The Dow industrials climbed 140 points and posted their biggest
two-day advance in nearly three weeks, as expectations for an
interest-rate increase from the Federal Reserve faded.
Fed officials are debating whether to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006, which would mark a shift away from the easy monetary policy that has been in place since the financial crisis. The six-year bull run in stocks has been driven in part by low interest rates, which have made returns on stocks more appealing than keeping money in cash. The decision is due Thursday afternoon.
Any increase in rates is expected to be slim, just a quarter of a percentage point, but investors are anxiously awaiting the Fed’s decision, which many still think could go either way. Rate-increase cycles can lead to unexpected results, and uncertainty around the timing of a move higher could spur stock swings in an already volatile market environment.
“We’re moving from a central bank that has been accommodative for
years to one that is going to say that we’ve gotten to a point where the
U.S. economy is healthy enough that we need to shift our policy,” said
Jack Caffrey, equity portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
“That’s a big deal.”
Investors appear to be lowering their expectations that the Fed could raise rates at the close of its two-day meeting Thursday. Futures markets showed a 21% likelihood of a rate increase, down from 45% a month ago, according to data from CME Group Inc.
Movements in interest-rate-sensitive shares also signaled expectations the Fed could hold pat. Stocks in the utility sector, which pay high dividends and could be less attractive than bonds if rates go up, rose slightly more than the broader market on Wednesday. Financial stocks, which would benefit from higher interest rates, lagged behind the S&P 500.
About 46% of economists recently surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted the Fed’s first rate increase would come in September. In early August, before a surprised devaluation of China’s currency set off turmoil in stock and currency markets around the world, the figure was 82%.
“We’re still 50-50 on whether they will raise rates,” said Diane Jaffee, a senior portfolio manager at TCW Group Inc.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, to 16739.95, up 368.99 points over the past two days. The S&P 500 gained 17.22 points, or 0.9%, to 1995.31. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 28.72 points, or 0.6%, to 4889.24. Shares of energy companies rose the most, as an unexpected drop in crude stockpiles sent oil prices up 5.7%. A rally in other commodity prices, including gold and copper, boosted shares of materials companies.
U.S. Treasury prices pulled back, with the yield on the two-year note closing at a more than four-year high, at 0.811%, as gains in stocks and commodities sapped demand for haven debt. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
The two-year yield is sensitive to changes in the Fed’s interest-rate policy. While the yield rose, the move was mild compared with Tuesday’s selloff. “It is a tossup, but my bias is that [the Fed] won’t move,” said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group. “Inflation is still tame, and the financial markets remain unsettled. Why not wait for a few more weeks?”
In late-afternoon trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.301%, the highest closing level in nearly two months, compared with 2.281% Tuesday.
While the prospect of rates moving from near zero for the first time since 2008 has unnerved some investors, data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch show stocks actually have tended to rally in recent periods of rate increases.
ENLARGE
wsj: When the Fed raised interest rates from 2004 to 2006, the S&P
500 rose 16%, including dividends. In the six months after the last rate
increase of that period in 2006, the S&P 500 rose 7%, including
dividends, the data show. An increase in rates is usually driven by an
improving economy, which bodes well for corporate profits and future
stock gains.
The S&P 500 rose 8%, including dividends, when the Fed lifted interest rates from 1999 to 2000 and gained 7% in the six months after the last increase of that period, also including dividends. The broad-market index increased 3% as the central bank raised rates from 1994 to 1995, but slipped 1% in the six months after that last rate increase.
“If they don’t do it, people are going to continue to sit on their hands for another three months,” said Doug Foreman, chief investment officer at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management, which manages $9.9 billion. “I really hope they do it to get it out of the way.”
The Fed considers employment and inflation as it makes monetary-policy decisions. Employment has improved since the financial crisis, but inflation has remained low, in part due to a slump in energy prices over the past year.
On Wednesday, the Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices fell in August due largely to depressed oil markets, marking the first decline since January. The consumer-price index slipped 0.1% from July, missing expectations for no change in overall prices.
Stocks rose overseas as well. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 1.5%, and China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 4.9%.
The Fed is scheduled to release an interest-rate statement Thursday along with updated projections on U.S. interest rates, growth and inflation, followed by a news conference by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA—Jelang rapat The Federal Reserves, investor disarankan tidak mengambil posisi dulu.
Fed officials are debating whether to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006, which would mark a shift away from the easy monetary policy that has been in place since the financial crisis. The six-year bull run in stocks has been driven in part by low interest rates, which have made returns on stocks more appealing than keeping money in cash. The decision is due Thursday afternoon.
Any increase in rates is expected to be slim, just a quarter of a percentage point, but investors are anxiously awaiting the Fed’s decision, which many still think could go either way. Rate-increase cycles can lead to unexpected results, and uncertainty around the timing of a move higher could spur stock swings in an already volatile market environment.
An investor at a
brokerage house in Beijing on Thursday. Investors remain upbeat ahead of
this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Photo:
Associated Press
Investors appear to be lowering their expectations that the Fed could raise rates at the close of its two-day meeting Thursday. Futures markets showed a 21% likelihood of a rate increase, down from 45% a month ago, according to data from CME Group Inc.
Movements in interest-rate-sensitive shares also signaled expectations the Fed could hold pat. Stocks in the utility sector, which pay high dividends and could be less attractive than bonds if rates go up, rose slightly more than the broader market on Wednesday. Financial stocks, which would benefit from higher interest rates, lagged behind the S&P 500.
About 46% of economists recently surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted the Fed’s first rate increase would come in September. In early August, before a surprised devaluation of China’s currency set off turmoil in stock and currency markets around the world, the figure was 82%.
“We’re still 50-50 on whether they will raise rates,” said Diane Jaffee, a senior portfolio manager at TCW Group Inc.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, to 16739.95, up 368.99 points over the past two days. The S&P 500 gained 17.22 points, or 0.9%, to 1995.31. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 28.72 points, or 0.6%, to 4889.24. Shares of energy companies rose the most, as an unexpected drop in crude stockpiles sent oil prices up 5.7%. A rally in other commodity prices, including gold and copper, boosted shares of materials companies.
U.S. Treasury prices pulled back, with the yield on the two-year note closing at a more than four-year high, at 0.811%, as gains in stocks and commodities sapped demand for haven debt. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
The two-year yield is sensitive to changes in the Fed’s interest-rate policy. While the yield rose, the move was mild compared with Tuesday’s selloff. “It is a tossup, but my bias is that [the Fed] won’t move,” said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group. “Inflation is still tame, and the financial markets remain unsettled. Why not wait for a few more weeks?”
In late-afternoon trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.301%, the highest closing level in nearly two months, compared with 2.281% Tuesday.
While the prospect of rates moving from near zero for the first time since 2008 has unnerved some investors, data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch show stocks actually have tended to rally in recent periods of rate increases.
ENLARGE
The S&P 500 rose 8%, including dividends, when the Fed lifted interest rates from 1999 to 2000 and gained 7% in the six months after the last increase of that period, also including dividends. The broad-market index increased 3% as the central bank raised rates from 1994 to 1995, but slipped 1% in the six months after that last rate increase.
“If they don’t do it, people are going to continue to sit on their hands for another three months,” said Doug Foreman, chief investment officer at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management, which manages $9.9 billion. “I really hope they do it to get it out of the way.”
The Fed considers employment and inflation as it makes monetary-policy decisions. Employment has improved since the financial crisis, but inflation has remained low, in part due to a slump in energy prices over the past year.
On Wednesday, the Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices fell in August due largely to depressed oil markets, marking the first decline since January. The consumer-price index slipped 0.1% from July, missing expectations for no change in overall prices.
The Fed is scheduled to release an interest-rate statement Thursday along with updated projections on U.S. interest rates, growth and inflation, followed by a news conference by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA—Jelang rapat The Federal Reserves, investor disarankan tidak mengambil posisi dulu.
Pada perdagangan Rabu (16/9/2015), indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) turun 0,33% ke 4.332,51. IHSG turun sendiri di tengah penguatan indeks di bursa Asia Tenggara, termasuk China, Hong Kong, dan India. Nilai transaksi harian hanya Rp3,62 triliun, jauh lebih rendah dari rerata nilai transaksi harian Rp5,83 triliun.
Aksi jual bersih investor asing kemarin Rp378,7 miliar sehingga menambah total jual bersih investor asing sejak awal tahun hingga kemarin menjadi Rp9,44 triliun.
KDB Daewoo Securities menyarankan agar investor tidak mengambil posisi menjelang kenaikan suku bunga the Fed. KDB menilai kenaikan suku bunga The Fed akan berpengaruh signifikan pada pasar modal dan perekonomian Indonesia. Dampak langsung yang terjadi adalah keluarnya modal atau aliran dana asing dari Indonesia.
“Ini juga akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi global dan pergerakan mata uang secara signifikan. Di Indonesia, kami melihat akan terjadi depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar,” kata Taye Shim, Head of Research KDB Daewoo Securities dalam risetnya, Rabu (16/9/2015).
Menurut Taye, dampak kenaikan Fed Fund Rate akan sangat terasa di pasar ekuitas dan berpengaruh terhadap pendapatan perusahaan. Pasalnya, kenaikan bunga acuan tersebut akan mendongkrak nilai portfolio saham di AS.
Hal ini kemudian membuat investor memilih untuk beralih dari pasar modal Indonesia ke AS sehingga membuat imbal hasil (yield) efek lokal menjadi lebih rendah. Akibatnya aliran dana asing akan banyak yang keluar dari Indonesia dan melemahkan mata uang rupiah.
Oleh sebab itu, Taye menyarankan agar pelaku pasar modal mempertahankan sikap konservatif dan tidak merekomendasikan investor untuk mengambil posisi menjelang kenaikan suku bunga AS itu.
“Hal ini terutama karena pasar telah diperhitungkan dalam skenario "tidak ada kenaikan suku bunga", menyiratkan sulitnya keadaan berbalik bahkan jika Fed untuk mempertahankan suku bunganya,” jelasnya.
Hans Kwee, Direktur Investa Saran Mandiri mengatakan kemungkinan besar, The Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunganya pada September ini. Dia justru beranggapan, bahwa kenaikan suku bunga bank sentral AS tersebut akan naik pada Maret tahun depan.
Oleh sebab itu, dia menilai agar investor tidak menahan diri dalam berinvestasi di pasar saham. Untuk investor yang memiliki time horizon cukup panjang, minimal 2 tahun, bisa melakukan akumulasi beli di saham-saham infrastruktur, konstruksi, , dan semen. “Lima tahun ke depan, itu akan menguntungkan,” kata Hans saat dihubungi Bisnis, Rabu (16/9).
Sementara, untuk investor jangka pendek atau trader bisa melakukan akumulasi beli kalau ada peluang, dan menjualnya kembali bila diperlukan.
“Kalau dilihat tidak ada kenaikan September. Namun, ketidakpastian tetap ada karena September tetap ada pertemuan FOMC, Desember juga ada lagi pertemuan.”
... setiap hari di bursa saham itu PENUH KETIDAKPASTIAN, karna semua sentimen berada n bercampuraduk menimbulkan banyak ekspektasi
... setiap hari di bursa saham itu PENUH KEPASTIAN, yaitu kepastian bahwa tren harga saham akan terjadi, baek yang NAEK, TURUN, atawa yang STAGNAN
... setiap hari di bursa saham selalu ada ekspektasi positif n negatif
... setiap hari di bursa saham ada kondisi yang menggembirakan dan kondisi yang menyedihkan
... setiap hari di bursa saham, kayaknya, gw selalu berada di pasar melakukan TRADING n INVEST, as always :)
... setiap hari di bursa saham itu PENUH KETIDAKPASTIAN, karna semua sentimen berada n bercampuraduk menimbulkan banyak ekspektasi
... setiap hari di bursa saham itu PENUH KEPASTIAN, yaitu kepastian bahwa tren harga saham akan terjadi, baek yang NAEK, TURUN, atawa yang STAGNAN
... setiap hari di bursa saham selalu ada ekspektasi positif n negatif
... setiap hari di bursa saham ada kondisi yang menggembirakan dan kondisi yang menyedihkan
... setiap hari di bursa saham, kayaknya, gw selalu berada di pasar melakukan TRADING n INVEST, as always :)
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