpukul akibat serangan teroris yang terjadi sejak tahun lalu. Termasuk serangan di Bandara Ataturk, Istanbul yang menewaskan lebih dari 40 orang pada bulan lalu. Akibatnya, pendapatan pariwisata menurun 23% pada Mei 2016.
"Dari perspektif investor, Turki terlihat lebih seperti kasus keranjang politik," kata Dani Rodrik, ekonom Harvard University. Ekonomi Turki diproyeksikan tumbuh melambat menjadi 3%-4% di sepanjang tahun 2016 dari pertumbuhan 4,5% pada 2015.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA - Indeks Wall Street flat pada akhir pekan setelah membukukan reli paling panjang dalam 4 bulan terakhir.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial hanya menguat 0,05% pada akhir perdagangan Jumat ke level 18.516,55, sedangkan indeks Standard & Poor’s tersandung 0,09% ke level 2.161,74.
“Biarpun hari ini flat, pekan ini sudah fantastis. Kami kini mulai fokus pada data ekonomi dan pendapatan emiten. Hal yang menjadi perhatian kami sebelum Brexit,” kata Mark Kepner dari Themis Trading LLC kepada Bloomberg, Sabtu (16/7/2016)
Reli di Wall Street pekan ini telah mendorong Dow Jones dan S&P ke level tertinggi historis. Bloomberg menyatakan valuasi anggota indeks S&P sudah mencapai 20 kali pendapatan, valuasi tertinggi sejak 2009. S&P telah menguat 8,1% dalam 3 minggu dan mendapat tambahan kapitalisasi hingga US$2 triliun.
Tren positif di bursa New York dipicu oleh sentimen Brexit yang mendorong investor memindahkan dana mereka dari Uni Eropa. Pelaku pasar berspekulasi The Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku buga tahun ini di saat bank sentral lain di dunia berupaya menekan dampak Brexit terhadap ekonomi mereka.
Namun, reli dalam tiga pekan terakhir bisa berbalik arah jika pendapatan emiten mengecewakan. Analis memproyeksikan pendapatan emitan enggota S&P turun 5,8% pada kuartal II/2016. Netfilx Inc, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, dan Intel dijadwalkan mengumumkan kinerja mereka pekan depan.
vox:
Ömer Taşpınar is a nonresident senior fellow in Brookings Center on 21st Century Security and Intelligence, and an expert on Turkey. I spoke to him on Friday evening aboutthe attempted coup against President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan. A lightly edited transcript of our conversation follows.
I know very little about Turkish politics. So how should I understand what is going on in the country right now?
It’s quite unexpected, even for those following Turkish politics. Erdogan appeared to be totally in charge. The country was polarized between his supporters and those who complained about his islamist and autocratic tendencies — to many, he was establishing a dictatorship. But he appeared to have established civilian control over the military. No one expected a small fraction of the military to try to engage in a coup.
What happened, I think, is a failed coup attempt by mid-rank officers who were unable to establish chain of command or unity of command. The top brass of the Turkish army did not support the coup. It was an unprofessional, unorganized, botched coup attempt.
Why do experts seem so certain right now that the coup is failing?
Because, in past coups, the military acted with unity and chain of command. It controlled the media, the government institutions, the politicians, and it put the PM in jail. Now what we have is a chaotic situation where it became obvious that it was only a fraction of the military acting. Erdogan was loose, he was able to connect with the media, he was able to turn tens of thousands of supporters into the streets. There was no curfew, no martial law, no stability and order. The police and the army were facing off, with the police loyal to Erdogan.
If it was only a fraction of the military behind the coup, what do you think they sought to achieve? Obviously they wanted Erdogan out, but then what?
It’s too early to say, but the two suspected groups are the Gulenists and the Kemalists. The Gulenists are former allies of Erdogan. They’re a moderate, Islamic social movement — they’re not Salafists or fundamentalists. The Kemalists are secularists, nationalists, and angry with Erdogan’s Islamist policies.
The Gulenists played a major role in the past as allies of the Erdogan government. But by 2010 or 2011, the Gulenists broke from Erdogan and went after him with corruption allegations. It was the beginning of the big rupture in Turkey’s Islamist movement.
It is well-known the Gulenists had followers within the Turkish military, but their stronghold in Turkey was traditionally with their police force and judiciary. Erdogan in the last couple of years has purged the police and the judiciary of Gulenists. This is why the Turkish media, controlled by Erdogan, is saying this might have been organized by the Gulenist officers.
If the coup does fail, will it give Erdogan more authority, and more of a rationale, to consolidate power and tip the country closer to authoritarianism?
Erdogan is prone to conspiracy theories. He is already very paranoid about losing power. He wants to control everything in Turkey. All these tendencies will be exacerbated by what happened. He will redouble his efforts to consolidate power and control over all institutions. It will give him an excuse to push forward with his executive presidency agenda — he may say that this coup proves Turkey needs his agenda and a new Constitution to ensure it is controlled by the people.
I think what happened in Turkey proves that there is really an unprecedented situation in the country. The military is no longer very strong. It has no real sense of chain of command. Those hoping Erdogan could be stopped by military coup were proven wrong. Improving Turkish democracy and stopping Turkey’s descent into authoritarianism has to come through the civilian opposition and free elections, not military coup.
Erdogan will survive this and try to establish an even stronger dictatorship. Now it is the time for Europe and the United States to engage Turkey and tell Erdogan he has to be more inclusive and democratic.
Does the US and the EU have leverage over Erdogan, particularly given how paranoid he’ll be after this coup attempt?
The United States has some leverage over Turkey, but the EU is in a better position, because Turkey and Erdogan want to be part of the European Union, and there is actually a European roadmap to improve Turkish democracy. So the best thing the US could do is support the European Union in engaging Turkey, and not let the EU downplay the autocratic tendencies of Erdogan in return for cooperation on Syrian refugees.
The European Union should uphold its democratic standards in dealing with Turkey and not succumb to Turkey’s bullying because of its geostrategic importance or the Syrian refugee question.
the turkey analyst: BACKGROUND: The Turkish Armed Forces are on the road to rehabilitation following a decade of marginalization in Turkish politics and society. The dismissal of the so called Sledgehammer case, the breakup of the alliance between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Gülenist fraternity, and the deteriorating security situation in the Kurdish southeast of Turkey have all been deciding factors in this process. With a broadening role for the military in internal security and an improved relationship between AKP leaders and the generals, will the Turkish armed forces once again become an active player in politics?
reuters: At the height of the attempt to overthrow Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, the rebel pilots of two F-16 fighter jets had Erdogan's plane in their sights. And yet he was able to fly on.
The Turkish leader was returning to Istanbul from a holiday near the coastal resort of Marmaris after a faction in the military launched the coup attempt on Friday night, sealing off a bridge across the Bosphorus, trying to capture Istanbul's main airport and sending tanks to parliament in Ankara.
"At least two F-16s harassed Erdogan's plane while it was in the air and en route to Istanbul. They locked their radars on his plane and on two other F-16s protecting him," a former military officer with knowledge of the events told Reuters.
"Why they didn't fire is a mystery," he said.
A successful overthrow of Erdogan, who has ruled the country of about 80 million people since 2003, could have sent Turkey spiraling into conflict and marked another seismic shift in the Middle East, five years after the Arab uprisings erupted and plunged its southern neighbor Syria into civil war.
A senior Turkish official confirmed to Reuters that Erdogan's business jet had been harassed while flying from the airport that serves Marmaris by two F-16s commandeered by the coup plotters but that he had managed to reach Istanbul safely.
A second senior official also said the presidential jet had been "in trouble in the air" but gave no details.
Erdogan said as the coup unfolded that the plotters had tried to attack him in the resort town of Marmaris and had bombed places he had been at shortly after he left. He "evaded death by minutes", the second official said.
Around 25 soldiers in helicopters descended on a hotel in Marmaris on ropes, shooting, just after Erdogan had left in an apparent attempt to seize him, broadcaster CNN Turk said.
Prime Minister Binali Yildirim had also been directly targeted in Istanbul during the coup bid and had narrowly escaped, the official said, without giving details.
Flight tracker websites showed a Gulfstream IV aircraft, a type of business jet owned by the Turkish government, take off from Dalaman airport, which is about an hour and a quarter's drive from Marmaris, at about 2240 GMT on Friday.
It later circled in what appeared to be a holding pattern just south of Istanbul, around the time when a Reuters witness in the airport was still hearing bursts of gunfire, before finally coming in to land.
Gunfire and explosions rocked both Istanbul and Ankara through Friday night, as the armed faction which tried to seize power strafed the headquarters of Turkish intelligence and parliament in the capital. At one point it ordered state television to read out a statement declaring a nationwide curfew.
But the attempt crumbled as forces loyal to Erdogan pushed the rebels back and as the Turkish leader, at one point appearing on broadcaster CNN Turk in a video call from a mobile phone, urged people to take to the streets to support him.
More than 290 people were killed in the violence, 104 of them coup supporters, the rest largely civilians and police officers.
The aerial aspect of the plot appears to have centered on the Akinci air base around 50 km (30 miles) northwest of Ankara, with at least 15 pilots involved under the orders of a rebel commander, according to the former military officer.
The head of the armed forces, Hulusi Akar, was held hostage at the base during the coup attempt but was eventually rescued. Jets from Akinci piloted by the rebels roared low over Istanbul and Ankara repeatedly during the chaos of Friday night, shattering windows and terrifying civilians with sonic booms.
Fighter jets taking off from another air base at Eskisehir, west of Ankara, were scrambled to bomb Akinci and try to stop the rebels. However, the rogue aircraft were able to keep flying through the night by refueling mid-air after a tanker plane was commandeered, the first senior official said.
The tanker aircraft was taken from the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, which is used by the U.S.-led coalition to bomb Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. The commander of Incirlik was detained on Sunday for complicity, the official said.
MASTERMINDS
Three senior officials in Ankara said Akin Ozturk, head of the air force until 2015 and a member of High Military Council (YAS), the top body overseeing the armed forces, was one of the masterminds of the plot. He was among thousands of soldiers detained, pictured on Sunday in handcuffs wearing a striped polo shirt at Ankara police headquarters.
Ozturk was due to be retired this August at a meeting of the YAS, which convenes twice a year. According to his biography, still on the military's website, he was born in 1952.
The second mastermind was thought to be Muharrem Kose, a former legal adviser to the chief of military staff, the same three Ankara officials said. They described Kose as a follower of Fethullah Gulen, a U.S.-based cleric whose network Erdogan has blamed for carrying out the coup attempt.
Kose was removed from his post in March for misconduct but had not been discharged from the armed forces, one of the officials said. His whereabouts are currently unknown.
"There were serious preparations ongoing for a very long time. The two people in question seem to have been the brains behind the coup attempt," the official said, declining to be identified because the investigation is still continuing.
Erdogan and the government have long accused Gulen's followers of trying to create a "parallel structure" within the courts, police, armed forces and media with the aim of seizing power, a charge the cleric has repeatedly denied.
"NOT FULLY PREPARED"
Erdogan, his roots in Islamist politics, has always had a difficult relationship with the military, which long saw itself as the guardian of secularism in Turkey, carrying out three coups and forcing a fourth, Islamist-led government from power in the second half of the 20th century.
Coup plot trials saw hundreds of officers jailed while Erdogan was prime minister, as the government used the courts to clip the wings of the armed forces. The allegations were later discredited and convictions overturned, but the actions damaged morale and fueled resentment.
Yet the coup plotters appear to have overestimated the support they would find within the military ranks.
"It was outside the chain of command which was the biggest handicap for the coup plotters," said Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and a former Turkish diplomat.
"They had an insufficient portfolio of resources. They were grossly under-equipped to achieve their strategic objectives ... There was definitely quite a degree of incompetence compared to how coups were done here in the past."
At one point they tried to silence CNN Turk, forcing the evacuation of the studio. When it came back on air, anchorwoman Nevsin Mengu described the soldiers as young and with "only fear in their eyes and no sign of devotion or determination".
The former military officer said the coup plotters appeared to have launched their attempt prematurely because they realized they were under surveillance, something corroborated by other officials in Ankara.
"They weren't fully prepared. The plans were leaked, they found out they were being monitored and it all apparently forced them to move faster than planned," the ex-officer said.
They also underestimated Erdogan's ability to rally the crowds, his appeal for supporters to take to the streets bringing people out in Istanbul, Ankara and elsewhere even as tanks took to the streets and jets screamed overhead.
Sertac Koc, press adviser to the mayor of Kazan district where the Akinci base is located, said local residents started noticing the high number of jets taking off as events unfolded.
"When they saw jets hitting parliament in Ankara and people in Istanbul, they got organized among themselves and marched to the base to try and stop them," he told Reuters by phone.
"They tried to block traffic to the base by parking their vehicles, burning hay to block the jets' vision, and in the end they attempted to cut the power to the base," he said.
Seven people were killed when the rebel soldiers opened fire, Koc said, among the dozens of civilians killed across the country in one of Turkey's worst nights of bloodshed.
(Additional reporting by Tom Miles in Geneva, Paul Taylor in Brussels; Writing by Nick Tattersall; editing by David Stamp)
Turkey's latest 'civilian coup'
In the old days, the military staged coups in Turkey. That seems to have changed.
In recent months, we have witnessed a surprising series of civilian takeovers of institutions that were the traditional domains of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). These new developments include the increasing input of the civilian bureaucracy in weapons procurement, supplies and services for the TSK, and moves to break up the monopoly of defense companies managed by retired generals. The management changes in OYAK (Armed Forces Assistance Corporation) have been the latest "extraordinary civilian takeover."
OYAK is a gargantuan credit union and aid fund that all officers and noncommissioned officers (NCOs) of the TSK are required to join. About 10% of monthly salaries of all officers and NCOs are automatically deducted as their OYAK contribution. Although junior officers are generally unhappy with this compulsory reduction in their disposable incomes, they realize how beneficial it can be as their retirement age approaches. These officers and NCOs are entitled to a substantial retirement bonus from OYAK in addition to their regular retirement benefits from the state retirement fund. For example, a four-star general with 40 years of service gets about $250,000 retirement bonus from OYAK, while a colonel with 30 years gets $110,000 and an NCO about $90,000.
The true shareholders of OYAK, then, are the officers and NCOs. This naturally makes the military high command influential in shaping OYAK's management. For example, the chief of general staff appoints three members of OYAK’s seven-person executive board. Other members are assigned from the state bureaucracy with the knowledge and approval of the chief of general staff.
Under CEO Coskun Ulusoy, who unexpectedly resigned May 13, OYAK has become a giant holding and international actor through its foreign acquisitions in many fields. OYAK is a major player — a dominating force to be exact — in the iron-steel, automotive and cement sectors where it has invested billions of dollars in Turkey. Its iron-steel plants in Eregli and Iskenderun, as well as Renault car and cement operations make a significant contribution to the nation's economy. More than 30,000 people work in its 87 companies that operate in 19 countries.
As of 2015, OYAK’s total economic worth was estimated at $20 billion, with annual exports of $3.3 billion.
All these figures show that OYAK is not merely a simple credit union but a rich, big, powerful and fertile economic conglomerate for TSK personnel. Traditionally, the Turkish military usually kept foreigners out of OYAK and only granted entry to local civilians that it trusted. But major changes in its top management in May somehow did not receive much attention from Turkish media.
Unusual developments at OYAK initially came to attention at the beginning of May. The first surprise was the resignations of retired Lt. Gen. Necati Ozbahadir and his colleagues from the largely symbolic executive board. Then came the legendary CEO Ulusoy's resignation.
Retired Maj. Gen. Mehmet Tas became chairman of the board and Suleyman Savas Erdem, who was the deputy head of the Prime Ministry Inspection Board, was appointed as CEO, the post with true powers.
The resignation of Ulusoy, who for 16 years successfully managed OYAK with a firm hand, along with four of his deputies and the CEOs of major subsidiaries, has led to questions as to whether there was a purge. According to Metin Munir of the news website T24, what happened amounts to a "civilian coup." Munir said with this civilian coup "the TSK’s rule of OYAK has ended and the AKP [Justice and Development Party] era has started." According to Munir, all upper-level managers appointed to work under Ulusoy with the blessings of the high command will be removed and new managers loyal to the AKP will replace them over time. He thinks that the AKP does not intend to expand OYAK with this shakeup but wants to first shrink it through privatization and eventually eliminate it.
Eyes are now on the new CEO Erdem. A 1996 graduate of political science and public administration from Middle East Technical University, Erdem began his government career in 1997 as assistant inspector at the Prime Ministry Inspection Board and rose to the post of chief inspector in 2007. Although Erdem has attended various training courses in the United States and has some managerial experience in the private sector, it is not clear how he is going to lead a mammoth holding with 30,000 employees and about 90 subsidiary companies with assets worth $20 billion.
An officer who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition anonymity said, “Now the savings of 300,000 officers and NCOs are entrusted to Erdem. Keep in mind, the money of us military people is a bit valuable.”
Erdem, the young skipper of the OYAK GROUP, will now decide how to make use of all this money of TSK personnel.
Does Erdem, known to be close to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have a "secret agenda" to first downsize OYAK, then privatize and eradicate it? If there is such an agenda, how will the TSK react to it? Was Erdem appointed as the new CEO with the knowledge and approval of the TSK high command? Also, could Ulusoy be reassigned to an influential post in the state security and intelligence apparatus after his resignation from OYAK?
This surprising civilian takeover in TSK’s backyard is directly related to the changing nature of civilian-military links in Turkey. A prime minister and government that used to be the prime civilian interlocutor of the army is no more. Military-government relations have now turned into relations between the military and the presidential palace, making Erdogan the sole civilian counterpart of the military. How will this affect civilian-military relations in Turkey?
It may be too early to find all the answers, but we know from experience that not all civilian takeovers automatically mean democratization.
Now eyes are on Erdem and his performance. My suggestion is to watch OYAK and its new CEO's performance closely because it will tell us much about the nature of the civilian takeover of civilian-military relations in Turkey.
As a former soldier who had bought a house with his OYAK savings, allow me to remind you: “The money of Turkish soldiers is truly valuable.” This is why 300,000 soldiers will always be closely watching Erdem.
On four occasions in the past (1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997), the military has intervened to “correct” the political course of the country, and until the AKP came to power in 2002, the military was in a position to wield direct influence on the decision-making of elected governments.
After 2002, a series of institutional reforms removed the military from positions of power in the state establishment. The emergence of a conservative-religious elite in government, bureaucracy and business also deprived the military of many of its former civilian allies in these sectors, limiting the generals’ opportunities to influence politics by more indirect means. In addition, the large-scale legal processes implicating scores of military officers in alleged plots to overthrow the government, known under names such as Ergenekon and Balyoz (Sledgehammer), served to discredit the military institution in the eyes of many Turks. In 2012, which marks a low point for the Turkish military as far as national prestige is concerned, over half of its admirals and one in ten generals were behind bars.
However, not before long the tide started to turn for the military. In December 2013, the Turkish General Staff filed a complaint with the judiciary demanding a retrial of the defendants in the Balyoz case. The military made this move following a statement from Yalçın Akdoğan, then chief political adviser to the then Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that several military officers had been convicted on false charges. In June 2014, all the defendants in the Balyoz case were released pending a retrial, and in March 2015, the Turkish court system dismissed the whole case because the presented evidence was deemed “fabricated.” For the Turkish military, the dismissal of the Balyozcase represented a clear vindication after years of ordeals and public humiliation at the hands of state prosecutors.
Subsequently, a closer relationship between the military and the AKP government has developed. The deteriorating security environment in the country’s southeastern provinces has increased the importance of the armed forces in national security. The armed conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has restarted, and tensions with Russia have escalated. These developments have brought the military back as a central player in upholding both external and internal security.
The showdown between the AKP government and its erstwhile political allies in the Gülen movement – dating back the corruption cases of December 2013 – has also contributed to creating a community of interest between the government and the military. Both the AKP leadership and the generals wish to curb the influence of Gülen supporters in the state apparatus and within military ranks.
IMPLICATIONS: Yet the community of interest between the military and the government extends further than fighting common adversaries. The nationalistic turn of the AKP as well as President Erdoğan’s vision for a “new Turkey” equipped with a modern and strong army are both in harmony with the political and professional interests of the Turkish armed forces. The AKP government’s investment in the defense industry is welcomed by the generals who are eager to modernize the country’s armed forces.
It has been correctly noted that the changes in civilian-military relations that took place starting in 2002, when AKP came to power, were more about a de-militarization of politics than a civilianization of civilian-military ties. Institutional reforms have reduced the political influence of the armed forces significantly, and a forceful elected government has put some limitations on the autonomy of the military – most importantly in decisions on high-level promotions. However, the military has nonetheless retained substantial influence on political decision-making in the areas of security and defense, and it remains a relatively autonomous institution within the state apparatus when it comes to personnel management, force deployment and allocation of budgetary resources. In other words, the military has not been fully subjected to civilian control and oversight. This state of affairs has implications for how civilian-military relations are going to evolve.
The Turkish military does not harbor any known intentions to regain its former positions of power in the political decision-making process, or even less to carry out another intervention in order to unseat the elected government. On the contrary, both the previous and the current Chief of the General Staff have cooperated with the AKP government and they have a made a point of keeping the armed forces out of politics. The military leadership has continued to adhere to non-interventionist line of thinking that was inaugurated by the then Chief of the General Staff General Hilmi Özkök in the early 2000s. Metin Heper, a prominent Turkish political scientist, argues that from 2002 onward, the military leadership decided to put democracy first and to respect and trust the judgment of the people as expressed through democratic elections. The military would still make its views known on certain national security matters, but not act as national political overseers and intervene directly in the government decision-making process.
Arguably, the military has little motivation to become more involved in politics now. The military is still healing its wounds from the Ergenekon and Balyoz processes. Reportedly there is also huge resentment within the officers’ corps against the top brass for their perceived inaction during the legal processes. There are analysts of the military who claim that a new intervention in politics would find little internal support – especially among the new generation of officers who have embraced democracy and oppose the idea of military intervention as an accepted way to replace civilian governments.
What is clear is that given the new community of interests between the military and the government, the military leadership has no compelling reason to take any political action. But it is also clear that Turkish society has evolved in its view of the military’s role. Surveys on public opinion of the armed forces indicate that even if the military is still the most trusted institution in Turkey, a majority opposes military interventions in politics.
That being said, the military still claims certain political interests of its own. In the past, the armed forces saw the defense of secularism and territorial integrity (i.e. Turkey as a unitary state) as part of their internal security responsibilities. After over a decade of AKP rule, the military appears to have come to terms with a moderate form of political Islam. The unitary state principle, however, remains a red line for the military, as the then Chief of the General Staff General Necdet Özel made clear in a statement on August 30, 2014. General Özel told Turkish media that the General Staff had not been informed of the ongoing negotiations between the government and the PKK. In this context, Özel found it necessary to underline that: “the Turkish Armed Forces has certain red lines regarding these negotiations and will do what is necessary if these lines are not respected.” The statement showed that the military leadership is prepared to enter the political debate and voice its opinion when is core interests appear to be under threat.
The military has also retained considerable political influence in the security field, both through its strong presence in the National Security Council, the body where Turkey’s security policy is de facto made, and by means of its expertise in defense and military matters.
The institutional autonomy of the armed forces gives the military leadership a certain capacity to act independently of the elected government, and therefore potential leverage vis-à-vis civilian leaders. For example, Article 85 of the Armed Forces Internal Service Code gives the Turkish armed forces authority to order full battle preparedness on its own – without a prior political decision.
In a country that has experienced four military interventions over the last sixty years, such authority has obvious political implications. As a retired army general who asked not to be named told this author, ordering all forces to battle preparedness would be a logical step in preparation for a coup.
CONCLUSIONS: The Turkish military has no known intention to intervene in the political decision-making process. However, the military has retained a capacity to do so – both by means of its continued role in security policy making and its relative institutional autonomy.
The military remains dedicated to the notion of the unitary state. The military can be expected to become politically more assertive should it perceive that it’s ‘red-lines’ regarding the unitary state principle are being crossed. The extent of any military involvement in politics will therefore largely depend on how the conflict with the PKK develops, and how the Kurdish issue as a whole is handled by the government. However, it is highly unlikely that any such involvement will take the form of a direct intervention; it is more probable that the generals would seek to force the hand of the government, or pressure it not to make concessions to the Kurds, in case such a move were to be contemplated.
Unless the professional interests of the military come under threat, for example in the form of political purges in the officers’ corps similar to those that have already taken place in the police and the judiciary, the military leadership will most likely stick to its non-interventionist line in politics. So far, there have been no real attempts by the government to interfere in the internal affairs of the military. Should there be such an attempt, it will constitute the first real test of how much civil-military relations in Turkey have changed, and how much civilian control and oversight the military leadership is actually willing to accept.
Lars Haugom is a researcher with more than fifteen years of experience in teaching, analysis and directing analytical work on the Middle East for the Norwegian Armed Forces. He is currently guest researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies where he works on a Ph.D. project about civil-military relations in Turkey.
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