EJ's MOMENT: ihsg Juni 2015-September 2015: dibayang-bayangi oleh KECEMASAN GLOBAL @ the Fed

Edy Joen investor yang PALING SUKSES dalam 5 taon raup Rp5T dari modal Rp62jt AZA 

2 BULAN MENUJU KESTABILAN ihsg 2015
Jakarta detik -Keputusan bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS), The Federal Reserve (The Fed) yang menahan suku bunga membuat dampak positif dan negatif. Beberapa spekulasi makin bermunculan pasca pengumuman The Fed, ada yang memperkirakan suku bunga AS naik tahun ini namun ada juga yang meyakini tahun depan.

Direktur Eksekutif Mandiri Institute, Destry Damayanti mengatakan soal bunga the Fed yang tidak berubah, dampak negatifnya bagi Indonesia membuat ketidakpastian, namun ada sisi positifnya.

Menurut Destry efek positifnya adalah memberikan waktu untuk BI atau pemerintah untuk fokus membuat kebijakan domestik sehingga tidak dipengaruhi tekanan oleh The Fed. 

"Kalau bunga The Fed naik, dalam short time kalau ada gejolak kita bisa duga," kata di acara diskusi Energi Kita ddi Gedung Dewan Pers, Jalan Kebon Sirih, Jakarta, Minggu (20/9/2015).

Ia menambahkan dampak negatifnya adalah ketidakpastian akan timbul, karena ada yang meyakini pada Oktober bunga The Fed akan naik. Namun ada yang meyakini bunga The Fed baru akan naik tahun depan.

"Saya melihatnya nggak mungkin pada 2015 naik, karena Amerika hati-hati dengan situasi ekonomi China yang ekonominya melambat dalam. Sekarang dia (China) sudah all out, menurunkan suku bunga, menurunkan pajak penjualan, PPh segala macam, tapi kurang berhasil," katanya.

Menurutnya dengan melihat ekonomi riil China yang masih melemah ada kemungkinan China terus melakukan depresiasi mata uang untuk mendorong ekspornya. Dampaknya bagi Amerika dan Eropa, barang-barang impornya kurang kompetitif dengan China, saat AS menaikkan suku bunga. 

"Amerika bakal mikir, kalau saya naikin bunga , investasi saya pasti kena. Investasi berarti kena ke sisi supply Amerika. Jadi sementara si China ini terus masuk dengan barang yang lebih murah karena ada depresiasi Yuan tersebut. Akhirnya, aku melihat di Amerika ada kemungkinan untuk menggeser lebih lama lagi kenaikan The Fed," katanya.

Ia mengatakan saat ini BI memang masih fokus untuk menekan sisi permintaan (demand) dolar AS dalam mengantisipasi tekanan dari The Fed terkait menjaga rupiah. Misalnya soal pembatasan transaksi dolar AS maksimal US$ 25.000 per bulan di dalam negeri.

"Kami berharap kebijakan ini juga dikembangkan dari sisi supply-nya. Yang dilakukan BI sekarang adalah memperkaya instrumen moneternya. Sekarang belum," katanya.

Selain itu, yang dibutuhkan pelaku bisnis adalah pendalaman di sektor keuangan soal hedging kurs. BI punya salah satu peraturan mengharuskan dunia bisnis yang punya utang luar negeri harus mengamankan 50% utangnya dalam waktu 3 bulan. 

"Berarti harus masuk ke hedging, dia harus masuk ke pasar derivatif. Kita tahu utang luar ngeri swasta besar sekali, ada sekitar US$ 195 miliar dan 20%nya dalam jangka waktu 1- 2 tahun, akan besar sekali kebutuhan dolar," katanya.

(hen/hen) 

business insider: It was the biggest economic event of the month and nothing happened.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rates pegged at 0%-0.25%, where they’ve been since December 2008.

The markets didn’t like it. In the US, both the Dow and S&P 500 closed in negative territory, Japan’s Nikkei was off almost 2% and markets in Europe are almost all red on Friday morning.

Here is what the analysts are saying about it. 

UBS

“The timing of this first step is far less important than the path of rate rises. We expect the journey towards more normal interest rates to be gradual, with hikes coming only when justified by evidence of sustained economic growth. The reluctance of Fed officials to hike now can be linked to market conditions and their eagerness to avoid a premature move that risks stifling growth.”

DEUTSCHE BANK

Analyst: Jim Reid

“So the Fed stands pat and the spell of record low rates continues as concerns about developments abroad and the fragility of markets proved to be enough of a red flag for policymakers. The overall tone and message from both the statement and Fed Chair Yellen certainly felt like it was weighed more towards the dovish end of the scale.”

“There was some support from Yellen on the improvements in domestic activity with both business spending and the labour market in particular highlighted. She also kept the door open for a move this year, including October, but once again the timing was downplayed with the expected path of rate rises re-emphasized as the more important factor.”

FIDELITY WORLDWIDE INVESTMENTS

Analyst: Anna Stupnytska

“The recent tightening in US financial conditions, driven by the strong US dollar and the August sell-off, if sustained, could indeed ultimately result in slower US growth. The state of the Chinese economy and vulnerabilities of other emerging markets add to the overall uncertainty at this point.”

“In this environment it came as no big surprise that the Fed decided to remain in the ‘wait and see’ mode for now. I believe a December hike is still likely at this point, provided data holds up, inflation and inflation expectations show some tentative signs of a reversal and financial conditions ease somewhat. But risks are skewed towards the hiking timeline shifting into 2016 altogether.”

MORGAN STANLEY

Analysts: Ellen Zentner, Robert Rosener, Michel Dilmanian

“At the conclusion of its September 16-17 meeting the Committee took a pass on raising rates, as expected, and crafted a surprisingly dovish statement. The result was not the hawkish pass we had expected, nor was it the dovish pass our rates strategists saw as a risk, but somewhere perfectly balanced in between.”

“A 2015 rate hike remains in play as Chair Yellen underscored that most participants still see a rate hike this year as appropriate, but by no means is a 2015 hike a foregone conclusion.”

HSBC

“The FOMC’s acknowledgement that global economic and financial market  developments are putting downward pressure on inflation should lead financial markets to  focus on these more closely. A stable USD, slightly higher oil prices and further  improvement in the labor market in coming months should combine to create conditions  for a rate hike in December. We expect only two 25bp hikes in 2016 and two in 2017.”

STATE STREET

Analyst: Lee Ferridge

“The consensus going into today’s announcement was fairly split on whether rates would be raised.  After reading the statement, it seems that concerns over China, late-summer volatility and stubbornly low inflation influenced their decision to keep rates unchanged. Additionally, the Fed’s international focus has increased the importance of US dollar strength, with the dollar becoming the doorway by which the global economy affects the domestic one. Now it’s a waiting game again and every upcoming meeting is on the table so long as data and conditions can justify a move. However, there is no guarantee that the conditions will be satisfactory ahead of the end of 2015.”

BARCLAYS

Analysts: Rajiv Setia, Michael Pond

“The Fed refrained from raising rates, citing the potential drag from global economic and financial developments and the move lower in inflation breakevens. The updated forecasts show a consensus at the Fed for hiking once before the end of the year, followed by a gradual hiking cycle.”

RBS

Analyst: Michelle Girard

“We have long highlighted the fact that if the Fed did not hike in September, we would assign highest odds for the first Fed move coming in March (the first meeting with a press conference in 2016). That is officially our new call. We put the odds of a Fed rate hike in October at 5%, the odds of a rate hike in December at 35% and the odds of a rate hike in March at 60%.”

BNP PARIBAS

“The September FOMC statement was definitely dovish, as we had expected. No rate hike, increased mention of factors negative on inflation, reference to financial turbulence and an increased reference to foreign developments all pointed the same way. Dipping the NAIRUestimate down and reducing the core inflation forecast in the next two years underlined this.”

CITI

Analyst: Jabaz Mathai

“The post FOMC rally in the rates curve is justified. We think that it is quite likely that the FOMC may not get an all clear signal for lift off in one month’s time either on the external growth side or on the inflation side – two factors that drove today’s decision. Indeed liftoff may very well be pushed to 2016.”

WELLS FARGO

Analysts: John E. Silvia, Sarah House

“Global developments were brought into the discussion. These developments bring in another element of uncertainty. We believe that a resolution of the global picture is unlikely to provide much guidance in the short run. While it may be said that a great majority of the FOMC expect a rate increase by the end of this year, this appears inconsistent with any reasonable expectation of a resolution of the global picture. Perhaps the global issue is just a temporary reason for no action.”