BERJUD1 @ THE FED FUND RATE NAEK, namanya juga jud1...
the fed fund rate CUMA B1K1N HEBOH DOANk, nyusah1n investor sejat1
terbukt1: SAAT DOLAR KUAT, pertumbuhan ekonomi amrik AMBLES, global juga TURUN
SETIDAKnya sejak 27 September 2015, gw dah LIAT GEJALA GLOBAL: DEFLASI, disinflasi, harga 2 kebutuhan RENDAH BANGET, gimana cara THE FED MO NAEKIN SUKU BUNGA
alasan utama (semoga menjadi pertimbangan the FED) tuk menunda kenaekan suku bunga the FFR k 2016
the fed fund rate CUMA B1K1N HEBOH DOANk, nyusah1n investor sejat1
terbukt1: SAAT DOLAR KUAT, pertumbuhan ekonomi amrik AMBLES, global juga TURUN
SETIDAKnya sejak 27 September 2015, gw dah LIAT GEJALA GLOBAL: DEFLASI, disinflasi, harga 2 kebutuhan RENDAH BANGET, gimana cara THE FED MO NAEKIN SUKU BUNGA
alasan utama (semoga menjadi pertimbangan the FED) tuk menunda kenaekan suku bunga the FFR k 2016
The global economy’s troubles are casting a long shadow over this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
In the past week, China posted its softest gross-domestic-product growth since the financial crisis, Japan reported a sharp decline in export growth and European forecasters cut their projections for eurozone inflation.
The developments, together with mixed U.S. economic data in recent months, increase the likelihood the Fed will keep interest rates near zero for the rest of 2015, according to analysts and traders. The slowdown and expansive central-bank policy overseas are likely to keep U.S. long-term interest rates down while at least initially fueling purchases of riskier assets such as stocks, corporate bonds and commodities, they said.
While Fed officials have repeatedly said an increase in the federal-funds rate this year isn’t off the table, many analysts believe U.S. policy makers are loath to raise rates too soon. By acting too aggressively, they warn, the central bank risks thwarting an already sluggish economic recovery or rekindling an emerging-markets selloff that rattled investor sentiment this past summer.
“The bond market is not buying the Fed’s talk of a rate hike before the end of the year,’’ said Jason Evans, co-founder of hedge fund NineAlpha Capital LP in New York. “The Fed is in a tough spot.”
Even if investors are wrong, their positioning means the Fed runs the risk of a bad reaction if it moves ahead, say money managers and traders.
Fed-funds futures, used by investors and traders to place bets on U.S. central-bank policy, on Friday showed an 8% likelihood of a rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting ending Wednesday, according to data from CME Group.
The odds Friday were measured at 37% for an increase at the Dec. 15-16 policy meeting, compared with 44% last month. The odds of that were seen above 50% earlier this year.
The net value of eurodollar futures contracts hit about $526 billion for the week ending Oct. 13, the highest level since May 2013, , according to Cheng Chen, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities in New York. Eurodollar futures are a popular tool for investors seeking to hedge against rising rates or to speculate on the path and timing of Fed policy. An investor buying a futures contract is betting that the fed-funds target rate will remain near zero for a longer period, which would boost the value of the contract.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at 2.081% Friday, down from this year’s high of 2.5% in June. The decline reflects soft economic growth, low inflation and expectations that rates won’t rise rapidly.
Expectations for those yields have continued to fall, reflecting slumping global growth.J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in January expected the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year at 2.4% but now projects 2.25%. Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to 2.3% from 2.85% in January, while Bank of America’s has come down to 2.35% from 2.75%. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has cut its forecast to 2.3% from 2.5%.
Bond yields in Europe and Japan were even lower. The 10-year German government bond yielded 0.510% late Friday and 10-year U.K. debt yielded 1.866%. Japan’s 10-year bond yielded 0.307%.
“U.S. Treasury bonds look like high-yielding assets” by comparison, said Nick Gartside, chief investment officer of fixed income for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, with $1.8 trillion in assets under management.
No one is ruling out a rate increase. The Fed could yet raise rates in December if U.S. data paint a brighter growth picture in the next two months, many investors said.
But U.S. readings have shown softness recently, raising concerns that global turmoil is weighing on the domestic economy. Employers added a modest 142,000 jobs in September, while job gains in July and August were revised down by a combined 59,000 positions, the Labor Department said this month. Unemployment was at a seven-year low of 5.1% in September, but that number has been driven lower in recent years as more people stopped looking for work or otherwise dropped out of the labor pool.
The caution signs have been clearer overseas. Forecasters polled by the European Central Bank cut their inflation outlook for the current year and the next two, the ECB said Friday.
China’s decision to cut interest rates has reinvigorated fears that capital will leave the country at an accelerating rate as economic growth slows, adding to pressure on the currency and ultimately forcing officials to further devalue the yuan against the dollar, after a surprise devaluation on Aug. 11. China, after spending years buying Treasurys to contain the appreciation of its currency, is now selling U.S. debt to prop up the yuan amid large capital outflows.Central banks abroad are positioning to juice their economies in response to the dimming economic picture: The ECB signaled Thursday the door is open for expanding its bond-buying program. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China on Friday cut interest rates for the sixth time in 12 months. The Bank of Japan will meet this Friday amid growing expectations that it, too, will loosen policy.
One key risk of any Fed rate increase is that it could revive a strong-dollar trade that rattled global markets earlier this year. A stronger dollar hurts U.S. exports and U.S. multinational companies’ earnings from overseas markets. It also weighs on prices of imported goods in the U.S., making it more difficult for the Fed to push up inflation to its 2% target in the medium term.
An unexpected Fed rate increase would raise the prospect that “the dollar will rally, emerging markets and commodities will be under pressure, and we are going to go through the turmoil in August again,” said Zhiwei Ren, managing director and portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management Inc., which has $20 billion in assets under management.
Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds, which oversees $214 billion, said a rate increase by the Fed in December is the biggest risk for his asset-allocation outlook.
“A rate hike in December serves no purpose in a deflationary world with low growth,’’ he said. “It would be a catastrophic mistake.”
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time.com: Without share repurchases, one measure of earnings growth would be flat this year.
Corporate profits might not be as good as they appear. The reason: stock buybacks.
For the uninitiated, stock buybacks are when companies use their cash to buy shares of their own company. Investors like buybacks because it returns cash to shareholders and potentially boosts the value of their stock by reducing the number outstanding shares in a company. But buybacks have been criticized recently. Corporations are spending more money than they have before on buybacks and that has many thinking the economy would be better off if firms used their cash for seemingly more productive things, like reinvesting in their businesses.
Another concern is that all of those stock purchases are making corporate profits look better than they are. Fewer shares make companies’ closely watched per-share earnings go up, or go up more, than actual profits. So, earlier this week, a group of analysts at Deutsche Bank, led by the firm’s strategist David Bianco, put out a report detailing just how much recent corporate profit growth is a result of the financial engineering of buybacks, versus actual growth.
The Deutsche Bank analysts say that pure earnings growth—that is, when you ignore buybacks and one-time charges and other adjustments—and the profits from companies in the S&P 500 are basically flat this year. Factor in buybacks and per-share earnings are magically up 1.4% this year, meaning that all of the per-share earnings growth in the first three quarters of the year came from buybacks.
At the same time, it’s not like this is all that different from recent earnings history. Since 2012, corporate per-share profits have increased by an average of 6.2% a year, of which about 1.4 percentage points have come from share buybacks. Same as this year. Deutsche’s analysts expect the companies in the S&P 500 to collectively have per-share earnings of just over $119 in 2015. Only about $1.66 of that is coming from buybacks.
And buybacks might not even be the biggest earnings distorter. Add one-time charges and the other items companies cite when they adjust their earnings things and corporate profits among the S&P 500 would be down more than 10% this year, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices analyst Howard Silverblatt.
Silverblatt thinks the Deutsche analysts didn’t go back far enough in their analysis. According to S&P data, on average, 20% of the companies in the S&P 500 have lowered their share count by 4% in each of the past seven quarters. (Quarter by quarter, it’s not always the same group of companies.) Silverblatt says that share reduction right now is much more prevalent than in other times when buybacks have peaked. As a result, he think buybacks are meaningfully boosting per-share earnings growth and, potentially, the price of a company’s stock.
Buybacks increase the value of a company’s shares. But the problem is that, unlike real earnings, buybacks, at least at the current level, may not be sustainable. An investigation published by Reuters this week found that companies in the S&P 500 are expected to spend more on buybacks and dividends than their total earnings. It will be the second year in a row that buybacks and dividends will outpace profits. Low interest rates have made borrowing to do buybacks possible. But that’s beginning to change.
Already, buybacks seem to be slipping. In the third quarter, buybacks contributed just 1.2 percentage points to per-share earnings within the S&P 500. Next year, Deutsche analysts expect the earnings bump from buybacks to be even smaller. Detractors have long argued that buybacks are bad for the economy because they divert cash from more productive uses. Investors might soon regret the buyback binge as well.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Here are selected highlights from the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting that ended Oct. 28.
On the likelihood of a December rate hike: “Most participants anticipated that, based on their assessment of the current economic situation and their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, these conditions could well be met by the time of the next meeting. Nonetheless, they emphasized that the actual decision would depend on the implications for the medium-term economic outlook of the data received over the upcoming intermeeting period.”
On why there was no hike in October: “Several participants indicated that, despite lessening concerns about the implications of recent global economic and financial developments for domestic economic activity and inflation, appreciable downside risks to the outlook remained. They were concerned about a potential loss of momentum in the economy and the associated possibility that inflation might fail to increase as expected. Such concerns might suggest that the initiation of the normalization process may not yet be warranted. They also noted uncertainty about whether economic growth was robust enough to withstand potential adverse shocks, given the limited ability of monetary policy to offset such shocks when the federal funds rate is near its effective lower bound, and concern that the beginning of policy normalization might be associated with an unwarranted tightening of financial conditions. They believed that in these circumstances, risk-management considerations called for a cautious approach.”
On why the Fed wanted to signal it was considering a rate hike in December:“Members emphasized that this change was intended to convey the sense that, while no decision had been made, it may well become appropriate to initiate the normalization process at the next meeting, provided that unanticipated shocks do not adversely affect the economic outlook and that incoming data support the expectation that labor market conditions will continue to improve and that inflation will return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Members saw the updated language as leaving policy options open for the next meeting. However, a couple of members expressed concern that this wording change could be misinterpreted as signaling too strongly the expectation that the target range for the federal funds rate would be increased at the Committee’s next meeting
On why the Fed needed to hike rates soon: “One concern was that such a delay, if the reasons were not well understood by market participants, could increase uncertainty in financial markets and unduly magnify the perceived importance of the beginning of the policy normalization process. Another concern mentioned was the increasing risk of a buildup of financial imbalances after a prolonged period of very low interest rates. It was also noted that a decision to defer policy firming could be interpreted as signaling lack of confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy or erode the Committee’s credibility.”
On what it would take for the December hike: “They indicated that they would be assessing a range of labor market indicators over the period ahead to confirm further improvement in the labor market. Members, however, expressed a range of views regarding the extent of further progress in labor market indicators they would need to see to judge it appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate in December.”
On the likely path of interest rates: “During their discussion of the likely path for the federal funds rate after the time of the first increase in the target range, participants generally agreed that it would probably be appropriate to remove policy accommodation gradually. Participants also indicated that the expected path of policy, rather than the timing of the initial increase, would be the more important influence on financial conditions and thus on the outlook for the economy and inflation, and they noted the importance of under-scoring this view at the time of liftoff.”
On the need for new tools if the economy took at turn for the worse: “Several participants indicated that, in the current low interest rate environment, it would be prudent for the Committee to consider options for providing additional monetary policy accommodation if the outlook for economic activity were to weaken to a degree that seemed likely to undermine continued progress in labor market conditions and impede the movement of inflation back to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. It was also noted that the Committee would need to reformulate its communications regarding the near-term outlook for monetary policy if the economic outlook weakened significantly.”
marketwatch: Since Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September 2008, the world’s central banks have injected more than $12 trillion under QE (Quantitative Easing) programs into financial markets. More than $26 trillion of government bonds are now trading at yields of below 1% with over $6 trillion currently yielding less than 0%.
These policies, according to policy makers, have been crucial to the “recovery.”
Stock market valuations have increased but remain reliant on low rates and abundant liquidity. The effect on the real economy is less clear. Policy makers argue that without these actions to support growth, employment and investment would have been weaker. It is a proposition that is, of course, impossible to test.
Whatever the initial benefits, low rates and unconventional monetary policy are increasingly counterproductive.
And now there is increasing confusion about future interest rate policy.
Could a Fed rate hike help the economy?
David Kelly of JPMorgan Funds makes the case that a slight bump in interest rates would set in motion a virtuous cycle of economic forces.
Markets expect that stronger U.S. employment numbers will drive a rate rise in December. Puzzlingly, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has also hinted that more QE or negative interest rates are also possible, should conditions dictate.
There is little agreement among Fed governors about the appropriate policy path for the U.S.. Meanwhile, other central banks are cutting rates.
In Europe, ECB President Mario Draghi has hinted that he will consider lowering rates further soon. European central banks are already operating negative deposit rate policies. The ECB is at minus 0.20%, Swiss policy rate is minus 0.75%; Sweden’s policy rate is minus 0.35%.
In October, Italy sold two-year debt at a negative yield for the first time. Investors are now paying to lend to a country which has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world.
The Bank of England has suggested that U.K. interest rates may not increase until 2016 or even 2017. The Bank of Japan has promised additional easing if necessary “without hesitation.” The People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, cut benchmark interest rates for the sixth time this year to a record low of 1.50% in a bid to support an economy that is forecast to grow at its slowest annual rate in 25 years.
Further interest-rate cuts are forecast in Australia, New Zealand and many emerging countries.
Central bankers argue that the case for increasing rates is limited. Despite record levels of monetary stimulus, growth remains lackluster. Forecasts of economic activity have seen regular downgrades over the past few years. Disinflation and deflationary pressures remain, with low commodity prices, especially in the energy sector, likely to continue.
Central bankers dismiss criticism that the policies are at best ineffective and at worst damaging.
Low rates have created problems for savers and retirees around the world. Pension funds are in trouble with rising levels of unfunded liabilities. Debt levels continue to rise from unsustainable to even more unsustainable. Low rates have distorted financial markets and created asset price bubbles in shares, property, and other investments.
In Japan, for example, interest rates have been around zero for almost a decade. The Bank of Japan has undertaken nine rounds of QE. The central bank’s balance sheet is approaching 70% of GDP. It owns a significant proportion of the outstanding stock of government bonds and equities. But the policies have not restored growth.
The effect of further rate cuts is also diminished by continuing trade and currency wars. Each individual cut is increasingly offset by competing reductions elsewhere in the world. Despite denials by policy makers, countries are using monetary policy to devalue currencies to gain competitiveness and capture a greater share of global demand. Individual nation’s actions are now redundant in a nugatory race to the bottom in interest rates and currency values.
Maintaining interest rates at low “emergency” levels for an extended period also makes it increasingly difficult to increase them to more normal levels. Increase in debt levels, made possible by lower rates, means the financial impact of higher rates is attenuated.
This is evident in the concern that a potential 0.25% increase in U.S. rates has created.
In the U.S., a one percentage-point boost in rates would increase U.S. government interest costs by around $180 billion from its present level of around $400 billion. Unless offset by increased economic activity, this would increase both the budget deficit and government debt levels. The normalization of rates to say 2.50%-3.00% may prove financially and economically destabilizing.
Low rates and QE have also reduced the political appetite for needed policy changes. Lower interest costs have sapped the willingness for fiscal reforms, debt reduction, and structural reforms.
Asset markets, especially equities, have rallied repeatedly on the continuation of low rates. But low rates reflect slower economic activity and economic weakness, rather than strength. This means, at some stage, a dramatic reassessment of asset prices is now inevitable, either as result of higher or lower rates.
Satyajit Das is a former banker and author whose latest book, The Age of Stagnation, will be published in February 2016.
WASHINGTON(Reuters) - US consumer prices increased in October after two straight months of declines as the cost of gasoline and a range of other goods rose, a tentative sign that the drag on inflation from a strong dollar and lower oil prices was starting to ease.
The modest rise in inflation last month could offer more support to expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. The Labor Department said on Tuesday its Consumer Price Index increased 0.2 per cent last month, reversing September's 0.2 per cent drop.
In the 12 months through October, the CPI advanced 0.2 per cent after being unchanged in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI rising 0.2 per cent in October and edging up 0.1 per cent from a year ago.
Signs of stabilisation in prices after a recent downward spiral is likely to be welcomed by Fed officials and give them some confidence that inflation will gradually move toward the central bank's 2 per cent target. Inflation has persistently run below target.
In the wake of a robust October employment report, the US central bank is expected to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero at its Dec 15-16 meeting.
There is hope tightening labour market conditions, characterised by a jobless rate now in a range that some Fed officials view as consistent with full employment will put upward pressure on wages and drive inflation toward its target.
The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, gained 0.2 per cent after a similar rise the prior month. Rents and medical costs accounted for much of the increase in the core CPI last month.
In the 12 months through October, the core CPI increased 1.9 per cent after rising by the same margin in September.
The Fed tracks the personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, which is running below the core CPI. The US dollar's 18 per cent rise against the currencies of the United States' main trading partners since June 2014 has weighed on prices of goods such as apparel and automobiles.
Last month, gasoline prices rose 0.4 per cent after falling 9 per cent in September. There were also increases in the cost of electricity.
Food prices edged up 0.1 per cent, the smallest gain since May, after rising 0.4 per cent the prior month. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes rose last month, with cereals and bakery products posting the largest increase since August 2011.
The rental index increased 0.3 per cent after rising 0.4 per cent in September. Medical care costs rose 0.7 per cent, the largest increase since April. Hospital costs increased 2 per cent. Airline fares rose 1.5 per cent, ending a string of three consecutive declines.
There were also increases in recreation costs, but apparel prices recorded their biggest decline since December.
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Washington, Nov 2, 2015 (AFP)
The US manufacturing sector, under pressure from the strong dollar that makes exports more costly, continued to grow in October but just barely, a private survey showed Monday.
The Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers index fell to 50.1 in October, the lowest reading since May 2013, from 50.2 in September.
That marked the fourth straight month of declines in PMI, bringing it almost to the 50 dividing line between growth and contraction.
Manufacturing has been a long-running weak spot in the US economy, which is dominated by the services sector.
The October PMI number was slightly better than the flat reading expected, and details of the report revealed some positive signs.
There was a pick-up in growth in new orders, with the index jumping 2.8 points to 52.9. Production also grew at a faster pace.
But employment contracted sharply and the backlog of orders continued to shrink. New export orders fell for the fifth month in a row.
"The turnaround in manufacturing will be gradual and take time as the appreciation in the US dollar and weakness in the global economy will continue to weigh on orders and production," said Ryan Sweet of Moody's Analytics.
Sweet noted that the October reading is below the 2015 year-to-date average of 52 and the 2014 average of 55.7.
"It's premature to declare manufacturing as stabilizing, but the economy doesn't need to lean heavily on it as a source of growth," he said, pointing out the sector accounts for only 12 percent of gross domestic product growth.
Respondents in the ISM survey indicated concern about the strong dollar. "Currency exchange is having a large impact on business results," said one manager in the chemical products sector.
Another worry was the continuing low price of oil, which has led energy companies to scale back production, pushing a slowdown in related industries.
"Energy market continues to struggle. Effects are beginning to bleed into other areas," said a respondent in the computer and electronic products industry.
LONDON - Ekonomi dunia membutuhkan dorongan pertumbuhan yang lebih segar, sebagai tanda bahwa pemulihan tengah melemah. Jika tidak, risiko kecelakaan keuangan baru semakin besar.
Dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (25/10/2015), situasi ini terlihat dari langkah Bank Rakyat China (PBoC) yang menurunkan tingkat suku bunga menjadi 4,35%, usai rilis pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal III yang melambat menjadi sebesar 6,9%.
Pengamat ekonomi memandang, angka resmi China tidak sebanding dengan kertas yang mereka tulis. Fakta bahwa suku bunga dipotong empat hari setelah data pertumbuhan dirilis menggarisbawahi situasi sebenarnya.
Tidak seperti bank sentral lainnya, yang memotong suku bunga pinjaman ke nol (bahkan beberapa kasus di bawah nol). Kabar buruknya adalah mungkin perlu pelonggaran lanjutan.
Gerard Lyons, seorang ahli dari Standard Chartered memandang bahwa cepat atau lambat China akan bergabung dengan paket bank sentral lainnya.
Sebelum PBoC memangkas suku bunga, Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) telah memberikan petunjuk bahwa pada Desember akan mengumumkan langkah-langkah baru dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan Zona Euro.
Presiden ECB, Mario Draghi memiliki pilihan memotong suku bunga deposito jauh di angka -0,2%, menghukum bank yang ingin memarkir uang di bank sentral. Lebih mungkin, meskipun ECB akan beralih ke versi pelonggaran kuantitatif dan meningkatkan program pembelian obligasi senilai 60 miliar euro.
Jepang juga siap memberikan rangsangan lebih pada akhir pekan ketika angka resmi cenderung menunjukkan ekonomi kembali ke resesi. Seperti ECB, tujuan utama dari kebijakan ini adalah untuk mengamankan nilai tukar yen. Tetapi jika yen dan euro melemah, sesuatu yang lain harus diperkuat, dan hasilnya dolar AS (USD) akan naik.
Sementara itu, ekonomi AS menunjukkan tanda-tanda perlambatan. Federal Reserve (Fed), bank sentral Amerika, kemungkinan masih akan menahan rencana kenaikkan suku bunga karena takut bahwa ini akan mendorong USD lebih tinggi.
Jadi apa masalahnya? China, Jepang dan Zona Euro atau semua pelonggaran kebijakan, di mana AS juga akan menunda kebijakan pengetatan.
Permasalahan pertama adalah sebagian negara dengan sengaja melemahkan nilai tukar mata uang mereka, negara-negara mencuri pertumbuhan satu sama lain. Bank sentral bersikeras bahwa ini tidak mewakili kembali ke devaluasi kompetitif dan proteksionisme tahun 1930-an, tetapi mulai terlihat seperti itu.
Kedua, stimulus moneter masih kurang efektif dari waktu ke waktu. Ada dua jalur utama, yaitu QE (quantitative easing). Salah satunya adalah melalui nilai tukar, tetapi kebijakan tersebut tidak bekerja jika semua negara secara bersamaan ingin mata uang mereka lebih murah (kecuali emerging market).
Saluran lainnya adalah melalui suku bunga jangka panjang, yang terkait dengan harga obligasi. Ketika bank sentral membeli obligasi, mereka mengurangi pasokan yang tersedia dan menaikkan harga. Suku bunga (yield) pada obligasi bergerak dalam arah yang berlawanan terhadap harga, sehingga harga yang lebih tinggi berarti pinjaman lebih murah untuk bisnis, rumah tangga dan pemerintah. Tapi ketika imbal hasil obligasi sudah di posisi terendah, sulit untuk mengusir mereka dari posisi itu bahkan dengan QE besar.
Diberitakan sebelumnya, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memberikan peringatan kepada para gubernur bank sentral, termasuk Federal Reserve AS (Fed) bahwa ekonomi dunia dalam risiko bahaya lain, kecuali mereka terus mendukung pertumbuhan dengan suku bunga rendah.
Lembaga pemberi pinjaman dunia berbasis di Washington itu menyebutkan, dalam komunike akhir bahwa ketidakpastian dan volatilitas pasar keuangan telah meningkat, dan prospek pertumbuhan jangka menengah melemah.
"Di banyak negara maju, risiko utama tetap penurunan pertumbuhan yang rendah. Dan, ini perlu didukung kebijakan moneter lanjutan yang akomodatif, dan stabilitas keuangan membaik," ujar Managing Director IMF Christine Lagarde dalam pertemuan akhir para Gubernur Bank Sentral G-30 di Lima, Peru, seperti dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (11/10/2015) lalu.
Dia mengatakan ada risiko spillovers ke pasar keuangan stabil dari bank sentral AS dan Inggris bila meningkatkan biaya kredit. IMF juga mendesak Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk mempertahankan rencana mereka merangsang ekonomi yang sakit dengan peningkatan pelonggaran moneter.
Tapi, Lagarde mendesak para pembuat kebijakan di Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk meningkatkan ekonomi mereka dengan ekspansi pinjaman bank dan bisnis melalui pelonggaran tambahan.
(dmd)
source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1056081/35/sinyal-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dunia-melemah-1445782474
Dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (25/10/2015), situasi ini terlihat dari langkah Bank Rakyat China (PBoC) yang menurunkan tingkat suku bunga menjadi 4,35%, usai rilis pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal III yang melambat menjadi sebesar 6,9%.
Pengamat ekonomi memandang, angka resmi China tidak sebanding dengan kertas yang mereka tulis. Fakta bahwa suku bunga dipotong empat hari setelah data pertumbuhan dirilis menggarisbawahi situasi sebenarnya.
Tidak seperti bank sentral lainnya, yang memotong suku bunga pinjaman ke nol (bahkan beberapa kasus di bawah nol). Kabar buruknya adalah mungkin perlu pelonggaran lanjutan.
Gerard Lyons, seorang ahli dari Standard Chartered memandang bahwa cepat atau lambat China akan bergabung dengan paket bank sentral lainnya.
Sebelum PBoC memangkas suku bunga, Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) telah memberikan petunjuk bahwa pada Desember akan mengumumkan langkah-langkah baru dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan Zona Euro.
Presiden ECB, Mario Draghi memiliki pilihan memotong suku bunga deposito jauh di angka -0,2%, menghukum bank yang ingin memarkir uang di bank sentral. Lebih mungkin, meskipun ECB akan beralih ke versi pelonggaran kuantitatif dan meningkatkan program pembelian obligasi senilai 60 miliar euro.
Jepang juga siap memberikan rangsangan lebih pada akhir pekan ketika angka resmi cenderung menunjukkan ekonomi kembali ke resesi. Seperti ECB, tujuan utama dari kebijakan ini adalah untuk mengamankan nilai tukar yen. Tetapi jika yen dan euro melemah, sesuatu yang lain harus diperkuat, dan hasilnya dolar AS (USD) akan naik.
Sementara itu, ekonomi AS menunjukkan tanda-tanda perlambatan. Federal Reserve (Fed), bank sentral Amerika, kemungkinan masih akan menahan rencana kenaikkan suku bunga karena takut bahwa ini akan mendorong USD lebih tinggi.
Jadi apa masalahnya? China, Jepang dan Zona Euro atau semua pelonggaran kebijakan, di mana AS juga akan menunda kebijakan pengetatan.
Permasalahan pertama adalah sebagian negara dengan sengaja melemahkan nilai tukar mata uang mereka, negara-negara mencuri pertumbuhan satu sama lain. Bank sentral bersikeras bahwa ini tidak mewakili kembali ke devaluasi kompetitif dan proteksionisme tahun 1930-an, tetapi mulai terlihat seperti itu.
Kedua, stimulus moneter masih kurang efektif dari waktu ke waktu. Ada dua jalur utama, yaitu QE (quantitative easing). Salah satunya adalah melalui nilai tukar, tetapi kebijakan tersebut tidak bekerja jika semua negara secara bersamaan ingin mata uang mereka lebih murah (kecuali emerging market).
Saluran lainnya adalah melalui suku bunga jangka panjang, yang terkait dengan harga obligasi. Ketika bank sentral membeli obligasi, mereka mengurangi pasokan yang tersedia dan menaikkan harga. Suku bunga (yield) pada obligasi bergerak dalam arah yang berlawanan terhadap harga, sehingga harga yang lebih tinggi berarti pinjaman lebih murah untuk bisnis, rumah tangga dan pemerintah. Tapi ketika imbal hasil obligasi sudah di posisi terendah, sulit untuk mengusir mereka dari posisi itu bahkan dengan QE besar.
Diberitakan sebelumnya, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memberikan peringatan kepada para gubernur bank sentral, termasuk Federal Reserve AS (Fed) bahwa ekonomi dunia dalam risiko bahaya lain, kecuali mereka terus mendukung pertumbuhan dengan suku bunga rendah.
Lembaga pemberi pinjaman dunia berbasis di Washington itu menyebutkan, dalam komunike akhir bahwa ketidakpastian dan volatilitas pasar keuangan telah meningkat, dan prospek pertumbuhan jangka menengah melemah.
"Di banyak negara maju, risiko utama tetap penurunan pertumbuhan yang rendah. Dan, ini perlu didukung kebijakan moneter lanjutan yang akomodatif, dan stabilitas keuangan membaik," ujar Managing Director IMF Christine Lagarde dalam pertemuan akhir para Gubernur Bank Sentral G-30 di Lima, Peru, seperti dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (11/10/2015) lalu.
Dia mengatakan ada risiko spillovers ke pasar keuangan stabil dari bank sentral AS dan Inggris bila meningkatkan biaya kredit. IMF juga mendesak Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk mempertahankan rencana mereka merangsang ekonomi yang sakit dengan peningkatan pelonggaran moneter.
Tapi, Lagarde mendesak para pembuat kebijakan di Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk meningkatkan ekonomi mereka dengan ekspansi pinjaman bank dan bisnis melalui pelonggaran tambahan.
(dmd)
source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1056081/35/sinyal-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dunia-melemah-1445782474
LONDON
- Ekonomi dunia membutuhkan dorongan pertumbuhan yang lebih segar,
sebagai tanda bahwa pemulihan tengah melemah. Jika tidak, risiko
kecelakaan keuangan baru semakin besar.
Dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (25/10/2015), situasi ini terlihat dari langkah Bank Rakyat China (PBoC) yang menurunkan tingkat suku bunga menjadi 4,35%, usai rilis pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal III yang melambat menjadi sebesar 6,9%.
Pengamat ekonomi memandang, angka resmi China tidak sebanding dengan kertas yang mereka tulis. Fakta bahwa suku bunga dipotong empat hari setelah data pertumbuhan dirilis menggarisbawahi situasi sebenarnya.
Tidak seperti bank sentral lainnya, yang memotong suku bunga pinjaman ke nol (bahkan beberapa kasus di bawah nol). Kabar buruknya adalah mungkin perlu pelonggaran lanjutan.
Gerard Lyons, seorang ahli dari Standard Chartered memandang bahwa cepat atau lambat China akan bergabung dengan paket bank sentral lainnya.
Sebelum PBoC memangkas suku bunga, Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) telah memberikan petunjuk bahwa pada Desember akan mengumumkan langkah-langkah baru dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan Zona Euro.
Presiden ECB, Mario Draghi memiliki pilihan memotong suku bunga deposito jauh di angka -0,2%, menghukum bank yang ingin memarkir uang di bank sentral. Lebih mungkin, meskipun ECB akan beralih ke versi pelonggaran kuantitatif dan meningkatkan program pembelian obligasi senilai 60 miliar euro.
Jepang juga siap memberikan rangsangan lebih pada akhir pekan ketika angka resmi cenderung menunjukkan ekonomi kembali ke resesi. Seperti ECB, tujuan utama dari kebijakan ini adalah untuk mengamankan nilai tukar yen. Tetapi jika yen dan euro melemah, sesuatu yang lain harus diperkuat, dan hasilnya dolar AS (USD) akan naik.
Sementara itu, ekonomi AS menunjukkan tanda-tanda perlambatan. Federal Reserve (Fed), bank sentral Amerika, kemungkinan masih akan menahan rencana kenaikkan suku bunga karena takut bahwa ini akan mendorong USD lebih tinggi.
Jadi apa masalahnya? China, Jepang dan Zona Euro atau semua pelonggaran kebijakan, di mana AS juga akan menunda kebijakan pengetatan.
Permasalahan pertama adalah sebagian negara dengan sengaja melemahkan nilai tukar mata uang mereka, negara-negara mencuri pertumbuhan satu sama lain. Bank sentral bersikeras bahwa ini tidak mewakili kembali ke devaluasi kompetitif dan proteksionisme tahun 1930-an, tetapi mulai terlihat seperti itu.
Kedua, stimulus moneter masih kurang efektif dari waktu ke waktu. Ada dua jalur utama, yaitu QE (quantitative easing). Salah satunya adalah melalui nilai tukar, tetapi kebijakan tersebut tidak bekerja jika semua negara secara bersamaan ingin mata uang mereka lebih murah (kecuali emerging market).
Saluran lainnya adalah melalui suku bunga jangka panjang, yang terkait dengan harga obligasi. Ketika bank sentral membeli obligasi, mereka mengurangi pasokan yang tersedia dan menaikkan harga. Suku bunga (yield) pada obligasi bergerak dalam arah yang berlawanan terhadap harga, sehingga harga yang lebih tinggi berarti pinjaman lebih murah untuk bisnis, rumah tangga dan pemerintah. Tapi ketika imbal hasil obligasi sudah di posisi terendah, sulit untuk mengusir mereka dari posisi itu bahkan dengan QE besar.
Diberitakan sebelumnya, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memberikan peringatan kepada para gubernur bank sentral, termasuk Federal Reserve AS (Fed) bahwa ekonomi dunia dalam risiko bahaya lain, kecuali mereka terus mendukung pertumbuhan dengan suku bunga rendah.
Lembaga pemberi pinjaman dunia berbasis di Washington itu menyebutkan, dalam komunike akhir bahwa ketidakpastian dan volatilitas pasar keuangan telah meningkat, dan prospek pertumbuhan jangka menengah melemah.
"Di banyak negara maju, risiko utama tetap penurunan pertumbuhan yang rendah. Dan, ini perlu didukung kebijakan moneter lanjutan yang akomodatif, dan stabilitas keuangan membaik," ujar Managing Director IMF Christine Lagarde dalam pertemuan akhir para Gubernur Bank Sentral G-30 di Lima, Peru, seperti dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (11/10/2015) lalu.
Dia mengatakan ada risiko spillovers ke pasar keuangan stabil dari bank sentral AS dan Inggris bila meningkatkan biaya kredit. IMF juga mendesak Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk mempertahankan rencana mereka merangsang ekonomi yang sakit dengan peningkatan pelonggaran moneter.
Tapi, Lagarde mendesak para pembuat kebijakan di Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk meningkatkan ekonomi mereka dengan ekspansi pinjaman bank dan bisnis melalui pelonggaran tambahan.
(dmd)
source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1056081/35/sinyal-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dunia-melemah-1445782474LONDON - Ekonomi dunia membutuhkan dorongan pertumbuhan yang lebih segar, sebagai tanda bahwa pemulihan tengah melemah. Jika tidak, risiko kecelakaan keuangan baru semakin besar.
Dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (25/10/2015), situasi ini terlihat dari langkah Bank Rakyat China (PBoC) yang menurunkan tingkat suku bunga menjadi 4,35%, usai rilis pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal III yang melambat menjadi sebesar 6,9%.
Pengamat ekonomi memandang, angka resmi China tidak sebanding dengan kertas yang mereka tulis. Fakta bahwa suku bunga dipotong empat hari setelah data pertumbuhan dirilis menggarisbawahi situasi sebenarnya.
Tidak seperti bank sentral lainnya, yang memotong suku bunga pinjaman ke nol (bahkan beberapa kasus di bawah nol). Kabar buruknya adalah mungkin perlu pelonggaran lanjutan.
Gerard Lyons, seorang ahli dari Standard Chartered memandang bahwa cepat atau lambat China akan bergabung dengan paket bank sentral lainnya.
Sebelum PBoC memangkas suku bunga, Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) telah memberikan petunjuk bahwa pada Desember akan mengumumkan langkah-langkah baru dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan Zona Euro.
Presiden ECB, Mario Draghi memiliki pilihan memotong suku bunga deposito jauh di angka -0,2%, menghukum bank yang ingin memarkir uang di bank sentral. Lebih mungkin, meskipun ECB akan beralih ke versi pelonggaran kuantitatif dan meningkatkan program pembelian obligasi senilai 60 miliar euro.
Jepang juga siap memberikan rangsangan lebih pada akhir pekan ketika angka resmi cenderung menunjukkan ekonomi kembali ke resesi. Seperti ECB, tujuan utama dari kebijakan ini adalah untuk mengamankan nilai tukar yen. Tetapi jika yen dan euro melemah, sesuatu yang lain harus diperkuat, dan hasilnya dolar AS (USD) akan naik.
Sementara itu, ekonomi AS menunjukkan tanda-tanda perlambatan. Federal Reserve (Fed), bank sentral Amerika, kemungkinan masih akan menahan rencana kenaikkan suku bunga karena takut bahwa ini akan mendorong USD lebih tinggi.
Jadi apa masalahnya? China, Jepang dan Zona Euro atau semua pelonggaran kebijakan, di mana AS juga akan menunda kebijakan pengetatan.
Permasalahan pertama adalah sebagian negara dengan sengaja melemahkan nilai tukar mata uang mereka, negara-negara mencuri pertumbuhan satu sama lain. Bank sentral bersikeras bahwa ini tidak mewakili kembali ke devaluasi kompetitif dan proteksionisme tahun 1930-an, tetapi mulai terlihat seperti itu.
Kedua, stimulus moneter masih kurang efektif dari waktu ke waktu. Ada dua jalur utama, yaitu QE (quantitative easing). Salah satunya adalah melalui nilai tukar, tetapi kebijakan tersebut tidak bekerja jika semua negara secara bersamaan ingin mata uang mereka lebih murah (kecuali emerging market).
Saluran lainnya adalah melalui suku bunga jangka panjang, yang terkait dengan harga obligasi. Ketika bank sentral membeli obligasi, mereka mengurangi pasokan yang tersedia dan menaikkan harga. Suku bunga (yield) pada obligasi bergerak dalam arah yang berlawanan terhadap harga, sehingga harga yang lebih tinggi berarti pinjaman lebih murah untuk bisnis, rumah tangga dan pemerintah. Tapi ketika imbal hasil obligasi sudah di posisi terendah, sulit untuk mengusir mereka dari posisi itu bahkan dengan QE besar.
Diberitakan sebelumnya, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memberikan peringatan kepada para gubernur bank sentral, termasuk Federal Reserve AS (Fed) bahwa ekonomi dunia dalam risiko bahaya lain, kecuali mereka terus mendukung pertumbuhan dengan suku bunga rendah.
Lembaga pemberi pinjaman dunia berbasis di Washington itu menyebutkan, dalam komunike akhir bahwa ketidakpastian dan volatilitas pasar keuangan telah meningkat, dan prospek pertumbuhan jangka menengah melemah.
"Di banyak negara maju, risiko utama tetap penurunan pertumbuhan yang rendah. Dan, ini perlu didukung kebijakan moneter lanjutan yang akomodatif, dan stabilitas keuangan membaik," ujar Managing Director IMF Christine Lagarde dalam pertemuan akhir para Gubernur Bank Sentral G-30 di Lima, Peru, seperti dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (11/10/2015) lalu.
Dia mengatakan ada risiko spillovers ke pasar keuangan stabil dari bank sentral AS dan Inggris bila meningkatkan biaya kredit. IMF juga mendesak Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk mempertahankan rencana mereka merangsang ekonomi yang sakit dengan peningkatan pelonggaran moneter.
Tapi, Lagarde mendesak para pembuat kebijakan di Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk meningkatkan ekonomi mereka dengan ekspansi pinjaman bank dan bisnis melalui pelonggaran tambahan.
(dmd)
source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1056081/35/sinyal-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dunia-melemah-1445782474
Dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (25/10/2015), situasi ini terlihat dari langkah Bank Rakyat China (PBoC) yang menurunkan tingkat suku bunga menjadi 4,35%, usai rilis pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal III yang melambat menjadi sebesar 6,9%.
Pengamat ekonomi memandang, angka resmi China tidak sebanding dengan kertas yang mereka tulis. Fakta bahwa suku bunga dipotong empat hari setelah data pertumbuhan dirilis menggarisbawahi situasi sebenarnya.
Tidak seperti bank sentral lainnya, yang memotong suku bunga pinjaman ke nol (bahkan beberapa kasus di bawah nol). Kabar buruknya adalah mungkin perlu pelonggaran lanjutan.
Gerard Lyons, seorang ahli dari Standard Chartered memandang bahwa cepat atau lambat China akan bergabung dengan paket bank sentral lainnya.
Sebelum PBoC memangkas suku bunga, Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) telah memberikan petunjuk bahwa pada Desember akan mengumumkan langkah-langkah baru dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan Zona Euro.
Presiden ECB, Mario Draghi memiliki pilihan memotong suku bunga deposito jauh di angka -0,2%, menghukum bank yang ingin memarkir uang di bank sentral. Lebih mungkin, meskipun ECB akan beralih ke versi pelonggaran kuantitatif dan meningkatkan program pembelian obligasi senilai 60 miliar euro.
Jepang juga siap memberikan rangsangan lebih pada akhir pekan ketika angka resmi cenderung menunjukkan ekonomi kembali ke resesi. Seperti ECB, tujuan utama dari kebijakan ini adalah untuk mengamankan nilai tukar yen. Tetapi jika yen dan euro melemah, sesuatu yang lain harus diperkuat, dan hasilnya dolar AS (USD) akan naik.
Sementara itu, ekonomi AS menunjukkan tanda-tanda perlambatan. Federal Reserve (Fed), bank sentral Amerika, kemungkinan masih akan menahan rencana kenaikkan suku bunga karena takut bahwa ini akan mendorong USD lebih tinggi.
Jadi apa masalahnya? China, Jepang dan Zona Euro atau semua pelonggaran kebijakan, di mana AS juga akan menunda kebijakan pengetatan.
Permasalahan pertama adalah sebagian negara dengan sengaja melemahkan nilai tukar mata uang mereka, negara-negara mencuri pertumbuhan satu sama lain. Bank sentral bersikeras bahwa ini tidak mewakili kembali ke devaluasi kompetitif dan proteksionisme tahun 1930-an, tetapi mulai terlihat seperti itu.
Kedua, stimulus moneter masih kurang efektif dari waktu ke waktu. Ada dua jalur utama, yaitu QE (quantitative easing). Salah satunya adalah melalui nilai tukar, tetapi kebijakan tersebut tidak bekerja jika semua negara secara bersamaan ingin mata uang mereka lebih murah (kecuali emerging market).
Saluran lainnya adalah melalui suku bunga jangka panjang, yang terkait dengan harga obligasi. Ketika bank sentral membeli obligasi, mereka mengurangi pasokan yang tersedia dan menaikkan harga. Suku bunga (yield) pada obligasi bergerak dalam arah yang berlawanan terhadap harga, sehingga harga yang lebih tinggi berarti pinjaman lebih murah untuk bisnis, rumah tangga dan pemerintah. Tapi ketika imbal hasil obligasi sudah di posisi terendah, sulit untuk mengusir mereka dari posisi itu bahkan dengan QE besar.
Diberitakan sebelumnya, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memberikan peringatan kepada para gubernur bank sentral, termasuk Federal Reserve AS (Fed) bahwa ekonomi dunia dalam risiko bahaya lain, kecuali mereka terus mendukung pertumbuhan dengan suku bunga rendah.
Lembaga pemberi pinjaman dunia berbasis di Washington itu menyebutkan, dalam komunike akhir bahwa ketidakpastian dan volatilitas pasar keuangan telah meningkat, dan prospek pertumbuhan jangka menengah melemah.
"Di banyak negara maju, risiko utama tetap penurunan pertumbuhan yang rendah. Dan, ini perlu didukung kebijakan moneter lanjutan yang akomodatif, dan stabilitas keuangan membaik," ujar Managing Director IMF Christine Lagarde dalam pertemuan akhir para Gubernur Bank Sentral G-30 di Lima, Peru, seperti dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (11/10/2015) lalu.
Dia mengatakan ada risiko spillovers ke pasar keuangan stabil dari bank sentral AS dan Inggris bila meningkatkan biaya kredit. IMF juga mendesak Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk mempertahankan rencana mereka merangsang ekonomi yang sakit dengan peningkatan pelonggaran moneter.
Tapi, Lagarde mendesak para pembuat kebijakan di Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk meningkatkan ekonomi mereka dengan ekspansi pinjaman bank dan bisnis melalui pelonggaran tambahan.
(dmd)
source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1056081/35/sinyal-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dunia-melemah-1445782474LONDON - Ekonomi dunia membutuhkan dorongan pertumbuhan yang lebih segar, sebagai tanda bahwa pemulihan tengah melemah. Jika tidak, risiko kecelakaan keuangan baru semakin besar.
Dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (25/10/2015), situasi ini terlihat dari langkah Bank Rakyat China (PBoC) yang menurunkan tingkat suku bunga menjadi 4,35%, usai rilis pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal III yang melambat menjadi sebesar 6,9%.
Pengamat ekonomi memandang, angka resmi China tidak sebanding dengan kertas yang mereka tulis. Fakta bahwa suku bunga dipotong empat hari setelah data pertumbuhan dirilis menggarisbawahi situasi sebenarnya.
Tidak seperti bank sentral lainnya, yang memotong suku bunga pinjaman ke nol (bahkan beberapa kasus di bawah nol). Kabar buruknya adalah mungkin perlu pelonggaran lanjutan.
Gerard Lyons, seorang ahli dari Standard Chartered memandang bahwa cepat atau lambat China akan bergabung dengan paket bank sentral lainnya.
Sebelum PBoC memangkas suku bunga, Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) telah memberikan petunjuk bahwa pada Desember akan mengumumkan langkah-langkah baru dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan Zona Euro.
Presiden ECB, Mario Draghi memiliki pilihan memotong suku bunga deposito jauh di angka -0,2%, menghukum bank yang ingin memarkir uang di bank sentral. Lebih mungkin, meskipun ECB akan beralih ke versi pelonggaran kuantitatif dan meningkatkan program pembelian obligasi senilai 60 miliar euro.
Jepang juga siap memberikan rangsangan lebih pada akhir pekan ketika angka resmi cenderung menunjukkan ekonomi kembali ke resesi. Seperti ECB, tujuan utama dari kebijakan ini adalah untuk mengamankan nilai tukar yen. Tetapi jika yen dan euro melemah, sesuatu yang lain harus diperkuat, dan hasilnya dolar AS (USD) akan naik.
Sementara itu, ekonomi AS menunjukkan tanda-tanda perlambatan. Federal Reserve (Fed), bank sentral Amerika, kemungkinan masih akan menahan rencana kenaikkan suku bunga karena takut bahwa ini akan mendorong USD lebih tinggi.
Jadi apa masalahnya? China, Jepang dan Zona Euro atau semua pelonggaran kebijakan, di mana AS juga akan menunda kebijakan pengetatan.
Permasalahan pertama adalah sebagian negara dengan sengaja melemahkan nilai tukar mata uang mereka, negara-negara mencuri pertumbuhan satu sama lain. Bank sentral bersikeras bahwa ini tidak mewakili kembali ke devaluasi kompetitif dan proteksionisme tahun 1930-an, tetapi mulai terlihat seperti itu.
Kedua, stimulus moneter masih kurang efektif dari waktu ke waktu. Ada dua jalur utama, yaitu QE (quantitative easing). Salah satunya adalah melalui nilai tukar, tetapi kebijakan tersebut tidak bekerja jika semua negara secara bersamaan ingin mata uang mereka lebih murah (kecuali emerging market).
Saluran lainnya adalah melalui suku bunga jangka panjang, yang terkait dengan harga obligasi. Ketika bank sentral membeli obligasi, mereka mengurangi pasokan yang tersedia dan menaikkan harga. Suku bunga (yield) pada obligasi bergerak dalam arah yang berlawanan terhadap harga, sehingga harga yang lebih tinggi berarti pinjaman lebih murah untuk bisnis, rumah tangga dan pemerintah. Tapi ketika imbal hasil obligasi sudah di posisi terendah, sulit untuk mengusir mereka dari posisi itu bahkan dengan QE besar.
Diberitakan sebelumnya, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memberikan peringatan kepada para gubernur bank sentral, termasuk Federal Reserve AS (Fed) bahwa ekonomi dunia dalam risiko bahaya lain, kecuali mereka terus mendukung pertumbuhan dengan suku bunga rendah.
Lembaga pemberi pinjaman dunia berbasis di Washington itu menyebutkan, dalam komunike akhir bahwa ketidakpastian dan volatilitas pasar keuangan telah meningkat, dan prospek pertumbuhan jangka menengah melemah.
"Di banyak negara maju, risiko utama tetap penurunan pertumbuhan yang rendah. Dan, ini perlu didukung kebijakan moneter lanjutan yang akomodatif, dan stabilitas keuangan membaik," ujar Managing Director IMF Christine Lagarde dalam pertemuan akhir para Gubernur Bank Sentral G-30 di Lima, Peru, seperti dilansir dari The Guardian, Minggu (11/10/2015) lalu.
Dia mengatakan ada risiko spillovers ke pasar keuangan stabil dari bank sentral AS dan Inggris bila meningkatkan biaya kredit. IMF juga mendesak Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk mempertahankan rencana mereka merangsang ekonomi yang sakit dengan peningkatan pelonggaran moneter.
Tapi, Lagarde mendesak para pembuat kebijakan di Jepang dan Zona Euro untuk meningkatkan ekonomi mereka dengan ekspansi pinjaman bank dan bisnis melalui pelonggaran tambahan.
(dmd)
source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1056081/35/sinyal-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dunia-melemah-1445782474
New York, Oct 30, 2015 (AFP)
Disappointing data on US income and consumption growth in September helped push the dollar a bit lower Friday, as it bolstered the argument against a December Federal Reserve rate increase.
The dollar slipped to $1.1003 against the Euro and to 120.67 yen. The British pound also pushed up against the greenback, to $1.5429.
Both consumer income and spending rose only by 0.1 percent in the United States last month, less than expected and the slowest rate since January.
While the sluggish pace could be temporary, Jay Morelock of FTN Financial said both income and consumer spending could prove to be weak points in economic growth in the fourth quarter.
"Lackluster growth in both prices and consumption are indicative of a steady economy, not one that needs slowing," he said.
"It will be difficult for the Fed to justify rate hikes at a time when income, consumption, and inflation growth are trending lower, leaving a December rate hike less likely than prior to this release."
<pre> 2100 GMT Friday Thursday
EUR/USD 1.1003 1.0979
EUR/JPY 132.77 132.96
EUR/CHF 1.0866 1.0865
EUR/GBP 0.7131 0.7171
USD/JPY 120.67 121.10
USD/CHF 0.9876 0.9896
GBP/USD 1.5429 1.5310
</pre>
marketwatch: To paraphrase Jim Mora: Rate hike? Rate hike? You kidding me? Rate hike?
The latest report to show weakness came from the housing sector, where pending home sales fell for a second straight month in September.
Even if the monthly report on pending home sales isn’t a top-tier indicator, this is a bit worrying. And it comes on the heels of a report showing new-home sales tumbled 11.5% last month.
Housing has been one of the hottest performers in the economy. In the third-quarter GDP report released Thursday, residential investment grew at a blistering 6.1% pace.
Furthermore, housing — along with automobiles — has been the big beneficiary of the low-interest-rate environment. It is true that banks and other lenders have been reluctant to pass on those rates. But credit standards have been easing, and the low interest rates have helped those in a position to buy a home to do so.
In addition to persistently low inventories, real-estate agents have been detecting a bit of a wait-and-see attitude, the National Association of Realtors reported. Hesitation is rarely a good sign for the economy.
If housing gives way, there’s not too much to pick up the slack.
Manufacturing has been struggling for some time, hurt by the strong dollar and the weakness in oil prices that has hammered a once rapidly growing energy sector. Core capital-goods orders, which strip out the military and the airline industry, declined 0.3% in September, according to data released this week.
Even the service sector has been wobbly. One measure of that sector just fell to anine-month low.
The Federal Reserve surprised markets on Wednesday by saying the central bank will consider a rate hike in December. The GDP report, taken at face value, showed an economy growing at a pretty solid pace, with inventories the main drag.
But the Fed needs to set rates for where the economy is going, not where it’s been. And it’s not looking like the economy needs any application of the brakes anytime soon.
GDP: Economy cools in third quarter
Last Updated Oct 29, 2015 9:32 AM EDT
The U.S. economy expanded at a reduced rate in the third quarter as businesses cut back on restocking warehouses to reduce swollen inventories. The drag from inventory, however, is unlikely to persist, and economists anticipate growth will pick up in the fourth quarter.
"Demand from U.S. consumers, businesses and governments remains solid, as does demand for U.S.-produced goods and services, both domestically and from abroad," Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services, wrote in a research note.
Gross domestic product increased at a 1.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. Taking inventories out of the equation, the economy grew 3 percent, after growing 3.9 percent the prior three months.
"The basic story continues to be one of modest growth with very little inflation," wrote Dean Baker, an economist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a nonpartisan think tank.
Companies collected $56.8 billion worth of inventory in the third quarter, the smallest since early last year and markedly off from $113.5 billion in the second quarter.
"After large builds in Q1 and Q2, the change in inventories was the slowest since Q1 '14 and is the main reason for the softness in growth," noted Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at the Lindsey Group.
The U.S. economy increased at an average 2.3 percent in the first two quarters of 2015 as the second-quarter surge made up the ground lost in the first quarter, when growth was curtailed by winter weather, a port strike on the West Coast and cutbacks in the oil sector.
Thursday's estimate is the first of three for the quarter -- the government will update its read on growth next month and in December.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said the economy was growing at a "moderate" pace and put a December rate hike in play.
Separately, data from the Labor Department on Thursday had the number of those filing for jobless benefits holding near four-decade lows, with claims rising by 1,000 to 260,000 last week.
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2015 (Advance Estimate)
Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2015 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.9 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 2 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 4). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 24, 2015. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Real GDP increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter, after increasing 3.9 percent in the second. The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, in PCE, in state and local government spending, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports. _____ FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA's Web site. _____ Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the second. Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 2.7 percent, or $121.1 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $18,034.8 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.1 percent, or $264.4 billion. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $171.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $139.5 billion in the second. The acceleration in personal income primarily reflected an acceleration in wages and salaries and an upturn in farm proprietors’ income that were partly offset by a deceleration in personal interest income. Personal current taxes increased $15.8 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $27.3 billion in the second. Disposable personal income increased $155.9 billion, or 4.8 percent, in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $112.2 billion, or 3.4 percent, in the second. Real disposable personal income increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent. Personal outlays increased $136.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $182.3 billion in the second. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $636.7 billion in the third quarter, compared with $617.5 billion in the second. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.6 percent in the second. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp. _____ BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components." _____ BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
(mrt)JAKARTA - Gubernur Bank Indonesia, Agus Martowardojo menegaskan kenaikan suku bunga fed Amerika Serikat (AS) akan terjadi pada 2015. Kenaikan diyakini terjadi karena dalam pembahasan rapat FOMC keinginan menaikan suku bunga menjadi poin pembahasan."Pembicaraan kenaikan bunga ditegaskan. Meski akan dilakukan dalam pertemuan yang akan datang penetapannya,"ujar Agus, disela pemberhentian rapat, di Ruang Banggar DPR, Jakarta, Jumat (30/10/2015).Dengan demikian, menurut Agus kesimpangsiuran Fed, bukan lagi menjadi isu. Tapi yang perlu diperhatikan adalah tentang kemungkinan penyesuaian Fed Fund Red di tahun ini dan seterusnya."Itu perlu diwaspadai, setelah naik tentu di tahun berikutnya akan ada penyesuaian yang konon bisa sampai 1 persen tiap tahun, di mana akan pengaruhi portofolio tiap negara terutama bagi negara-negara berkembang,"tuturnya.Seperti diketahui, pada 2009 sampai 2015, USD3,5 triliun sudah didorong ke pasar dan bagian dana cukup besar yang ada di negara berkembang kemungkinan akan pengaruhi keseimbangan sistem keuangan tiap negara.Artinya, kata Agus, meski kondisi ekonomi saat ini menunjukkan perbaikan, bukan berarti negara-negara berkembang kondisi ekonominya membaik ketika adanya kepastian Fed."Jadi untuk Indonesia meski adanya perbiakan kondisi yang baik. Komitmen struktural perlu ditunjukkan oleh pemerintah guna menghadapi kondisi kelanjutan perkembangan Fed tentunya," tuturnya.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Bank of Japan memutuskan untuk tidak mengubah kebijakan moneter.Gubernur BoJ Haruhiko Kuroda menilai besaran stimulus yang diberikan saat ini masih cukup untuk mencapai target inflasi sebesar 2%.Kuroda telah mempertahankan pandangan dalam beberapa bulan terakhir bahwa siklus ekonomi cukup kuat dan utuh. Hal itu melihat laba bersih emiten dan ketatnya pasar tenaga kerja membawa keuntungan harga.“Untuk saat ini, BoJ menilai kebijakannya sudah cukup untuk memberi dampak tren penguatan harga,” ujar Takeshi Minami, Ekonom Norinchukin Research Institute, seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg.BoJ merilis pernyataan singkatnya setelah menggelar rapat kebijakan pagi ini dan menunjukkan adanya voting 8-1 untuk terus memberikan stimulus moneter pada laju tahunan sebesar 80 triliun yen atau US$664 miliar.